Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitics News, Vance Analysis 2
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Table of Contents 📖
"And I think, honestly, we've done something that almost nobody thought could be done. I'm very proud of it."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War Update video (part 3 for the 17th of July). He notes that there is a lot of content to get through.
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F-16s not to strike deep into Russia
🎦 00:15-01:33⏩
Pentagon Speaker Pat Ryder has confirmed that F-16s will be able to launch strikes on temporarily occupied territories in Ukraine, but not deep into Russia. Jonathan is "deeply disappointed" by this. He believes that F-16s will be able to strike into Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, but not into Russia (e.g. Belgorod) as the US don't want to risk unintended consequences and escalation.
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France's Prime Minister resigns
🎦 01:33-02:11⏩
French Prime Minister Gabriel Atal has submitted his resignation to President Macron. He will run an interim government until a new one is appointed. There are still arguments going on between the different factions in each coalition, particularly the left-wing coalition. Sébastien Lecornu will remain Minister of the Armed Forces until the next government is formed.
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French military aid to Ukraine
🎦 02:11-03:50⏩
- Jonathan believes that France's military aid to Ukraine has been more limited than he would like to see.
- He acknowledges that they're helping with intelligence (e.g. they have military spy satellites).
- France is the second largest arms exporter after the US and has pledged to spend 2% of GDP on defence.
- Under Lecornu's leadership, KDS France has been able to produce 78 guns in 2024 to meet Ukrainian operational needs.
- He has initiated weapon co-production projects on Ukrainian territory.
- Although there's more room for improvement in terms of material aid, France's rhetoric has been very strong.
- Jonathan believes that Jordan Bardella (Rassemblement National) would like to lead the government, but the coalition on the right doesn't seem to have enough support.
Hungary's Presidency of the EU Council
🎦 03:50-05:13⏩
- The EU cannot legally deprive Hungary of the right to preside over the Council. This is in answer to letters from European Parliament members who have been complaining about Hungary's policies.
- The Hungarian presidency falls on a period when the EU Council won't make key decisions, which is a relief as confidence in Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is extremely low.
- European leaders are boycotting his policies.
Czech Republic exports to Kyrgyzstan
🎦 05:13-06:06⏩
- There's a new all-time high for Czech exports to Kyrgyzstan.
- This is a way for countries to get exports into Russia through the back door.
- Jonathan points out that it's not the Czech Republic's fault, as it's individual companies making these decisions.
- He believes that it's very difficult to close the loopholes.
Russian State TV Threatens Nuclear Strikes
🎦 06:06-07:00⏩
- Anton Grishenko, a Russian state TV channel, showed a map of nuclear strikes on European capitals.
- Grishenko stated that Britain is the most vulnerable and three missiles would be enough to collapse civilisation.
- Jonathan points out that this is what Russia thinks and is not something that the UK would do on national television.
- He is concerned that a significant proportion of politicians, including those who could take over the US in November, want to appease Russia.
Spying in Estonia
🎦 07:00-08:15⏩
- Vyacheslav Morozov, a widely respected scholar of political science at Estonia's premier university, has been convicted of spying for Russia.
- For many, this is not surprising, as many countries previously under Russia's sphere of influence are still influenced to some extent.
- This shows the challenge the Baltics and Eastern European nations face as they attempt to gain independence and national identity.
- Jonathan finds it insane that some would choose to side with a dictatorship.
JD Vance as Donald Trump's Running Mate
🎦 08:15-09:13⏩
- Jonathan shares an analysis by Adam Kidd of JD Vance's selection as Donald Trump's running mate.
- Kidd suggests that Vance was a last-minute decision.
- Jonathan discusses a recent assassination attempt against Trump and the rumour that there was an Iranian plot to assassinate Trump.
- This information is concerning to Jonathan.
Russian Media on the Assassination Attempt
🎦 09:13-11:28⏩
- Russian Media Monitor Julia Davis reports that Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov and his guests discussed the attempt on Trump's life, stating that it would ensure Trump's return to the White House.
- They also suggested that it would be a death blow to Ukrainians, who they claimed would march on Berlin with Russians.
