Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Let's get this right. I have the freedom to criticise the government. But if I do, I'll die? Not really free, is it?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for the first Ukraine War News Update on 22nd January 2024.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses for 21/01/2024
🎦 00:10-05:05⏩
Jonathan starts with the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day (21/01/2024).
- Jonathan highlights the significance of the reported losses of 830 personnel, 11 tanks, 23 armoured personnel vehicles and 21 artillery systems.
- He questions the types of anti-aircraft systems that were destroyed and notes the higher than average losses of vehicles and fuel tanks (29), indicating the success of the Ukrainians in disrupting Russian logistics.
- He goes on to say that the Ukrainian losses are unknown but acknowledges that there will be losses on both sides and that the Ukrainians are under considerable pressure in certain areas of the front line, particularly around Krinky on the left bank of the Dnipro River and around Avdiivka where the Ukrainians are reportedly struggling with a lack of artillery ammunition.
- Jonathan discusses the latest verified visual evidence of Russian equipment losses from Andrew Perpetua. He mentions that Perpetua had identified 28 Russian vehicle losses in one video alone (a new record).
- Looking at the verified Ukrainian losses, Jonathan highlights the loss of a 2S7 Pion howitzer, a T-72 and two T-64 tanks, a couple of armoured personnel carriers and a couple of trucks. He notes that although the numbers of Russian and Ukrainian vehicles lost that day were broadly similar, the value of equipment lost by the Russians (specifically the air defence systems) more than compensated for Ukrainian losses.
- Jonathan encourages viewers to refer to the original source material from Andrew Perpetua for evidence of the figures presented.
Ammunition explosion near Bilohirka
🎦 05:05-05:59⏩
Jonathan reports an ammunition cache explosion in Bilohirka, south of the Serebiansky Forest and Kramina, supposedly taken out by a Ukrainian D-PIC cluster munition.
Return to top⤴️
Russian FPV loitering munition stopped by anti-drone net
🎦 05:59-07:33⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Russian FPV loitering munition that has been stopped by an anti-drone net over a Ukrainian trench. He highlights:
- The size of the quadcopter drone and the size of the explosive it was carrying.
- That the Russians appear to be increasingly using drones to attack dugouts and trenches, in a way that one might normally expect artillery to be used. Jonathan questions whether this is due to a shortage of artillery ammunition or if it represents a shift in tactics given the lack of Ukrainian vehicles/equipment in those areas.
- That whilst the drone was successfully stopped by the net, he questions how the Ukrainians safely remove it.
Jonathan then shows footage of a Russian infantry fighting vehicle exploding after being hit by what appears to be a Ukrainian FPV drone. He questions whether the Ukrainians are using more powerful explosives on their drones or if it was just a lucky shot that detonated the ammunition. He also wonders if the Ukrainians are using armour-piercing munitions on their drones as the explosion was instantaneous, something more characteristic of being hit by a precision-guided munition, such as an artillery shell.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk shopping mall shelling
🎦 08:57-15:45⏩
Jonathan expresses his frustration with the way in which the mainstream media has been reporting the recent shelling of a shopping mall in Russian-occupied Donetsk.
- He is frustrated that the initial claims from the Russians (that the Ukrainians were responsible) are quick to be picked up by the mainstream media but that similar attacks on Ukrainian civilians are not given the same level of attention or are not reported at all.
- Jonathan analyses the situation, highlighting the lack of logic in the Ukrainians targeting a shopping mall in Donetsk when:
- Ukrainian forces in the nearby Avdiivka are desperately short of artillery ammunition;
- Such an attack would be a PR disaster for the Ukrainians who are trying to persuade those living in Russian-occupied territories that they are fighting for their freedom and democracy;
- There is no strategic, tactical or operational advantage to be gained.
