Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Ru Exports & Currency, Ukr Coral Missile, & Dovish Biden
Table of Contents 📖
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"China aren't really communist. They are China is that this hybrid version of communism, which is like this kind of quasi capitalist communist, like weird hybrid system. And they, and they, they're basically interested in themselves."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video as an Ukraine war update extra, providing additional insights and understanding of the war. He mentions some audio issues with the video that he noticed while editing.
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Ukrainian Coral Missiles
- Ukraine is developing the Coral anti-aircraft missile system, which should work against ballistic targets
- Ballistic targets are harder to shoot down due to their higher speed compared to cruise missiles
- The Coral missile is expected to have a range of 100 km, weight of 300 kg, 25 kg warhead, and speed of 3600 km/h
- Strengthening air defenses is a top priority for Ukraine's defense ministry in 2024
Anton Gerashchenko on Russia's Pillars of Strength
Anton Gerashchenko, a Ukrainian advisor, discusses the three pillars Russia's combat and economic potential were built on:
- Soviet heritage (territory, resources, population, infrastructure, weapons stocks)
- Oil money from 1999-2008 which solidified Putin's power
- Putin's political regime of total mobilization and control
Gerashchenko argues the war is undermining Russia's own strengths in these areas. Jonathan analyzes this, noting it will come down to who has deeper pockets in terms of equipment, personnel and money. He discusses the various advantages and disadvantages each side has in different categories (weapons, troops, technology, intelligence, etc.). Ukraine needs to gain more advantages to win the war.
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Russia's Oil Exports, Currency, and Reliance on China/India
Referencing another video by Joe Bloggs, Jonathan discusses how Russia is selling more oil to China and India at discounted prices and being paid in yuan and rupees rather than dollars or rubles. This creates two problems for Russia:
- The ruble has fallen against the yuan and rupee, so Russia is being paid relatively less
- Yuan and rupee are far less tradeable internationally compared to dollars/euros
Russia is building up yuan and rupee reserves that realistically can only be used to trade with China and India. Jonathan argues China and India are acting in their own self-interest and are unlikely to "pass back" any of the profits to Russia. Their main concern is their own large populations.
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Understanding Biden's Foreign Policy Stance
Analyzing a viewer comment, Jonathan discusses how President Biden has historically been on the "dovish" side of US foreign policy for 40 years, preferring diplomacy over military action. Examples include opposing the Bin Laden raid. The comment argues Biden is reluctantly undergoing a major shift in his relationship with the US military-industrial complex, which is difficult for him given his long-held views. Jonathan compares this to Obama's controversial increase in drone strikes, noting that drone usage further increased under Trump. He suggests this is likely a broader Department of Defense strategy rather than decided by individual presidents. The Ukraine war and other global conflicts are forcing Biden to become more hawkish than he would prefer.
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Kaliningrad/Königsberg
In response to viewer questions, Jonathan briefly discusses the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad (formerly Königsberg) and its history as a Prussian/German territory that became part of Russia after WW2. He recommends other YouTube videos that explain the topic in more depth.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support. He mentions his son has a football match the next day, so he will likely post an early video with others coming later in the day.
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