Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"Quote of the video"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes the audience to the second part of the Ukraine War News Update for 29th December 2024.
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Protests in Georgia
🎦 00:11-01:08⏩
Summary of topic 2...
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitical News29/12/2024B
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes the audience to the second part of the Ukraine War News Update for 29th December 2024.
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Protests in Georgia
🎦 00:11-01:08⏩
Protesters are continuing to challenge the pro-Russian faction in Georgia. Today, massive protests called the "Chain of Unity" are planned across the nation, including the capital. These demonstrations coincide with the end of the pro-Western president's term. The former president had said she would try and stay on and stay in place for as long as possible.
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Sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili
🎦 01:09-01:40⏩,01:49-02:00⏩
Bidzina Ivanishvili is the billionaire founder of the Georgian Dream Party and the focus of power in Georgia. The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on Ivanishvili, citing actions that undermine democratic processes on behalf of Russia. These sanctions will have far-reaching implications for Ivanishvili and Georgia's political landscape, including asset freezes, transaction bans, and global isolation. The sanctions will weaken the pro-Russian grip on Georgian politics and pressure the government to pursue democratic reforms.
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Consequences of Sanctions on Georgia
🎦 01:41-01:48⏩,02:01-02:28⏩
The sanctions on Ivanishvili will have significant economic impacts on Georgia. Entities or sectors connected with Ivanishvili could face indirect sanctions, creating uncertainty for investors. Institutions like Cartu Bank, central to his financial power, could face scrutiny. The Georgian Dream party will also be affected, as the sanctions highlight its ties to a sanctioned oligarch. Jonathan notes that while sanctions are aimed at individuals and institutions, they will inevitably impact the Georgian people. He highlights the moral dilemma of causing pain to the populace in the hope of achieving a greater good, such as forcing the government to change course or rerun elections.
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Pressure on Irakli Kobakhidze
🎦 02:29-02:45⏩
Irakli Kobakhidze, the Prime Minister of Georgia and a puppet of Ivanishvili, is reportedly in shock and desperation following the delivery of US Treasury sanctions against his master. There will be pressure on Kobakhidze as Georgia is treated as a pariah state by other democratic entities.
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Former Head of Special Forces Operational Planning Flees Georgia
🎦 02:46-03:43⏩
The former head of Special Forces Operational Planning in Georgia's Ministry of Internal Affairs, Irakli Shaishmelashvili, who resigned in protest of the torture of peaceful protesters, has fled to the US after revealing shocking details about the situation in Georgia. He claims that no misconduct or collective violence by police against protesters or journalists occurs without direct orders from the heads of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and that Ivanishvili remains in contact while dispersing protests. Shaishmelashvili also attended two rallies wearing a mask and claims that peaceful protesters are present, but the Ministry of Internal Affairs aims to provoke and demonise the protests. Group violence by policemen was inflicted on peaceful protesters after their arrest to intimidate them and prevent future protests.
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Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili's Departure
🎦 03:44-05:03⏩
Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili initially vowed not to quit, considering the parliamentary election invalid. She called supporters to the presidential palace on Sunday, one hour before her successor's inauguration. However, Zourabichvili left her official residence but said she's not leaving office. It is speculated that she left to avoid arrest, and her departure may have weakened the opposition's position. There were significant protests on the streets and in towns and cities across Georgia.
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Inauguration of New Georgian President
🎦 05:04-06:06⏩
Mikhail Kavelashvili, a former international footballer, was inaugurated as the new president of Georgia. He is described as a super right-wing, pro-Putin, anti-West individual. Protests continued following his inauguration, with police reportedly arresting protesters indiscriminately and using undue force. Many protesters held up red cards, referencing the new president's footballing heritage, to signify their disapproval.
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Comparison of Georgia to Belarus
🎦 06:07-06:52⏩
Former President Zourabichvili, in an interview with Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart, compared Georgia to Belarus, suggesting that both countries are puppet states of Russia with installed leaders. Jonathan shows footage of Lukashenko and his ministers being served tea during a meeting, highlighting the opulence and dictatorial nature of the regime, which he finds similar to the Georgian Dream scenario. Despite this, the public determination to prevent Georgia from falling into Putin's hands is remarkable.
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Chain of Unity Protest in Tbilisi
🎦 06:53-07:29⏩
Drone footage shows an extensive chain of people throughout Tbilisi, connected in their protest against the ruling government. This demonstration highlights the public's determination to resist the pro-Russian government.