- Jonathan highlights the fact that the Russians do have "form" when it comes to carrying out false flag operations. He then presents evidence from a variety of sources which points to this being a Russian false flag operation, including:
- A tweet from P111 who claims that the Russians used mortars to bomb the Donetsk market and then blamed the Ukrainians. P111 claims that the locals know this as the Ukrainians would not waste valuable ammunition on attacking civilians;
- Euromaidan Press is questioning whether the Russians are responsible;
- A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Volunteer Service has stated that the Russians were responsible and that they fired from their positions at the Chervonohvardiiske mines in Makiivka;
- Spartan News highlights inconsistencies in the footage which show people casually walking past the bodies of people supposedly killed in the blast and that two out of three bodies appear to be moving;
- Tim White states that the Russians are blaming Kyiv but there is no evidence to support this, and that history suggests that this is another false flag operation.
- Jonathan concludes that whilst he cannot definitively say who was responsible, he thinks it is highly unlikely that it was the Ukrainians, given the evidence presented.
Fire at goods market in Samara
🎦 15:45-16:12⏩
Jonathan reports a fire at a goods market in Samara, Russia. The fire has engulfed an area measuring 800 square metres and the flames have reached a pavilion containing pyrotechnics. No cause has been given for the fire.
Return to top⤴️
Overnight drone and missile attacks - 22/01/2024
🎦 16:12-18:19⏩
Jonathan reports on the overnight drone and missile attacks that took place:
- Russia fired 8 drones into Ukraine, all of which were shot down by air defences. Jonathan questions the logic behind firing so few, if they are going to be shot down and wonders if this is a tactic to map Ukrainian air defences or if the Russians simply do not have as many drones as they would like.
- There were explosions reported near Sevastopol in Crimea shortly after a missile danger warning was issued. Locals report at least three explosions in the centre of Sevastopol and more explosions in the Balaklava district. Russian sources claim that four Storm Shadow missiles were shot down but No Report believes that this is untrue, and that Sevastopol may have been hit.
- Jonathan reminds viewers of the recent strike on the Novotek oil facility in St Petersburg, which was hit in a drone attack and that one of the oil reservoirs was on fire. Ust-Luga, where the facility is located, is 860km from the Ukrainian border. He reminds viewers that he reported on this yesterday and shows the location on a map, pointing out its proximity to Estonia.
Impact of the attack on the Novotek oil terminal
🎦 18:19-20:25⏩
Jonathan provides more detail about the impact of the Ukrainian drone attack on the Novotek oil facility in Ust-Luga:
- It is the second biggest oil terminal in Russia and has ceased all operations.
- Tanker loading operations have been suspended.
- Almost half of all shipborne oil exports from the Baltic sea go through Ust-Luga, making it a strategically important target.
- The EU is criticised for prioritising profits from Greek shipping companies over European Security by allowing Greek ships to continue to transport Russian oil. Jonathan shows a chart which shows the proportion of Russian oil transported from Ust-Luga by Greek-owned ships.
Analysis of recent Ukrainian long-range strikes
🎦 20:25-21:05⏩
Jonathan analyses the recent Ukrainian strikes and believes that they are becoming more strategic and are taking advantage of the weakened Russian air defences. He believes that this is likely due to the fact that the Russians have had to redeploy many of their air defence systems to the front line to bolster defences. This has left cities such as Moscow and St Petersburg much more vulnerable to Ukrainian long-range strikes.
Return to top⤴️
Russian soldiers appealing to Shoigu
🎦 21:05-22:01⏩
Jonathan talks about the recent appeals by Russian soldiers for a vacation and complaining about the lack of winter uniforms and heating, shortages of gasoline and food and the growing number of dead and wounded. He questions whether these videos are part of a deliberate attempt by the Ukrainians to control the narrative, particularly given their struggles on the front line or whether the situation for Russian troops is really that bad. Jonathan provides details of two appeals:
- Soldiers from the 2nd Battalion, 6th Company, 26th Motorised Rifle Regiment, Military Unit 12267, appealing to Shoigu for a vacation, complaining that they had not had a single vacation in 7 months.
- Soldiers appealing from Krinky complaining about similar issues.
