Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, S-300: Watching It Burn
Title:Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, S-300: Watching It Burn Topics:Hello Team, Russian Losses from Ukrainian General Staff for 24th February 2025, Ukrainian drone strike destroys Russian S-300V anti-ballistic missile system in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Special Kherson Cat report
Table of Contents 📖
"I do not want my picture in your offices. The president is not an idol, an icon or a portrait. Hang your kids' photos instead and look at them each time you are making a decision."
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:30⏩
- Jonathan welcomes the team to the Ukraine War News Update for 25th February 2025.
- He mentions enjoying marmite on sourdough toast and tea.
- Notes that information from the front line is limited due to geopolitical news dominating, particularly events "across the pond".
- Expects this to be a quick "hits and losses" video due to the limited information.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses from Ukrainian General Staff for 24th February 2025
🎦 00:30-01:33⏩
- Jonathan presents the Russian losses as reported by the Ukrainian General Staff for the previous day (24th February 2025).
- Personnel: 1,300 - a slight increase.
- Tanks: 5 - considered low.
- Armoured Fighting Vehicles: 11 - about half the daily average.
- Artillery Systems: 26 - above the daily average but less than the previous week's high numbers. Jonathan notes Ukraine has been effective at destroying Russian artillery.
- Anti-Aircraft Warfare Equipment: 2 - described as "good".
- Jonathan expresses frustration at the lack of updated loss lists from Andrew Perpetua and is keen to see what anti-aircraft systems have been listed.
Ukrainian drone strike destroys Russian S-300V anti-ballistic missile system in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
🎦 01:33-03:28⏩
- A Ukrainian drone strike successfully destroyed a rare Russian 9A82 Tellar, which is part of an S-300V anti-ballistic missile system, in Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- The drone filmed the S-300 system burning after the strike.
- Jonathan describes this as "fascinating stuff" and "good news for the Ukrainians" as it is a "really high value target".
Special Kherson Cat reports on S-300 destruction and Russian crew deaths
🎦 03:28-03:53⏩
- Special Kherson Cat reported the S-300 system was destroyed by a "heavy night bomber" on the Zaporizhzhia front.
- They detailed that after the strike, the drone landed to observe the burning system.
- Two Russian crew members reportedly approached to inspect what had happened and were killed as a "bonus".
- Jonathan finds this information "interesting".
Russian research vessel sinks in Novorossiysk
🎦 03:53-04:24⏩
- Footage shows a Russian research vessel sinking in Novorossiysk.
- The vessel is covered in ice, which Jonathan suggests may have contributed to it becoming unbalanced and sinking.
- He also considers that damage to the jetty might be a factor.
- Novorossiysk is noted as the main current base for the Russian Black Sea Fleet, although it is not a large port.
Large Russian drone and missile attack on Ukraine overnight, Kyiv and Zhytomyr targeted
🎦 04:24-05:39⏩
- Russia launched a wide-ranging air attack on Ukraine overnight, using a large number of drones - almost a record of 213.
- Missiles: 6 out of 7 Kh-101 cruise missiles were intercepted.
- Drones: 133 out of 213 drones were shot down, with 79 lost without causing damage. Jonathan calculates that effectively only one drone got through, highlighting an "exceptionally good interception rate".
- The attack targeted several regions, including Kyiv and Zhytomyr.
- Ukraine's response involved aviation, air defence, and electronic warfare.
Kyiv Metro congestion after air raid alerts
🎦 05:39-06:31⏩
- The large Russian air attack caused long air raid alerts in Kyiv.
- Public transport was heavily disrupted, with long queues forming at metro stations after the all-clear was given at 08:30 in the morning.
- Videos show large crowds waiting to enter Chernihivska metro station and inside another unnamed metro station, illustrating severe congestion as people returned to work and sought shelter.
- Jonathan compares the scenes to London's tube but notes Kyiv's situation was much worse.
Quiet week for Ukrainian strikes into Russia
🎦 06:31-06:42⏩
- Jonathan notes it has been a relatively quiet week for Ukrainian strikes into Russia, including overnight.
- He expresses surprise at this lull in activity.
Russia reduces payments to new military recruits in Samara region
🎦 06:42-07:33⏩
- Referring to economic analyst Evgen Istrabin (PS01), Jonathan reports that payments to new Russian military recruits in the Samara region have been significantly reduced.
- Payments have decreased by 1.5 million rubles, from 4 million to 2.5 million rubles (including both local and MOD payments).
