Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Stugna, Missiles & Rockets, the UN, Kool Kadyrov, & Arestovych
Table of Contents 📖
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"If your best mates are Iran and North Korea, then, man, you've really got to have a look in the mirror because it turns out you're a bit of a dick."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides extra context, information and analysis to give a greater understanding of the war in Ukraine in this update video.
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US Congress Wants to Boot Russia from UN Security Council
- Two US lawmakers have introduced a resolution calling on President Biden to remove Russia from the UN Security Council, arguing Russia has violated the UN Charter with its war on Ukraine
- The UN Charter has no provisions to remove a permanent Security Council member and would require Russia to vote itself off, which won't happen
- An alternative idea is for Ukraine to claim Russia's seat, arguing as an initial signatory of the Soviet Union treaty alongside Russia, it is the only successor state not violating the UN Charter. This would only require 9 of 15 Council members to approve.
- The US is also looking at UN reforms like expanding the Council and has succeeded in removing Iran from the UN Commission on the Status of Women
Ukraine Advances Near Kreminna
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Ukrainian forces have advanced to within 1.5km of the Russian-occupied city of Kreminna in Luhansk Oblast. Jonathan notes this puts them within "spitting distance" of the city. However, he believes Ukraine is unlikely to directly assault the urban area and will look to encircle it to avoid costly street fighting.
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Germany Boosts Ammo Production
German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has announced a new facility to produce medium-caliber ammunition (20-35mm) that will be operational by January 2023. They could start delivering ammunition for Gepard anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine by July 2023. Jonathan notes this is good news but still a long way off.
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Ukraine Running Low on Soviet Missiles
Ukraine is facing a growing shortage of Soviet-era anti-aircraft missiles for its S-300 and Buk air defense systems. This is why Ukraine is increasingly being provided Western air defense systems by NATO countries. Jonathan speculates Ukraine could soon have many operational launchers but no ammunition left for them, making them reliant on the West.
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UK Announces New Military Aid
The UK has announced a new £50 million military aid package for Ukraine, including:
- 125 anti-aircraft guns
- Dozens of radars and anti-drone electronic warfare capability
Jonathan notes the anti-aircraft guns are key and while the UK doesn't have many itself, it will source them from other countries to provide to Ukraine.
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Kadyrov's Cringe Combat Video
Chechen warlord and Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov released a cringeworthy propaganda video of himself firing weapons and leading his "TikTok battalion" troops shooting in the air. Jonathan mocks the video, noting Kadyrov's lack of self-awareness and small stature. He says the video only works as a self-deprecating parody and proves Kadyrov is an "idiot".
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How the Stugna Beats Russian Tanks
The Ukrainian-made Stugna anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) has been highly effective against Russian tanks, including the advanced T-90. Jonathan explains how it defeats tanks' active protection systems:
- The Stugna is operated by a 2-man crew, with the missile launcher and operator's control panel connected by a 50m cable
- The missile is fired above the target and guided by the operator until diving down on the tank at the last moment
- A laser range finder determines the exact distance to the tank, allowing the operator to keep the missile at a constant height until striking
- Crucially, the missile itself does not emit any laser beam, preventing the tank from detecting it and activating countermeasures in time
Over 100 videos have been released of the Stugna destroying Russian vehicles, far more than other ATGMs like the Javelin. Jonathan attributes this to the ability to easily film the operator's screen during the engagement.
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Missiles vs Rockets Explained
Jonathan breaks down the differences between missiles and rockets:
- A missile is a guided weapon that delivers an explosive warhead with great accuracy at high speed using aerodynamic controls and onboard guidance systems
- An unguided military projectile, like those fired from MLRS, is referred to as a rocket
- Cruise missiles are jet-engine powered and fly at subsonic speeds at low altitudes to their targets
- Ballistic missiles are rocket-powered during their initial boost phase before following an arcing trajectory to the target, reaching extremely high speeds
- Missiles are steered by fins and can adjust trajectory using movable vanes, engine thrust vectoring, or commands from the launcher
- Guidance is provided by onboard systems like infrared seekers (heat-seeking), radar (anti-radiation), TV cameras (optical) or inertial navigation systems (ballistic)
Jonathan notes the extreme precision of modern ballistic missiles, with the US Peacekeeper ICBM able to land 50% of its warheads within a 120m radius of the target after flying over 9600km.
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NATO's Shifting Risk Calculus
Quoting an insightful comment from "The Truth", Jonathan argues NATO is becoming bolder in arming Ukraine as the risk vs reward calculation has shifted:
- The poor performance of the Russian military has diminished the threat they pose to Europe
- Russia's dwindling precision missile stocks from their campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure has denied them a key conventional escalation option below the nuclear threshold
- This has effectively removed a "rung in the escalation ladder", leaving Russia with a "use it or lose it" choice regarding nuclear weapons over issues like Ukraine receiving tanks or long-range missiles
- As a result, NATO is more willing to provide Ukraine advanced weapons as the risk of escalation is reduced while the reward of decisively weakening Russia is increased
Jonathan agrees with this assessment, comparing it to his teaching advice of "don't shout in September" - Russia has played its biggest threat too early and now has little left to deter the West.
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Putin Cancels Speeches as Losses Mount
Ukrainian presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych reports that Putin has cancelled his planned public addresses and press conferences in December, including his annual New Year speech. Arestovych attributes this to:
- Lack of any victories or good news to report, with all indicators trending downwards
- Seeking to buy time for a diplomatic or military achievement to tout, like capturing Bakhmut by February 24 (the invasion anniversary)
- Speculation about Putin's deteriorating health, with Arestovych suggesting he may die by April, ending the war early
Jonathan notes Putin's penchant for symbolic dates and agrees he has nothing to celebrate compared to the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan highlights Hungary's ongoing obstruction of EU aid for Ukraine and the Pentagon's assurances that US weapons provided to Ukraine are not being misused or at risk of capture. He speculates that any Patriot air defense batteries sent to Ukraine would be deployed around major cities like Kyiv and are unlikely to be lost. If Russia did threaten them, the US would likely take action to prevent their capture. Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support and encourages them to visit the UA Supporter website to purchase merchandise to back Ukraine, which also benefits his channel. He expresses his gratitude for super chats, channel memberships and thoughtful comments.
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