Ukrainian drone strike on aircraft repair plant in Smolensk
🎦 22:01-23:08⏩
Jonathan gets sidetracked by the appeals from the Russian soldiers but remembers that he wanted to talk about the drone strike on Smolensk. He explains that an aircraft repair plant was hit which is involved in the production and repair of weapons, aviation and military equipment and which also produces KH-59 missiles. Jonathan highlights the strategic significance of the targets being hit by Ukrainian drones. He then goes on to report:
- That the town of Mykhailivka was also hit, with heavy smoke reported, indicating an oil facility may have been targeted.
- That a power station in Russian-occupied Mykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast was also hit, leaving parts of Mykhailivka and Donetsk without electricity. Jonathan points out that this is similar to the tactics employed by the Russians last winter.
Confirmation of strikes
🎦 23:08-24:30⏩
Jonathan cites Tim White who confirms that the Ukrainians hit the site that produces Pantsir air defence systems. He then reports:
- The Sheldogovsky Val plant in Tula was hit by three Ukrainian drones. Two drones exploded in the production workshops and a third drone caused the roof to collapse in an unused area.
- Only one Russian KH-59 missile was shot down yesterday. Jonathan finds this interesting given that the factory that produces them in Tula was recently hit.
- The only damage sustained by the Ukrainians from the latest wave of Shahed drone attacks was in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Jonathan reminds viewers that although all were shot down, what goes up must come down, implying that debris from downed drones can still cause damage.
Impact of strikes on Russia
🎦 24:30-25:17⏩
Jonathan reports that, in addition to the impact of the strikes in Russia itself, Russian occupied territories are also suffering from energy and heating problems:
- Sevastopol has been without water for 4 days. Jonathan highlights the impact this will be having on people's lives.
Ukrainian trench systems
🎦 25:17-26:31⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainians are continuing to build extensive trench systems and are using prefabricated units which improve living conditions for soldiers. He believes that this indicates that the Ukrainians believe that the war is likely to become more static in nature, with neither side making significant advances, and the conflict resembling more traditional trench warfare.
Return to top⤴️
Russian propaganda
🎦 26:31-27:26⏩
Jonathan highlights the importance of paying attention to what the Russians are saying on their TV channels. He references a recent statement by Margarita Simonyan, the head of Russia Today in which she claimed that:
- Russians don't mind casualties;
- Russians don't want to live normal lives;
- Russians are used to clawing things out of history by force;
- Russians know that force requires blood (as long as it's not her own).
She also said that the Russians want to create a new world order and will spill as much blood as necessary to create a Russian world (Russky Mir). Jonathan encourages his viewers to listen to what the Russians are saying and to make up their own minds as to who the bad guys are.
Return to top⤴️
Cyber attack on Ukrainian bank, Monobank
🎦 27:26-28:33⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has been subjected to a massive cyber attack. He explains that whilst the Ukrainians have been targeting Russia with cyber attacks recently, they are now on the receiving end of one themselves. The attack has been targeted at Monobank, Ukraine's largest mobile-only bank, which has been hit with a wave of distributed denial of service (DDOS) attacks, causing their systems to crash.
Return to top⤴️
Crackdown on freedom of speech and the right to protest in Russia
🎦 28:33-30:27⏩
Jonathan highlights the irony of a message that flashed up on the screen claiming that "This is what freedom looks like in Russia" when:
- Telegram has been disrupted in several Russian regions, particularly in Bashkortostan, where there have been protests;
- WhatsApp has also been down for nearly three days;
- A new bill has been submitted to the Duma which would allow for property to be confiscated for "spreading fakes about the Russian army" or "calls for anti-state activity". Jonathan believes that this will effectively silence anyone who wants to speak out against the war, the Russian government or Putin, as they risk losing their homes and assets. He sums it up by saying that people are free to say what they want, as long as they don't mind dying, concluding that there is no freedom in Russia.
Wrap Up
🎦 30:27-30:34⏩
Jonathan asks viewers to like the video, subscribe to his channel and share it with others. He thanks everyone for their support.
Return to top⤴️
