Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"They celebrate this. That is what the Russians are doing. If you're still on my threads arguing some kind of NATO expansionism or some kind of, oh, it's all the US's fault and Russia are not to blame and it's all the Ukro-Nazis being blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. Just actually watch the stuff that Russia do on a consistent basis. Have a chat with Andrew Perpetua. See what he thinks about the moral rectitude of the Russian armed forces. They're a disgrace."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:52⏩
Jonathan starts the video by addressing viewer comments about his new boom mic and his occasional stuttering. He explains that the audio differences are due to varied listener setups and that his speech is affected by his progressive multiple sclerosis, which makes it difficult for him to find words and speak fluidly. He reiterates that his videos are unscripted, relying on stream of consciousness.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 02:52-05:45⏩
- Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses from the previous day.
- The losses are very high, with over 1,280 personnel lost, 12 tanks, 19 armoured fighting vehicles, 52 artillery systems, and a significant number of drones (120) and cruise missiles (103). - He emphasizes that anything over 1,000 personnel lost is significant, comparing it to the lower figures seen at the start of the war.
- He acknowledges that the drone and missile figures might be inflated due to reporting cut-off times but highlights that even adjusted figures suggest a bad day for the Russians.
- Jonathan notes Andrew Perpetua's (who visually confirms losses) absence and the huge volume of videos he reviews daily. - A Ukrainian M577 command post carrier and a burnt-out MRAP were destroyed in the Kursk region. This is notable as it is the first confirmed loss of an M577.
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Gimla's strike in Luhansk
🎦 06:52-07:39⏩
- Footage shows two Gimla's missiles striking a Russian training base in Luhansk, causing significant damage and potential casualties.
- The footage shows personnel scattering, highlighting the chaotic nature of the strike. Jonathan speculates that cluster munitions might have been more effective in this situation.
Ukrainian forces in Turetsk
🎦 07:39-08:26⏩
- Jonathan shares footage of the Ukrainian 425th Skala Assault Battalion fighting in Turetsk, showcasing the devastating impact of the war on the landscape with burning buildings.
- An M113 and a Bradley fighting vehicle are seen moving through the destroyed streets, highlighting the intensity of the conflict. Jonathan contrasts this with the situation in Kursk, where Ukrainian forces are not causing widespread destruction.
Russian forces target civilians
🎦 08:26-10:39⏩
- Jonathan discusses footage (which he doesn't show) shared by Andrew Perpetua of Russian forces targeting civilians in Kherson with FPV drones.
- He expresses disgust at the war crimes, emphasizing the lack of military justification for these actions.
- Jonathan also highlights a Russian unit that released a celebratory video for reaching 4,000 subscribers, which included footage of them killing a civilian, further demonstrating the moral depravity of their actions.
- He criticizes those who continue to blame NATO or the US for the war, urging them to confront the reality of Russia's actions.
Possible Sabotage in St Petersburg
🎦 10:40-11:07⏩
- Jonathan reports on a fire at the Institute of the National Guard of Russia in St. Petersburg, suggesting possible sabotage.
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Russian Distant Strikes
🎦 11:07-17:13⏩
- Jonathan analyses the second night of large-scale Russian attacks on Ukraine.
- He points out that although Russia launched a second consecutive night of attacks, the number of missiles used decreased significantly (from around 120 to 10), suggesting limitations in their ability to sustain such large-scale operations.
- He suggests that Russia had been stockpiling missiles and drones, as evidenced by the lower number of attacks in the preceding months.
- While Russia used a large number of drones (81), Jonathan highlights their lower effectiveness due to higher interception rates.
- Jonathan analyses Ukrainian air defense performance, acknowledging their success in intercepting a significant portion of the attack but emphasizing the severe damage inflicted upon Ukraine's energy, water, and critical infrastructure.
- He mentions speaking to Greg about the attacks and criticizes the delayed response from the international community in providing aid for rebuilding Ukrainian infrastructure.
Iskander M strike in Kryvyi Rih
🎦 17:13-19:31⏩
- Jonathan reports on a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile strike on a hotel in Kryvyi Rih, resulting in confirmed fatalities.
- He believes that this attack, like the previous strike on a journalist hotel in Kramatorsk, constitutes a war crime, as it targeted civilians.
- Jonathan expresses frustration that Ukraine is still restricted from using Western weapons to strike Russian military targets, arguing that they should be able to defend themselves more effectively.
Cost of Russian Attacks
🎦 19:31-22:38⏩
- Jonathan highlights the substantial cost of the recent Russian attacks on Ukraine, stating that the combined attack with 236 pieces of ordnance likely cost Russia between $1.2 and $1.3 billion, a record high for the war.
- Footage shows a large explosion at a Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant. Jonathan stresses the significance of this attack, as it could have devastating downstream consequences if the dams are breached.
- He believes that Russia is pushing the boundaries of acceptable actions but risks provoking a stronger response from the US if they go too far.
- A large explosion is also reported in Odesa, with footage showing plumes of smoke. Jonathan suspects a logistics depot was targeted, impacting Ukrainian exports.