- Istrabin suggests that if this trend is widespread and continues, Russia may struggle to maintain its army.
Possible reasons for reduced Russian recruitment payments
🎦 07:33-08:02⏩
- Jonathan speculates on the reasons behind the reduction in Russian recruitment payments, suggesting three possibilities:
- Running out of money: Russia may be facing financial constraints and is cutting back on expenses.
- Anticipation of peace deal: The Russian government might be expecting a peace deal soon and is slowing down recruitment efforts.
- Preparation for mass mobilisation: Conversely, it could signal a move towards forced national mobilisation, reducing the need to incentivise voluntary recruitment with high payments.
- Jonathan admits he is unsure of the correct explanation.
US and Ukraine close to minerals deal worth hundreds of billions of dollars
🎦 08:02-08:17⏩
- Citing Axios and other sources, Jonathan reports that Ukraine and the US are nearing a deal concerning Ukrainian minerals, potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
- He notes that claims about such deals sometimes come from bombastic figures like Donald Trump.
Trump and Macron interaction: Trump's lies and Macron's fact-checking
🎦 08:17-09:28⏩
- Jonathan digresses to comment on an interaction between Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron at the White House.
- Macron initially flattered Trump, but then publicly challenged a lie Trump told.
- Trump's reaction was to immediately repeat the lie after being fact-checked by Macron.
- Jonathan describes Trump as "just a liar", highlighting the interaction as evidence of this.
Details of draft US-Ukraine minerals deal and concerns over its terms
🎦 09:28-10:02⏩
- Referring back to the minerals deal, Jonathan mentions a draft obtained by Axios which indicates the US expressing a desire to keep Ukraine "free, sovereign, and secure".
- He notes conflicting reports about the deal's status and quality, with some saying drafts are "absolute garbage" and unfavourable to Ukraine, while others suggest a deal is close to being signed, implying Ukraine finds it acceptable.
- Jonathan wonders if Ukraine has managed to secure beneficial amendments to the deal.
Russian anger at Putin over potential minerals deal with the US
🎦 10:02-10:55⏩
- Jonathan reports that some Russians are angry with Putin following his statements hinting at deals with the Americans.
- "Zed Patriots" on Telegram criticised Putin for "selling Russia" and betraying what Russian soldiers have fought for.
- Telegram users are using laughing and clown emojis to express their disapproval.
- They accuse Putin of "getting on all fours in front of the Americans".
- They contrast this with Putin's past actions, such as kissing the Quran, suggesting he is more committed to Islam and migrants than to the Russian people and their interests in the war.
Russian concerns over handing Ukrainian land to Americans for mining
🎦 10:55-11:45⏩
- Continuing with Russian criticism, Jonathan highlights concerns that a minerals deal could involve handing over control of occupied Ukrainian territories, rich in rare earth minerals, to the Americans.
- Russian soldiers and people on the ground are reportedly asking why they are fighting and dying only for Americans to profit from Ukrainian resources.
- Jonathan notes that any minerals deal would likely involve agreements concerning occupied Ukrainian territories, necessitating a deal with Russia.
EU offers Ukraine a "mutually beneficial" minerals deal, outbidding the US
🎦 11:45-13:02⏩
- The EU has offered Ukraine an alternative minerals deal, described as "mutually beneficial" and less "extortionate" than the proposed US deal.
- European Commissioner Stéphane Sojourné has offered Kyiv this alternative.
- Michael Weiss suggests the EU is trying to outbid Trump.
- Stratcom Centre reports the EU proposal is on "more favourable terms" than the US version.
- Commissioner Sojourné states that 21 out of 30 critical minerals needed by Europe could come from Ukraine in a "mutually beneficial partnership".
- The EU emphasises that their agreement would be genuinely mutually beneficial, contrasting with the US deal which is implied to overwhelmingly benefit the US.
Balancing US and EU minerals deals: US leverage and continued aid
🎦 13:02-14:41⏩
- Jonathan argues that despite the EU deal being potentially more favourable in pure deal terms, Ukraine needs to keep the US "on side".
- Certain forms of assistance can only come from the US.
- He suggests the US minerals deal might be a way for Ukraine to indirectly pay for past US aid, even if it's not ideal.
- Maintaining US support is considered more critical than securing the best possible minerals deal, as the EU is already largely supportive of Ukraine.
- The US has leverage because they could withdraw aid if their terms are not met, while the EU is likely to continue support regardless.
