Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"I absolutely advocate for the striking of any military target.... honestly why why restrict Ukraine from from prevailing in this war when you clearly want them to prevail it's just crazy"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Ukraine War News Update for 22 June 2024 and points out that this is the first part of the update.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Reports Russian Losses
🎦 00:09-01:09⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily reported losses from the Ukrainian General Staff. He notes that personnel losses, at 1,110 are similar to figures from the past month and that losses of armoured vehicles and tanks (8 and 11 respectively) are around average. Artillery system losses, however, at 28 are above average. Losses of vehicles and fuel tanks are lower than usual, as are losses of special equipment. Overall, Jonathan notes, this represents a lower level of Russian losses but with personnel losses still high. He speculates that the lower losses may indicate a change in the nature of fighting on the front lines and that the Russians may be concentrating on making gains in the east whilst attention is focused on events around Kharkiv.
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Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed loss figures
🎦 01:09-06:13⏩
Jonathan then examines the visually confirmed losses compiled by defence analyst Andrew Perpetua noting that the figures are broadly similar on both sides. He highlights the loss of a significant number of Starlink terminals to Ukrainian forces and suggests that these may have been specifically targeted by the Russians to damage Ukrainian communications and ability to operate drones. Jonathan notes the loss of several items of Western equipment to Ukrainian forces, including Humvees, an M113, a Max Pro armoured vehicle and two Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Turning to Russian losses, Jonathan highlights the destruction of a 2S7 Pion self-propelled gun, a very large piece of artillery. He also notes the destruction of a Russian T-90M tank, Russia's most modern tank.
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Russian shelling of civilian areas
🎦 06:13-07:08⏩
Jonathan highlights footage shared by Andrew Perpetua that shows a Russian 240mm mortar, a "Tulip", firing on civilian areas. He describes these weapons as "huge rounds slamming into Ukrainian, unfortunately, civilian territory and civilian infrastructure". He goes on to comment that this is "par for the course" for Russian forces in this conflict.
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Russian air defence systems destroyed
🎦 07:08-08:32⏩
Jonathan goes on to highlight the destruction of a number of Russian air defence systems. The first piece of footage shows a Russian OSA air defence system being destroyed by an FPV drone, apparently after the OSA had attempted to engage a separate reconnaissance drone. Jonathan then discusses footage that purports to show a Russian Pantsir S1 air defence system being destroyed by a HIMARS missile in the Belgorod region of Russia, some 26 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. This footage, he notes has been confirmed by a number of sources, including pro-Russian ones, although the latter claim that the crew all survived.
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Russian overnight missile and drone attacks
🎦 08:32-12:04⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss overnight missile and drone attacks on Ukraine. He notes that Ukrainian air defence forces report the destruction of 12 Russian missiles and 13 Shahed drones. The missiles destroyed include 7 out of 10 KH-101/KH-555 cruise missiles, 1 out of 2 K-type cruise missiles and 4 out of 4 Kalibr cruise missiles. However, Jonathan notes that despite the high interception rate this still means that four missiles hit their targets, any one of which could have caused significant damage. Anton Gerashchenko, advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, describes the attacks as targeting energy infrastructure, with facilities belonging to electricity transmission system operators in the south and west of the country being hit. He also notes that two power workers were injured in the attacks, as well as an overhead power line in eastern Ukraine being damaged. Jonathan highlights footage of what appears to be a fire at an energy facility in Lviv, which he describes as potentially catastrophic for Ukrainian energy infrastructure, a particular area of vulnerability at present. Euromaiden Press, Jonathan goes on to note, confirms that two power workers were injured in the attack on Zaporizhzhia and that an educational facility in Ivano-Frankivsk was also hit.
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Explosion and fire at the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Rostov-on-Don
🎦 12:04-13:41⏩
Jonathan then discusses an explosion and fire that occurred the previous day at the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. He notes that footage from the scene showed a large fire and a great deal of smoke and speculates about the possibility that the target may have contained more than was publicly acknowledged. Anton Gerashchenko, Jonathan notes, reported that Russian state media were describing the incident as a fire at a supply warehouse.