- Jonathan finds this concerning and suggests that the assassination attempt is not good for Europe. He encourages them to support Ukraine and do all they can to deny Russia its objectives.
- He states that if Russian propagandists are happy with a candidate, it's likely that we should be voting against them.
- He notes that The Bulwark, a conservative but anti-Trump media outlet, has also highlighted the pro-Russian voices backing Vance.
- The Bulwark says that Vance earned praise from Sputnik (the Russian propaganda network) for telling Tucker Carlson that Ukraine should be defunded.
Lobbying for JD Vance
🎦 11:28-13:46⏩
- Jonathan highlights an Axios article which reports that a secret lobbying campaign continued until the morning Vance was chosen.
- Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson and tech investor David Sachs all called Trump to try and get Vance selected.
- Jonathan believes that these three people are amongst the most anti-Ukraine individuals in the US and appear to be forming the backbone of the upcoming Trump presidency.
- This is particularly worrying, as Musk has pledged $45 million a month to the Trump campaign.
- Jonathan also discusses Liz Cheney, who is a Republican lawmaker and a strong critic of Trump.
- Cheney believes that Vance would overthrow the election and seize power illegally.
- She also stated that Trump's GOP is no longer the party of Lincoln, Reagan or the Constitution.
J.D. Vance's Relationship with Ukrainian Americans
🎦 13:46-19:31⏩
- Jonathan moves on to discuss J.D. Vance's relationship with the Ukrainian American community in Ohio.
- He plays an excerpt from The Daily Telegraph podcast "Ukraine: The Latest" in which they discuss the community in Ohio and Vance's lack of support for Ukraine.
- Cara McGugan, host of the podcast, discusses her time reporting on Vance's Senate race.
- She points out that Ukrainian voters in Ohio, a community that had never voted Republican before, were grappling with the issue of Vance's lack of support for Ukraine.
- She notes that he had initially said he didn't care what happened in Ukraine, before later backtracking and saying he wanted Ukrainians to be successful but would turn off the money spigot.
- McGugan believes that Vance is a slick politician, but not someone who is willing to speak to everyone.
- He refused to speak to her at a clambake despite her waiting two hours. He slammed his car door in her face and refused to comment.
- McGugan states that Vance did not express any empathy for the Ukrainian American community during the election and that he was not someone they would vote for.
- She shares a range of personal stories about the community's deep connection with Ukraine.
- She concludes by highlighting that the Ukrainian American community in Ohio is deeply hurt by Vance's lack of support for Ukraine and have turned away from him.
Nikki Haley's Flip-Flop on Trump
🎦 19:31-20:39⏩
- Jonathan mentions that Nikki Haley, a strong supporter of Ukraine, has gone back on her criticisms of Trump during the Republican National Committee Convention.
- He understands why she has done this, as it's politically convenient for her future political aspirations.
- Haley has previously called Trump "unhinged" and criticised him for his stance on Russia.
- She has now fallen in line with the party and is backing Trump, which Jonathan finds concerning.
Boris Johnson's Meeting with Trump
🎦 20:39-21:20⏩
- Jonathan shares that Boris Johnson, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, has met with Trump and discussed Ukraine with him.
- He believes that Trump will be strong and decisive in supporting Ukraine's democracy.
- However, Jonathan points out that this depends on who you read.
Trump's Stance on Russia Sanctions
🎦 21:20-22:13⏩
- Jonathan discusses Trump's stance on Russia sanctions and the idea that he will stop sanctions against Russia if he wins the election.
- He believes that people like Elon Musk, who relies on Russian natural resources, will pressure Trump to lift sanctions.
- He highlights that if sanctions are lifted, the entire economic war against Russia will collapse and Russia will be able to prosecute the war with impunity.
Trump's Economic Plans
🎦 22:13-25:13⏩
- Jonathan shares Trump's economic plans, which include increasing oil and gas production, controlling migration and raising tariffs on imports from China.
- He points out that the US is already drilling more oil than it ever has in its history.
- He suggests that Trump's plans will be hugely inflationary, and that economists are sceptical of their effectiveness.
