Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Strategy vs Tactics, Challenger 2, Makiivka, & NATO
Table of Contents 📖
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"You don't choose who you fall in love with."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses the differences between strategy, operations and tactics in warfare. He notes that he has sometimes blurred these terms in his previous videos. The strategic level focuses on defining and supporting national policy, the operational level is concerned with employing military forces to attain strategic goals, and the tactical level deals with the details of prosecuting engagements.
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Britain considering supplying Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine
- Britain is considering supplying Ukraine with Challenger 2 tanks, likely in response to recent announcements by France, Germany and the US to provide various armoured fighting vehicles
- There is some "healthy international brinkmanship" with countries not wanting to appear less supportive than others
- Britain's army is efficient but underfunded which may limit how much it can provide
- Pressure is mounting, with former military leaders like Sir Richard Dannatt calling on the government to also provide Warrior infantry fighting vehicles
Bradley Fighting Vehicles
- The US is providing 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine initially, with indications that more will follow based on the number of Ukrainian troops being trained
- Bradleys provide cross-country mobility, firepower, communication, surveillance and protection. They have a crew of 3 and carry 6-7 troops.
- Key armaments include a 25mm cannon, TOW anti-tank missiles, and a 7.62 coaxial machine gun
- Bradleys performed very well in the Gulf War against Soviet-era armour. Their thermal sights, mobility and firepower make them dangerous to Russian tanks.
Makiivka strike update
- The Russian troops hit in Makiivka were watching Putin's New Year's Eve speech on TV when the HIMARS struck
- Ukrainian intelligence is tracking the movement of mobilised Russian troops as they head towards Ukraine, conducting strikes on their staging areas 50-100km from the frontline
- This is decimating newly-formed Russian units before they even reach the front
- Similar incidents have been reported in multiple locations, with dozens or hundreds of casualties each time
Russia, China and South Africa to hold joint naval exercises
Jonathan questions why South Africa would align itself with Russia and China in holding joint naval exercises near Durban. He speculates there may be economic factors at play in terms of deals around natural resources. Countries are picking sides based on how they see the future geopolitical landscape.
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Speculation on US commitment to NATO
- Jonathan discusses the possibility, however unlikely, that a future Republican president could seek to disengage the US from NATO as Trump had suggested
- If this happened, European powers would need to step up to defend themselves, possibly through an EU army
- However, the US is likely to still need Europe as an ally to counter China so a complete decoupling is improbable
Macron interviewed by journalists with autism
- French President Emmanuel Macron was interviewed by a panel of journalists on the autism spectrum
- The interview showed a different, more human and likeable side to Macron who is often perceived as an arrogant technocrat
- A short clip was played where the interviewers ask Macron if it was appropriate for him to marry his former teacher. Macron responds in a self-deprecating way that you don't choose who you fall in love with and she wasn't really his teacher as she only taught him theatre.
Situation in Soledar
- The Ukrainian armed forces have received reinforcements near Soledar
- The Russians have been probing Ukrainian defences in this area for weaknesses and have now concentrated forces to put systematic pressure on them
- Ukraine is responding by reinforcing the area to prevent the Russians from gaining momentum
- In Luhansk, Ukraine destroyed a Russian pontoon crossing with 5 tanks on it, one of several incidents contributing to high daily equipment losses for Russia
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching. He will have a frontline update tomorrow. On Wednesday, he will be interviewing Tim White who has recently returned from Ukraine again. Due to technical issues, the interview will be conducted on his other channel "A Tippling Philosopher" rather than ATP Geopolitics.
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