- Trump's transactional approach is highlighted, contrasting with the EU's more consistent support.
Rumours of further US-Russia talks in Riyadh, denied by Russia
🎦 14:41-15:32⏩
- Rumours are circulating, reportedly originating from the US, about further talks between the US and Russia in Riyadh today.
- Russia, via TASS, has formally denied these rumours.
- Jonathan notes that a denial doesn't necessarily mean the talks won't happen, suggesting it could be a formal or strategic denial.
- He speculates that talks might occur "over the heads of Ukraine, about Ukraine, without Ukraine".
Moscow Stock Exchange rises after Putin's statements on rare earths and US cooperation
🎦 15:32-16:02⏩
- The Moscow Stock Exchange is rising following Putin's statements about Russia's rare earth metals and potential cooperation with the US.
- Putin has indicated Russia is "open for business" regarding rare earths, seemingly trying to attract international investment.
- Jonathan suggests that if cooperation on rare earths develops, it could signal the "end of sanctions against Ukraine".
South Korea may be lifting sanctions on Russia for medical equipment
🎦 16:02-16:19⏩
- There are reports that South Korea may have started lifting sanctions against Russia, specifically in the area of medical equipment.
- Jonathan expresses concern that current US actions appear to be benefiting Russia rather than Ukraine.
US votes with Russia and North Korea at UN, abstains on own statement
🎦 16:19-17:05⏩
- Jonathan strongly criticises the US for a UN vote where they sided with Russia and North Korea.
- China abstained, even from a vote supported by Russia and North Korea.
- The US then put forward its own statement, which was amended by European nations.
- Due to these European amendments, the US then abstained from voting on their own amended statement.
- Jonathan describes this as "absolute chaos" and "morally bad", stating that the US has "sided with North Korea".
Devastation in Vovchansk highlights Russian aggression
🎦 17:05-17:34⏩
- Jonathan shows footage of the devastation in Vovchansk, a settlement that strongly resisted Russian forces at the start of the war.
- He describes the images as showing "what liberation looks like" and "what the Russians are doing".
- He expresses disbelief that the US is refusing to recognise Russia as the aggressor in light of such destruction.
Confusion and denial over reported US base withdrawal from Greece
🎦 17:34-18:25⏩
- Jonathan discusses a news report, initially from Greek media and then picked up by mainstream outlets, about the US supposedly withdrawing from a base in Greece.
- This report has been denied by Trump and Senator Rubio as "fake news".
- However, Turkey and Russia have claimed the US is indeed withdrawing.
- Jonathan suggests it might have been "psyops" from another side, causing confusion.
Criticism of pro-Trump supporters ignoring US UN vote
🎦 18:25-19:29⏩
- Jonathan criticises pro-Ukrainian and pro-Trump individuals who highlighted his reporting on the US base withdrawal but remained silent on the US voting with Russia and North Korea at the UN.
- He argues that the UN vote is a far more significant and morally reprehensible issue.
- He challenges supporters of the current US administration to justify or explain this UN vote, calling it "not cool".
European and Canadian leaders support Ukraine in Kyiv
🎦 19:29-20:31⏩
- Jonathan contrasts the US actions at the UN with the positive show of support for Ukraine by European and Canadian leaders who came together in Kyiv.
- He notes the absence of US leaders at this gathering, as they were "too busy voting against Ukraine in the United Nations".
- He shows an image of leaders at the Motherland statue in Kyiv, which he humorously refers to as "Tintits" (a nickname given by Pierre). He acknowledges the nickname is "not good" but amusing.
Zelensky's 2019 inaugural speech quote about photos in offices
🎦 20:31-21:57⏩
- Jonathan shares a quote from Zelensky's 2019 inaugural speech: "I do not want my picture in your offices. The president is not an idol, an icon or a portrait. Hang your kids' photos instead and look at them each time you are making a decision."
- He praises this as a "lovely, lovely thing to say" and "not the sort of thing a dictator would say".
- He contrasts Zelensky's sentiment with leaders like Trump, Putin, and "King John I", who seem to enjoy seeing their pictures displayed.
- Jonathan believes Zelensky's quote is an excellent principle to live by, suggesting that decisions should be made with consideration for future generations ("your kids").
- He implies that this principle is unfortunately not followed by many supporters of the US president, who seem to view him as above criticism.
Wrap up
🎦 21:57-22:01⏩
- Jonathan concludes the video.
- He says "that's enough from me", and signs off with "Take care, guys. Speak soon. Toodlepips."