- Jonathan argues that Trump's positions are not fiscally conservative and actually represent a form of central planning and protectionism, which he finds strange.
- He believes that these positions look like left-wing populism, although Trump's supporters won't want to admit that.
Harris Outperforming Biden in Polls
🎦 25:13-26:08⏩
- Jonathan shares that new polls show Kamala Harris outperforming Joe Biden in Virginia and Pennsylvania.
- He believes that Harris should replace Biden.
- He also believes that there will be an "October Surprise" right before the November election in the form of a recording of Trump using the N-word, which he believes will be released to damage his campaign.
Biden's Potential October Surprise
🎦 26:08-27:14⏩
- Jonathan wonders whether Biden is holding on to his candidacy because of the people around him, his pride, and because he has something in his pocket that could blow the race out of the water for Republicans.
- He suggests that if the recording of Trump exists and is released, it could cause a backlash from black and brown voters, potentially leading to a reversal of fortunes for Biden.
- However, he questions whether this would be enough to win the election or too risky to rely on.
RFK Jr.'s Involvement
🎦 27:14-28:05⏩
- Jonathan shares that a recording of the third-party candidate RFK Jr. has been released in which he talks about vaccines and claims they will win.
- This suggests that RFK Jr. is working on Trump's side to steal votes from Biden.
- Jonathan believes that RFK Jr. may be expecting a position in a Trump administration.
The Assassination Attempt
🎦 28:05-29:55⏩
- Jonathan speculates that the assassination attempt on Trump may blow over sooner than expected.
- He believes it won't in the Republican electorate, but the fact that the shooter is not clearly a Democrat activist might lessen the impact.
- He highlights analysis which suggests that the shooter's family were in the top 20 people in their locality who were prime for GOP narrative and propaganda.
- He shares that the shooter was a registered Republican, had conservative views and friends who wore MAGA hats, which suggests that he was not a left-wing activist.
- Jonathan notes that this isn't what Marjorie Taylor Greene and J.D. Vance initially wanted, as they hoped the shooter would be linked to Biden.
The Rhetoric of Trump and the GOP
🎦 29:55-33:11⏩
- Jonathan explores the rhetoric surrounding the assassination attempt.
- He points out that many Republican media sources and lawmakers claim that the attack was a result of "over the top" Democratic rhetoric.
- He argues that the rhetoric is one-sided and that the GOP's rhetoric has been far more damaging.
- He uses several examples to illustrate this, including:
- Trump's sharing of President Obama's address, which led to a Trump loyal gunman being arrested outside Obama's home.
- Trump's long history of inciting violence against the press, poll workers, and law enforcement.
- Trump's praising of the January 6th insurrectionists and his encouragement for them to kill Mike Pence.
- Trump's promotion of conspiracy theories and his mocking of the attempted assassination of Nancy Pelosi.
- The fact that prominent Republicans are now living in fear of MAGA Republicans.
- He concludes that Trump has no ability to unify the country and that the rhetoric of the GOP is toxic.
Trump's Rhetoric: The Unifier?
🎦 33:11-37:45⏩
- Jonathan shares an article from the New York Times which states that Trump has never sounded like this before, referring to his rhetoric about being a unifier.
- Jonathan highlights Trump's inflammatory rhetoric, such as his claims that our cities are choking to death, our states are dying, and our country is dying.
- He argues that Trump's rhetoric is far more dangerous than it has been in the past and that he is likely to repeat this divisive language very soon.
- He shares Trump's claims that he is a "unifier" whilst simultaneously claiming to "demolish the deep state," "expel warmongers," "drive out globalists," "cast out communists, Marxists, fascists," and "rout the fake news media".
- He discusses Steve Bannon, a key figure in Trump's orbit, and his role as an in-house philosopher for MAGA.
- Bannon states that Trump's campaign speeches are about revenge and that he is using this language to put his rivals on notice.
- Jonathan highlights Trump's emphasis on power and wealth, which he believes shows what is truly important to him.
Crime Rates in the US
🎦 37:45-40:31⏩
- Jonathan discusses crime rates in the US, highlighting that they are actually looking pretty good.
