US Troops Die in Drone Strike: What Now? It's Complicated.
Table of Contents 📖
"It's better to be canny than look strong, perhaps."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan introduces the topic of the video which is about the death of three US troops in a drone strike in Jordan. He sets the scene by explaining that this is a complex and sensitive geopolitical situation.
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Jordan Drone Strike: What happened, who was involved?
🎦 00:26-02:49⏩
Three US troops were killed in a drone attack on a US base (Tower 22) in Jordan near the Syrian border. The US has blamed the attack on Iranian-backed militant groups operating inside Iraq. Dozens more were injured and some required medical evacuation. Jonathan shows the location of the attack using a map. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group made up of several Iranian-affiliated militias has claimed responsibility for the attack. US President Biden has said the US will hold those responsible to account but was vague about the specifics and the timing. Iran has denied any involvement.
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The Challenges of Fourth Generation Warfare: US Goals and Options
🎦 02:49-04:10⏩
Jonathan explains that The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General CQ Brown has said that America's aim is to deter further conflict and escalation. Jonathan then explains that this situation is an example of what is known as "Fourth Generation Warfare" - fighting an enemy that isn't a nation state in the traditional sense and who operate across borders rather than within the confines of a particular country.
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US Dilemma: Retaliation vs. Escalation
🎦 04:10-07:54⏩
Jonathan explains that whilst some will be calling for a strong US response and retribution, there will be others who will be urging caution in case a full-scale war breaks out. The US will want to be seen to be strong, especially with an election coming up, but they also won't want to risk escalating the situation further. There is also the question of who to target. Jonathan draws parallels with the downing of a US MQ-9 Reaper drone by Russian pilots 10 months previously; on that occasion, the US chose not to retaliate in kind as this would have been viewed as an act of war, but some saw this as a sign of weakness. He concludes that the US is in a difficult position as they risk upsetting both domestic and international audiences whatever action, if any, they decide to take. He reminds viewers that sometimes the right thing to do and the cleverest thing to do may not always be the same thing.
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Need for Strategic Strikes and Deterrence
🎦 07:54-08:59⏩
Jonathan argues that, ideally, the US would opt for strategic strikes against those responsible but this depends on the quality of intelligence available. He points out that the US has a track record of carrying out precision strikes in contrast to the Russians who opt for volume over precision. What the US won't want is to get other countries such as Iran and Syria formally involved.
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Avoiding State-on-State Conflict: The Importance of a Measured Response
🎦 08:59-11:09⏩
Jonathan reiterates that this is a precarious situation and that, whilst the US needs to be seen to be strong, it needs to avoid a state-on-state conflict. The preferred option may be to focus on blaming dissidents and avoiding formally accusing Iran, which could lead to pressure to retaliate. He compares the situation with the downing of the US drone by Russia, suggesting that sometimes it is better to appear weak to avoid a much larger conflict. Jonathan acknowledges that the best course of action could be a show of strength, but that this is not always straightforward.
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Navigating Public Opinion in a Complex Geopolitical Landscape
🎦 11:09-12:15⏩
Jonathan emphasises that the US government will have to consider a multitude of factors and that gut reactions and simplistic solutions are not helpful. He highlights the fact that it is impossible to please everyone, whether it be domestic audiences or international players, and any action taken will inevitably disappoint some.
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Wrap up
🎦 12:15-12:15⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by acknowledging that he has no easy answers, reflecting that the situation is incredibly complicated. He encourages viewers to share their opinions whilst acknowledging the lack of readily available information and the dangers of uninformed opinions.
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