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Russia Opens TV Station in the Balkans
🎦 07:30-07:49⏩
Russia has opened a TV station in the Balkans, which Jonathan finds concerning. He notes that while the EU has been strong on banning RT and blocking VPNs in occupied Ukraine, this move by Russia could spread its propaganda in the region.
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Telegram Blocks Russian Propaganda Channels in Europe
🎦 07:50-08:25⏩
Telegram has started blocking Russian propaganda channels in Europe, including RIA Novosti, NTV, Rossiya, RT, and Izvestia. This is good news for Ukrainians, as it will hinder Russia's ability to disseminate its propaganda.
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Slovakia Threatens to Cut Off Backup Power to Ukraine
🎦 08:26-09:43⏩
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has threatened to cut off backup power supplies to Ukraine if Kyiv stops transporting Russian gas to Central Europe. This is in response to Zelensky's decision to stop the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe, a move aimed at preventing Russia from profiting from gas pipelines that transit Ukraine. Poland has stepped in to say that if Slovakia refuses to supply electricity, Poland and other European countries will provide the necessary volume. Jonathan notes that Zelensky has accused Fico of trying to open a second energy front against Ukraine and that Fico's short-sighted politics will harm Slovakia and its people.
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Gas Supply to Transnistria
🎦 09:44-10:47⏩
Gazprom has announced it will leave Transnistria without gas from January 1st, causing panic among Moldovans and Transnistrians. The government of Moldova does not recognise any alleged debt to Gazprom, and Prime Minister Dorian Recean claims that Gazprom's decision confirms the Kremlin's intent to leave the residents of unrecognised Transnistria without light and heat in the middle of winter. Russia is using energy as a political weapon, and the Moldovan government will explore legal options to protect national interests and seek compensation for the economic damage caused by the Kremlin's decisions.
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Impact on the Baltic Sea
🎦 10:48-12:06⏩
Jane Keyes references Robin Brooks' graphs, highlighting that blocking the Baltic Sea could significantly impact Putin's global terror binge. The Baltic Sea is the biggest exit point for seaborne oil from Russia, and it is where Putin's shadow fleet operates the most. The EU could make Putin regret messing with Western undersea cables by shutting down his shadow fleet in the Baltic. This would be a massive blow to Russia's ability to transport hydrocarbons, potentially costing them a lot more money.
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Russian Cyber Attacks on Italy
🎦 12:07-13:26⏩
Russian hackers targeted around 10 official websites in Italy, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Milan's two airports. The hacker group "NoName 057(16)" claimed responsibility, stating it was a cyber response to Italy's "Russophobes." Jonathan believes these attacks are counterproductive for Russia, as they provide an excuse for nations to support Ukraine more and reinforce the perception of Russia as the "bad guys." He argues that if Russia were trying to gain support, attacking countries like Italy would be a PR nightmare.
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Fuel Prices
🎦 13:27-13:44⏩
In 2024, fuel prices at the pumps in the UK have fallen by about 5p a litre (3.7%), and in the USA, prices have dropped by 16 cents per gallon (about 8%). Meanwhile, in Russia, prices are up 11% due to Ukrainian drone hits, and refinery activity is down 12%. This is seen as good news for Ukraine, inflicting some economic pain on Russia.
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Ursa Major Incident
🎦 13:45-14:45⏩
Russians were outraged that a Norwegian ship did not rescue Russian sailors from the recently sunk Ursa Major near Gibraltar. However, it turned out that the entire crew of the Norwegian ship were actually from Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave. The owner of the ship is from Norway, but the head office and the entire crew are from Kaliningrad. Therefore, it was a Russian captain who did not save his own Russian sailors.
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Annalena Baerbock on Undersea Cables
🎦 14:46-16:03⏩
After the damage to the underwater power cable near the coast of Finland, Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has been sounding the alarm about the so-called Russian shadow fleet and calling for further sanctions from the EU. She highlighted that ships are damaging important underwater cables in the Baltic Sea almost every month, and it's hard to believe these incidents are simply a coincidence. Jonathan expresses hope that there will be serious repercussions for Russia's continued sabotage attacks. He also praises Baerbock for her strong stance and suggests she should run for Chancellor, noting the maturity and nuanced approach of the German Green Party compared to those in the US and UK.