- He reiterates his view that Russia is intentionally targeting civilian infrastructure to cripple Ukraine.
Zelensky's Response
🎦 22:38-25:05⏩
- Jonathan shares a statement from Zelensky, who discussed the Russian missile strikes with Chief Commander Zaluzhny.
- They are preparing a response, potentially involving F-16s and actions in the Kursk region.
- Zelensky mentions "replenishment of the exchange fund", hinting at prisoner exchanges.
- He assures the Ukrainian people that they are working to restore the energy sector and strengthen their positions at the front.
Proletarsk Oil Depot Fire
🎦 25:05-27:43⏩
- Jonathan provides an update on the fire at the Proletarsk oil depot, which has been burning for nine days.
- Despite initial reports of it being under control, new imagery suggests the fire is still active.
- He sarcastically congratulates Russia's emergency services on their delayed response.
- Jonathan shares a comment from "Maca", an individual with experience in flammable goods tank farm fires.
- Maca argues that even tanks that appear undamaged in satellite imagery are likely unusable due to thermal and metallurgical damage.
- Jonathan agrees, highlighting that battle damage assessments are often overly conservative and that the damage to the Omsk refinery is far more significant than satellite images might suggest.
Omsk Refinery Explosion
🎦 27:43-31:44⏩
- Jonathan discusses the explosion at the Omsk refinery, Russia's largest. He believes it is significant as it disrupts Russian fuel production and potentially impacts exports to China.
- While the cause of the explosion is unknown, Jonathan emphasizes the cumulative impact of such incidents on the Russian economy, especially in light of sanctions.
- He references a video by Joe Blogs, which discussed how Russia is depleting its reserves to fund the war and compensate for economic losses.
- Due to the declining value of the ruble, Russia has effectively lost over half of its reserves.
- Jonathan notes that while Russia is struggling with oil production and faces OPEC restrictions, they are still benefiting from a relatively high oil price (around $70 per barrel).
- He emphasizes the importance of price caps on Russian oil, as they could significantly impact Russia's ability to sustain the war effort.
Ukrainian Air Defence Systems
🎦 31:47-32:42⏩
- Jonathan lists the diverse range of air defense systems Ukraine is using, from old Soviet-era to new NATO systems, showcasing their ability to adapt and utilize available resources.
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Tensions within Russian Forces
🎦 32:43-33:27⏩
- Jonathan reports on tensions between the Rusich battalion and Kadyrov's Chechen forces.
- The incident involved a stabbing and highlights the lack of unity within the Russian forces.
Rumours of Ukrainian Operations
🎦 33:28-34:59⏩
- Jonathan discusses rumours of Ukrainian operations in the Kherson region, with some suggesting a potential large-scale landing.
- However, he cites Rebar, a pro-Russian military blogger, who believes this to be a Ukrainian intelligence operation (psyops) intended to mislead the Russians.
- Jonathan tends to agree, suggesting that while there are weaknesses in the Russian lines, a large-scale offensive might be unlikely at this time.
- He notes reports that Ukraine is forming new mechanized brigades, indicating that they are prepared for a protracted conflict.
Long-Range Targets in Russia
🎦 34:59-35:23⏩
- Jonathan mentions that Ukrainian officials are preparing to present a list of long-range targets in Russia to US national security officials.
- This is significant as it suggests a potential shift in US policy regarding the use of Western weapons for strikes inside Russian territory.
Contrasting Civilian Responses: Kursk vs Ukraine
🎦 35:23-36:56⏩
- Jonathan compares civilian responses in Russia and Ukraine.
- He highlights how residents of Kursk are exploiting the situation by charging exorbitant prices for taxis and laundry services to those fleeing Ukrainian drone attacks.
- He contrasts this with the solidarity shown by Ukrainians in February 2022, when people refused payment and helped each other.
- Jonathan uses this to illustrate the cultural differences and social cohesion in Ukraine compared to Russia.
Traffic Cameras and FPV Drones in Kursk
🎦 36:57-37:19⏩
- Jonathan shares an anecdote about traffic cameras in Kursk still operating despite the ongoing conflict.
- Residents fleeing Ukrainian FPV drone attacks are receiving speeding tickets, even though they are trying to escape danger.
- He finds it absurd that traffic enforcement remains a priority in this context.
Wrap up
🎦 37:19-37:58⏩
- Jonathan concludes the video, acknowledging the length due to the significant amount of information covered.
- He thanks viewers for their understanding and signs off.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I'm not familiar with the "Rusich battalion" mentioned in relation to the incident with Kadyrov's forces. Could you provide some context on who they are and their role in the conflict?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
XML Tags: I will use the provided XML tags to structure the summary information.
British English: I will ensure all spellings and grammar are in British English (EN-GB).
Accuracy: I will stick to the information presented in the transcript and avoid making assumptions or adding my own opinions.
Ukrainian Spellings: I will use the Ukrainian spellings for place names (e.g., Kyiv, not Kiev).
Quotes: I will choose a quote that is impactful and understandable even without the full video context.
Queries: I will honestly note down any parts of the transcript that I find unclear for clarification.