- He shares data showing a significant drop in the homicide rate since 2020.
- He acknowledges that there is a lot in the article he is discussing, but focuses on the aspects that relate to Ukraine.
QAnon and the Stolen Children Narrative
🎦 40:31-43:02⏩
- Jonathan shares a story about a woman at one of Trump's rallies who claimed that the murder of Riley Broussard, a beautiful American college student, was a tragedy and concerning for families.
- She also claimed that tens of thousands of children had gone missing in Ukraine and that the Biden administration wasn't acknowledging this.
- She attributed this to human trafficking, pedophilia, the Illuminati, and a conspiracy involving Hunter Biden, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton and Hollywood.
- Jonathan points out that this is a QAnon theory of the world.
- He shares that the woman also stated that illegal immigration was the most important issue for her in the election.
- He notes that many children were indeed abducted from Ukraine by Russian soldiers in the early days of the war and are being held in Russia for re-education and propaganda purposes.
- However, he emphasizes that this appears to be different from what the woman was talking about, as she believes that the missing children are being trafficked by Democrats.
- He concludes that this is a dangerous example of how the information space is being filled with toxic rhetoric and conspiracy theories.
Trump's Rhetoric: "Conquering Our Country"
🎦 43:02-44:06⏩
- Jonathan plays a clip of Trump making incredibly divisive claims about how Joe Biden is a "crime against humanity," "stopping the invasion," "stopping the killing," "stopping the bloodshed" and "ending the agony of our people," "the plunder of our cities," "the sacking of our towns," and "the conquest of our country."
- Jonathan highlights that these claims are not only untrue but also dangerous.
- He argues that if you're complaining about Biden's rhetoric and blaming him for Trump being shot, you're not reading the data correctly.
Both-Sides-ism and the Threat to Democracy
🎦 44:07-45:43⏩
- Jonathan shares that both Trump and Democrats are attacking each other as a grave threat to democracy.
- He states that the Democrats base this on what Trump and his allies say, whereas Trump makes things up.
- He is concerned that the media is not making this distinction clear and that some media figures are eager to portray Trump as a unifier after the shooting.
- He highlights that Trump has just unleashed a rant calling January 6th a hoax and depicting the justice system as corrupt.
- He argues that Trump's desire to pardon January 6th insurrectionists and his continued claims that the insurrection was "just fine" are incompatible with being a unifier.
- He states that Republicans are using the shooting to shut down talk about the threat Trump poses to democracy.
- He concludes that only Democrats are being faithful to reality here and that Trump poses a foundational threat to American governance.
MAGA and Political Violence
🎦 45:43-46:59⏩
- Jonathan emphasizes that MAGA is the only major faction in US life that valorizes political violence.
- He states that Trump should not be called a unifier until he renounces his vow to pardon the January 6th insurrectionists, commits not to prosecuting his foes, stops smearing law enforcement as corrupt and tells his allies to stop treating any loss as illegitimate.
- He shares his concern about Project 2025, a blueprint for Trump's presidency created by the Heritage Foundation.
- He points out that Clarence Thomas, who has been given immunity by Justice Thomas, has received gifts from nefarious foreign entities and is making judgments concerning Trump.
- He concludes that this is a scary situation and that the only hope for Democrats is a change of candidate and an October surprise that could ruin things for Trump.
US Politics and Ukraine's Future
🎦 46:59-48:13⏩
- Jonathan acknowledges that he has discussed a lot of US politics recently, but believes it is important to do so as it directly affects the future of Ukraine.
- He believes that if Trump wins in November, Ukraine will be screwed.
- He suggests that if Biden wins, Ukraine has a chance, although he does acknowledge that Biden is weak on Ukraine.
- He believes that Biden needs to be stronger in his stance on Ukraine and that his anti-escalation rhetoric needs to be thrown out.
- He concludes that he would prefer a weak but morally correct stance from Biden than a strong but inadequate stance.
Wrap Up
🎦 48:13-48:13⏩
Jonathan signs off and says that he'll speak soon.
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