Ukraine War Update NEWS: AP's Equipment Loss List
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"The better Ukraine do, the more likely it is Putin is going to do something crazy"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:31⏩
Jonathan starts by greeting viewers and explaining that this is a bonus update focusing on recent equipment losses in the Ukraine War. He'll be reviewing Andrew Perpetua's latest data, which he missed in his regular hits and losses update. Jonathan mentions he needs to complete this update today due to personal commitments (rugby).
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Significant Russian Equipment Losses - Andrew Perpetua Data
🎦 00:31-07:37⏩
Jonathan analyses the equipment loss data and explains why a recent claim by Russian milblogger, Slagkov (that Ukraine is suffering 30:1 losses) is "ridiculous"
- Jonathan points out that the real ratio is closer to 5:1 in favour of Ukraine (5 Russian losses for every 1 Ukrainian loss).
- This contradicts Slagkov's claims about Ukrainian losses being significantly higher in the Kursk region.
- Overall, combat losses have been closer to 1:1 in recent times.
Jonathan examines the specific losses visually displayed on screen from Andrew Perpetua's data.
- Ukrainian Losses: A few tanks (including a captured T-72AB), Bradleys and APCs, and an MTLB (damaged). Jonathan observes that the captured T-72AB suggests dynamic warfare in the region with opportunities for both sides to capture vehicles.
- Russian Losses: Significant losses, including EW (Electronic Warfare) Equipment, tanks (including T-72B3s), a very high number of BMPs (various models), BTRs, APCs (including Tiger-Ms and MTLBs), ATVs, and civilian vehicles. Jonathan comments that many of the Russian vehicles have been destroyed, making them irretrievable, which he sees as "catastrophic" for the Russians.
Jonathan compares this data to the Ukrainian General Staff figures, noting a recent spike in reported Russian losses, which aligns with the visual evidence from Andrew Perpetua. This, he suggests, reinforces the credibility of both sources.
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Potential for F-16 Deployment and Long-Range Missiles
🎦 07:37-08:46⏩
- Jonathan discusses rumours about the potential inclusion of medium-range air-to-ground missiles in the next US military aid package, speculating on their potential impact on the battlefield.
- He ponders the possibility of Ukrainian F-16s using these missiles to target Russian positions in Crimea, such as Sevastopol, though he acknowledges uncertainty about their range and the risks involved.
- Despite the ongoing challenges, Jonathan believes that recent developments, including Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets, are positive signs for Ukraine.
Putin's Paradox and the Risks of Escalation
🎦 08:46-11:17⏩
Jonathan acknowledges that while Ukrainian successes are encouraging, they also carry risks.
- Putin's Paradox: He explains his theory about how Ukrainian successes could lead to Putin becoming more reckless. He believes Putin is far more personally invested in the outcome of this war than Zelenskyy.
- Putin's Existential Threat: Jonathan suggests that defeat for Putin would likely result in his removal from power, with dire consequences. He contrasts this with Zelenskyy, who has more options and whose life is not directly at stake in the same way.
- The Dangers of Escalation: Jonathan warns against dismissing Putin's threats as mere bluster. He cautions that underestimating Putin's willingness to escalate the conflict could be dangerous.
Wrap up
🎦 11:17-11:20⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by expressing hope that his analysis has been useful and bids his viewers farewell.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I am unsure about the following terms and their meanings in this context:
"Tikhoretsk" - I assume this is a location in Russia, but more context would be helpful.
"Molkino" - Also seems like a location in Russia, possibly a military base. Clarification on this would be appreciated.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is how I would approach this task:
Understand the context: I will carefully read and understand the provided information about Jonathan MS Pearce, his YouTube channel ATP Geopolitics, and the purpose of "ATP Distilled."
Familiarise myself with the tasks: I will break down the instructions for each task (1 to 6) and make sure I understand the specific requirements and rules for each.
Pay attention to details: I will be meticulous in following the instructions, including the use of British English, correct Ukrainian spellings, and the XML structure.
Focus on accuracy and clarity: I will strive to produce accurate and concise summaries, capturing the essence of Jonathan's analysis and insights.
Seek clarification when needed: I will not hesitate to use the 🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand tag to ask for clarification on any unclear points in the transcript.