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Russia and the Taliban
🎦 16:04-16:27⏩
Putin has signed a law allowing the removal of organisations from the list of terrorist groups, enabling Russian authorities to revoke the terrorist status of the Taliban. This move is seen as normalising extreme governments and another sign that Russia is creating an "axis of evil" with North Korea, Iran, China, and the Taliban.
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New Railway Bypassing Russia
🎦 16:28-17:24⏩
A new railway linking China to Central Asian countries, bypassing Russia, has begun construction in Kyrgyzstan. This is seen as a consequence of Russia's pariah status, with countries choosing not to involve Russia in projects where they normally would. The new route is part of China's economic expansion efforts, aiming to expand Chinese commercial influence in Central Asia and Europe while avoiding Russian territory.
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Azerbaijani Airliner Shot Down
🎦 17:25-18:23⏩
Concerning the Azerbaijani airliner that was shot down by Russian air defence and fell in Kazakhstan, Putin has "apologized" for the "tragic incident." He called Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to express condolences to the families of the victims. However, the Kremlin authorities have still not recognised that it was Russian air defences that shot down the plane. Jonathan suggests this is as good an apology as one can expect from Putin. Volodymyr Zelensky noted that the plane had holes and dents very similar to an air defence missile strike.
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Azerbaijan's Demands from Russia
🎦 18:24-19:11⏩
Azerbaijani President Aliyev has officially accused Russia of shooting down the flight and issued three demands: an official apology, Russian admission of guilt, and criminal charges for those responsible, along with compensation. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will work together with international investigators, including those from Brazil's Embraer, the airline manufacturer. This incident could be an excuse for Azerbaijan to move away from Russia's sphere of influence.
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Changes in Azerbaijan's Rules for Russian Citizens
🎦 19:12-19:59⏩
Azerbaijan will change the rules for the temporary stay of Russian citizens on its territory in the coming days, following Russia's announcement of stricter rules for the stay of foreigners in Russia. This may be related to the recent terrorist attacks in Russia by Tajik nationals, which have led to a tightening of migration laws. However, Russia faces a dilemma as it needs immigrants to fill labour shortages and military roles.
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Turkmenistan Airlines Suspends Flights to Russia
🎦 20:00-20:29⏩
Turkmenistan Airlines, the country's flag carrier, is suspending flights to Russia effective from Monday. This comes just days after the Russian shootdown of an airline flight over Grozny. Russia is losing out on a number of airline routes, with Turkmenistan Airlines being the fourth such airline.
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Elon Musk and the AFD
20:30-22:19⏩
Return to top⤴️Elon Musk has doubled down on his attempts to rip apart German society by expressing support for the far-right German political party Alternative für Deutschland (AFD). He penned an op-ed in the Welt newspaper, stating that the portrayal of the AFD as right-wing extremists is false, citing the fact that Alice Weidel, the party's leader, has a same-sex partner from Sri Lanka. Jonathan criticises this as a fallacy of hasty generalisation and points out the problematic nature of Musk's logic. Musk argues that the AFD's approach to reducing government overregulation, cutting taxes, and deregulating the market reflects the principles that have made Tesla and SpaceX successful. However, this support for the AFD is concerning due to the party's pro-Russian stance and its potential to sow division within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. Critics, including George Conway and Yoni Eskola, have condemned Musk's support for the AFD, highlighting the party's pro-China and pro-Russia stance and controversies involving Russian and Chinese influence within the party. Jens Spahn further criticises Musk's position, noting that the AFD opposes many policies that benefit Musk's own investments in Germany, such as the Tesla factory in Grünheide, which relies on immigrant workers.
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Elon Musk and Russian Propaganda
🎦 22:20-22:55⏩
Jay in Kyiv points out that Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, now acts as "Putin's bitch," promoting anything that pushes Russian propaganda into Western minds. Musk has reposted an RT (Russia Today) article, which Twitter cannot show in the UK and EU due to regulations, but is presumably visible in the US. Jonathan criticises Musk for spreading RT news pieces and acting as a puppet for Putin.
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Keith Kellogg on US-Russia Relations
🎦 22:56-23:46⏩
Keith Kellogg, the envoy to Russia and Ukraine, has stated that Russia signals a willingness to improve ties, but the onus is on Trump. This is seen as bad news, as Kellogg's apparent optimism about improving ties with Russia could work to the detriment of Ukraine. Chris O'Whipple suggests that if Trump 2.0 focuses on "improving ties" with Russia rather than helping Ukraine, it will be a negative development.
