Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
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Table of Contents 📖
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"I wrote an article back in April 2022 for Only Sky, and that article said Putin can't win. There's no way he can win this war."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war frontline for May 5th, 2023. He mentions drone activity and military appointments in the Kremlin before diving into the frontline situation.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian Offensive Capabilities
- US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated that Russian forces are likely unable to conduct a significant offensive in 2023 due to munitions and manpower shortages, regardless of the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
- Putin has likely reduced his short-term goals in Ukraine to consolidating control over occupied territories and is unlikely to consider negotiations with Ukraine.
- Jonathan questions Putin's objectives, as he believes Russia cannot win the war without significant help from countries like China.
Frontline Updates: Kupyansk, Svatove, Kreminna
- Geolocated footage shows elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army shelling Ukrainian positions northeast of Kupyansk.
- Artillery duels and mutual reconnaissance continue along the entire line of contact in the Kupyansk sector.
- Russian forces are engaged in positional battles near Makiivka and Zhuravka Gully in the Lyman sector.
- Russian sources claim territorial gains south of Kreminna on May 4th, likely around the Bilohorivka area.
Bakhmut
- Russian forces did not make any confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut on May 4th.
- Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces likely counter-attacked northwest of Khromove and made marginal advances.
- Wagner PMC's advance seems to be stalling, with Prigozhin threatening to pull out by May 10th due to lack of ammunition and high casualties.
- Jonathan believes that Bakhmut remaining partially in Ukrainian hands by May 9th would be a boost for Ukraine and a PR disaster for Russia.
Avdiivka-Donetsk Front
- Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces have made marginal gains west of Novobakhmutivka.
- Ukrainian forces reported that Russian forces conducted 24 assaults on Ukrainian positions along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front, using highly attritional assault tactics.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces counter-attacked near Staromykhailivka as part of an ongoing pattern of limited and localized Ukrainian counter-attacks.
Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Fronts
- Russian sources claim that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian reconnaissance and force attempts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast around Orikhiv.
- Multiple Russian sources claimed that the Ukrainian operations were localized actions and not the start of the counter-offensive, but Jonathan believes these actions are part of the preparation for the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive.
- No significant updates were provided for the Kherson front.
Russian Prisoners of War
- Ukrainian officials reported an increase in voluntary surrenders among Russian personnel since March, with the "I Want to Live" project receiving 3,200 surrenders in April alone.
- A study of 400 Russian prisoners of war revealed that 40% voluntarily surrendered, with 55% motivated to fight to improve their livelihoods in Russia and 36% expressing commitment due to trust in Russian propaganda or support for Putin.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and supporting the channel, asking them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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