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Missile strike on Odessa
🎦 13:41-14:08⏩
Jonathan then refers to a missile strike on the southern Ukrainian city of Odessa that also occurred the previous day, in which a recreation centre was reportedly damaged. He notes that no casualties were reported in the attack.
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Explosions in Donetsk
🎦 14:08-14:55⏩
Jonathan highlights footage appearing to show the aftermath of explosions in the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk, noting that around 20 explosions were reported in the city.
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Women to be trained as public transport drivers in Ukraine
🎦 14:55-16:10⏩
Jonathan discusses the announcement by the Ukrainian government that women will be trained at a national level to drive trucks and buses. This move, he notes, is a consequence of labour shortages brought on by the war and the mobilisation of men of fighting age. Jonathan points out that the move echoes similar schemes in other countries during previous conflicts, such as the "land girls" who worked in agriculture in Britain during World War Two. He expresses some surprise that it has taken so long for this step to be taken, noting that as far back as February of this year shortages of public transport drivers in some parts of Ukraine were as high as 30% as a result of mobilisation.
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Russia continues to add barriers around the Crimean Bridge
🎦 16:10-16:26⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia is continuing to add barriers around the Kerch Strait Bridge in an attempt to protect it from Ukrainian naval drone attacks. He notes that these appear to be floating barriers designed to disrupt attacks such as those carried out using Magura V5 drones.
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Ukrainian men attempt to flee the country
🎦 16:26-17:45⏩
Jonathan highlights attempts by Ukrainian men to flee the country in order to avoid mobilisation. He reports that Ukrainian border guards detained 47 men attempting to cross the border into Moldova, along with 7 individuals who are alleged to have been organising the border crossings. Jonathan acknowledges that attempts to avoid mobilisation are a prickly subject, with those attempting to flee often being labelled as cowards. He suggests that those doing so will have their own reasons for doing so and that many are likely to be motivated by a desire to protect their families. This, he points out, is a well-known problem that was widely predicted and one that also affected Russia in the wake of the announcement of mobilisation there.
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US restricts Ukrainian strikes against Russian territory
🎦 17:45-21:35⏩
Jonathan discusses a Washington Post article which claims that the US has placed restrictions on Ukrainian strikes against targets within Russian territory. Citing comments from George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War, Jonathan reports that the restrictions appear to prohibit Ukraine from striking Russian military targets that are not actively engaged in attacks on Ukraine. He goes on to note that Ukrainian officials claim that the restrictions prevent them from striking targets within 100 kilometres of the border, whilst the Pentagon has stated that the restrictions only apply to attacks on Russian territory using US-supplied weapons. Jonathan expresses his disagreement with this policy, arguing that Ukrainian forces should be permitted to strike Russian military targets that represent a potential threat, including airbases from which Russian aircraft launch attacks on Ukraine. He describes the US policy as "ridiculous" and suggests that it makes little strategic sense. Jonathan points out that it is clearly the aim of the US to see Ukraine prevail in the conflict and that preventing them from striking military targets within Russia is counterproductive to this aim. He describes the US approach as "crazy" and questions the logic of supplying Ukraine with advanced weapons such as ATACMS missiles whilst simultaneously preventing them from being used against certain targets. Jonathan concludes by stating that if Ukrainian forces are able to strike targets such as Russian oil refineries using weapons of their own manufacture, then they should be free to do so, but that when it comes to the use of US-supplied weapons against Russian military targets then such targets should be considered "fair game".
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Russian company offers bounties for destruction of Western fighter jets
🎦 21:35-22:03⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian company, FOIS, has announced that it will pay bounties of 15 million Rubles to any Russian service personnel who destroy a Western F-15 or F-16 fighter jet. He notes that this follows a pattern of behaviour, with similar bounties having been offered previously in respect of Western tanks and other armoured vehicles.
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Wrap up
🎦 22:03-22:10⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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