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Senator Mike Lee on Ukraine
🎦 23:47-24:38⏩
Senator Mike Lee, a Republican from Utah, shared a post on Twitter depicting the Ukrainian flag with the universal symbol for money laundering, stating, "Please, no more money for Ukraine. There's only so much they can launder." Jonathan expresses his strong disapproval of Lee's post, stating he would be hard-pressed not to punch him if they were in the same room. The post is criticised for implying that aid to Ukraine is being laundered, which Jonathan finds despicable.
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Myrna Ashoya's Support for Ukraine
🎦 24:39-25:49⏩
Myrna Ashoya, an Iraqi woman who emigrated to the US 10 years ago, has learned Ukrainian, cooks Ukrainian dishes, and plays Ukrainian music on the drums. She fell in love with Ukrainian culture while helping refugees from Ukraine. Jonathan shares this as a positive story, highlighting Myrna's active support for Ukraine and those affected by the war.
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US Peace Plans for Putin
🎦 25:50-26:37⏩
Samuel Charap in Foreign Affairs has put forward another American peace plan for Putin, which is taken to pieces by Philip O'Brien in his Substack piece. Jonathan warns that there are many peace plans being proposed, and Trump is reportedly nearing the completion of his own plan. He criticises Trump for initially claiming he could sort out the situation in one day and then backtracking, arguing that such rhetoric and unfulfilled promises should not be normalised.
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Trump, TikTok, and Corruption
🎦 26:38-28:25⏩
Donald Trump has issued a brief to the Supreme Court requesting they block a law that would require the social media app TikTok to be sold to an American company or shut down by January 19th. This move is seen as corrupt, as Jeffrey Yass, who owns 15% of TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, has donated $96.98 million to Trump and other Republicans this year. Jonathan highlights this as an example of quid pro quo and criticises lobbying as legalised corruption. He contrasts this with politicians like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who refuse corporate money and rely on small donations from constituents. The contradiction between Trump's stance on China as a threat and his support for TikTok due to financial contributions is also highlighted.
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Democratic Backsliding in the US
🎦 28:26-28:57⏩
Jonathan expresses concern about democratic backsliding in the US, citing instances where those who don't vote a particular way within parties are threatened. GOP Representative Pete Sessions on Newsmax called for the prosecution of anti-Trump members of Congress, which Jonathan sees as a form of bullying autocracy.
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Trump on Greenland
🎦 28:58-29:55⏩
Trump's national security advisor, Robert O'Brien, stated that Greenland is critical to the defence of the USA and needs anti-aircraft, counter-drone, and anti-ship missile systems, as well as a frigate on full-time patrol and a squadron of fighters. He suggested that if Denmark can't commit to defending the island, the US will have to step in. Jonathan draws a parallel between this stance and Russia's actions in Ukraine, questioning how Trump's proposed actions in Greenland are different from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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Future of Greenland
🎦 29:56-30:24⏩
An ex-Danish diplomat suggested that something is probably going to happen with Greenland over the next 10 to 15 years, possibly independence, which is why the US is hedging for all futures. This could be Trump gearing up for some eventuality with Greenland.
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Trump on Canada
🎦 30:25-30:58⏩
Trump has called Justin Trudeau "Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada" and referred to Canada as the 51st state. Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary claims that half of Canada supports the idea of merging the US and Canadian economies. Jonathan expresses concern about these developments and asks for Canadian viewers' opinions on the matter.
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Wrap up
🎦 30:59-31:48⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by summarising the main points discussed, emphasising the importance of democracy and the need to address democratic backsliding and double standards. He thanks the audience for their support and signs off.
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"If Denmark can't commit to defending the island, the US will have to step in, as POTUS 47 said. How is this different from Russia? Russia goes into Ukraine, invades Ukraine, says, well, we've got our own strategic objectives for Ukraine, and if Ukraine aren't going to do that, if Ukraine aren't going to let our leaders be in charge of Ukraine, then we're going to have to step into Ukraine, and we're going to have to step in, literally step into Ukraine. And now we've got Trump and his national security advisors saying, well, if Denmark can't do more with Greenland, then we're going to have to step into Greenland."
