Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231121a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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"At Avdiivka, 32,000 inhabitants before the war, the Russians suffered their heaviest post-World War II losses in a single front sector. More than 100 tanks and 250 armored vehicles were lost by the Russians."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war for November 21, 2023. He notes it has been a quiet 24 hours in terms of activity, likely due to weather. Russian losses are lower than previous days but still significant at 610+ personnel. Equipment losses are also lower.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian vs Ukrainian Equipment Losses
According to Andrew Perpetua, a mapper tracking equipment losses, the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is about 3:1, sometimes approaching parity. Jonathan notes Ukraine may need an even higher ratio to win by attrition, given Russia's larger inventory. Ukrainian losses include MaxxPros, M113s - older donated vehicles. Russia lost two radars in Kursk region within Russia, a concern for their capabilities. Most Russian losses were damaged rather than destroyed equipment.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Assets
- Ukrainian units hit two expensive Russian radar stations in Kursk region, Russia on Nov 18: a 55Zh-6 Nebo mobile unit-band radar complex and a Gamma-S1E mobile 3D radar.
- A Ukrainian HIMARS missile destroyed a Russian R149 AKSh-1 command vehicle in the Avdiivka sector, a significant loss of command and control capability. HIMARS are high-value munitions used on high-value targets.
- A direct hit on a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS system shelling Ukrainian positions in Kherson region. Crew abandoned the damaged vehicle.
- Russia targeted a probable Ukrainian ammunition depot east of Karlivka village, west of Avdiivka.
Possible Russian Friendly Fire Incidents
Two videos purport to show possible Russian friendly fire incidents:
- A Russian Ka-52M helicopter striking a Russian abandoned/moving modified MT-LB with an ATGM near Novomykhailivka, southwest of Donetsk.
- A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter hitting a stationary Russian MT-LB armored vehicle with an ATGM near Novomokrivka.
Jonathan notes crews abandoning vehicles hit by drones has been seen in other recent videos. Abandoned vehicles may be purposely destroyed to prevent capture, but one vehicle shown was still moving when hit. More context is needed to verify if these are indeed friendly fire incidents.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
Overnight, Russia launched 10 Shahed drones at Ukraine, of which 9 were shot down (90% interception rate). Additionally, a single Iskander-K missile was downed. Several S-300 missiles, difficult to intercept, were also fired at Ukraine with damage still being determined. Jonathan questions the strategic value of these small drone attack waves, suggesting they may be simply hunting air defenses rather than an effective use of the drones. Russia claims 2 Ukrainian drones were downed overnight - one in Kursk region (possibly relating to the radar strikes) and one over Oryol region on Nov 21.
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Other News
- Zelensky is reportedly concerned about the "Churchill phenomenon" of a successful wartime leader being defeated in peacetime elections. His ratings remain high but are gradually falling. He may consider stepping down after the war to preserve his reputation.
- In Russia, a stolen passenger plane that made an emergency landing in a Siberian field on Sept 12 is still there, with a fence built around it, showing an inability or lack of will to remove it.
- The UK Ministry of Defence states at least 11,000 Ukrainian children are in 43 Russian "re-education camps", calling it a horrible war crime threatening the children's lives and freedom.
Front Line Summary from Radu Hossu
Romanian analyst Radu Hossu, currently in Kherson, provides a front line summary: Orikhiv-Tokmak Axis:
- Ukraine's counteroffensive has slowed after initial breakthroughs
- Densely mined terrain, lack of air support, and limited Western equipment are factors
- Not a lost cause, as Russia suffers heavy losses from active defense
Bakhmut:
- Heavy fighting continues but Ukrainian advances are not significant
- Encircling Bakhmut has likely failed this year
- Potential for Ukrainian breakthroughs south of Bakhmut next year with improved coordination and Western equipment
Kherson:
- Ukraine has stabilized bridgeheads across the Dnipro River
- Russians withdrawing positions, telling some citizens to evacuate
- Ukrainian landing of armor and marines is a major gain
Kupyansk:
- Russians have made no notable advances despite heavy losses
- Along with Avdiivka, will be a key Russian objective this winter
- Success unlikely without much greater mobilization
Avdiivka:
- Russians have made small gains but also faced Ukrainian counterattacks
- One of the heaviest Russian loss points of the war
- Over 100 tanks, 250 armored vehicles lost; 5000+ killed, 10,000+ wounded
Wrap up
Jonathan asks viewers to share their thoughts on the current front line situation. Please like, subscribe, and share the video. Take care and speak to you soon!
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