Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News #1
Table of Contents 📖
"This is how Russia makes its money, predominantly, and it's done itself over. And then the question is, you know, how long can it sustain its war efforts, given where it's going in terms of gas?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:37⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War News Update for 4th January 2025. He emphasises the current global volatility.
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Baltic and Nordic Region: Sanctions Enforcement
🎦 00:37-01:13⏩
- Finland and Estonia are inspecting ships at their ports to enforce sanctions on Russia.
- A Greek-flagged tanker, potentially part of the Russian Shadow Fleet, was spotted arriving from Russia.
- Jonathan explains that the Shadow Fleet comprises vessels, many of Greek origin, that have gone dark and are suspected of aiding Russia in circumventing sanctions.
Baltic Sea: Russia's Hybrid Warfare Against NATO
🎦 01:13-01:53⏩
- The Baltic Sea is witnessing an increase in Russian hybrid warfare activity, including:
- Russian military firing signaling ammunition at German Bundeswehr helicopters.
- An underwater internet cable connecting Helsinki to Rostock being severed.
- Increased drone activity over German training grounds and harbours.
- German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius acknowledges the reality of this hybrid warfare.
- The Friedrich Neumann Foundation highlights the threat posed by Russia's heavily militarised Kaliningrad Oblast, equipped with nuclear-capable missiles and capable of threatening neighbouring nations.
- Russian aircraft violating NATO airspace, particularly near the Baltic states, have become routine, with 300 interceptions last year alone.
Gabrielius Landsbergis on Lithuanian Independence and Ukraine
🎦 01:53-04:41⏩
- Jonathan cites former Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, known for his staunch support of Ukraine.
- Landsbergis recalls advice given to Lithuania by some in the West to halt their independence movement out of fear of provoking Russia.
- He argues that had Lithuania listened, they would likely still be under Moscow's control, drawing parallels to Ukraine's situation.
- Jonathan strongly agrees with Landsbergis, asserting that nations must fight for their independence, even in the face of external pressure.
Historical Parallels: Lithuania, Ukraine and Western Appeasement
🎦 04:41-05:27⏩
- Jonathan discusses a comment from 'Lance Bergus' (likely a misspelling of Landsbergis), whose father was involved in Lithuania's independence movement in 1991.
- Bergus echoes Landsbergis' point: Western powers urged Lithuania to prioritize Russia's stability over their own independence.
- Jonathan emphasizes that both Lithuania and Ukraine faced pressure to appease Russia, with their sovereignty at stake.
- He draws a parallel with Georgia, emphasizing that nations must choose their own path, even if it means defying external advice.
- Jonathan expresses interest in interviewing Landsbergis.
Poland-Hungary Relations: Diplomatic Tensions
🎦 05:27-05:48⏩
- Poland excluded Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán from the EU presidency handover ceremony.
- This diplomatic snub follows Hungary's decision to grant asylum to Poland's former deputy justice minister, who is accused of embezzling public funds.
- This situation reflects the strained relations between Poland and Hungary.
Polish Farmers' Strike and Ukrainian Grain Imports
🎦 05:48-05:56⏩
- Polish farmers are striking in Warsaw to protest Ukrainian grain imports and EU policies.
- The police are preventing tractors and slow-moving vehicles from entering the capital.
- Jonathan acknowledges the challenges Ukrainian grain imports pose to Polish farmers.
Slovakia: Protests Against Fico's Pro-Kremlin Stance
🎦 05:56-06:22⏩
- Thousands of Slovakians protested against Prime Minister Robert Fico's pro-Russian policies in Bratislava.
- While only 4,000 attended, Jonathan views this as a positive sign and considers Fico dangerous.
Slovakia-Ukraine Energy Disputes
🎦 06:22-07:24⏩
- Jonathan recaps recent energy disputes: Ukraine halted gas flows to Slovakia and Hungary, prompting Slovakia to threaten withholding future energy sales to Ukraine.
- Bulgaria and Poland countered by offering to sell energy to Ukraine if Slovakia refused.
- Jonathan believes Ukraine holds leverage in this situation, particularly with support from Poland and Bulgaria.
- Despite Fico's threats, Slovakia's state-owned power grid operator SEPS confirms continued electricity supply to Ukraine.
- Jonathan finds humour in Fico's empty threat, attributing it to Slovakia's need to profit from selling energy to Ukraine.
France and Germany Urge Russian Withdrawal from Syria
🎦 07:24-08:18⏩
- The German and French foreign ministers visited Syria, calling for Russia to withdraw its military bases.
- They emphasised Russia's support of the Assad regime and its overlooking of war crimes.
- Their visit signals the potential for renewed political engagement between Europe and Syria.
Jonathan's Concerns: Removal of Evolution from Syrian Education
🎦 08:18-09:26⏩
- Jonathan expresses concern over the Syrian government's decision to remove evolution from school curriculums.
- Drawing on his background in philosophy of religion, he criticizes the move, arguing that it will lead to a theocratic educational landscape.
- Jonathan believes excluding evolution from education is detrimental to society.
Russia's Strategic Shift from Syria to Libya
🎦 09:26-10:39⏩
- Jonathan reports that Russia is shifting its focus from Syria to Libya, citing Ukrainian military intelligence.
- Russian forces, mercenaries, and equipment stationed in Tartus, Syria, are being prepared for transport to Libya.
- He notes a recent incident involving the downing of an Azerbaijani airline, where Syrian S-300 air defence systems were allegedly involved, suggesting that not all military equipment is being moved to Libya, with some potentially heading back to the Ukrainian theatre.
Transnistria: Energy Crisis and Russian Influence
🎦 10:39-13:39⏩
- Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova, has refused Moldova's offer to purchase gas from European markets, choosing instead to wait for the resumption of Russian gas supplies.
- This decision has resulted in electricity cuts and an energy crisis in Transnistria.
- Jonathan finds this situation unusual, as Russia, not Ukraine, seems to be behind the gas cutoff as a means of pressuring Moldova.
- He provides background on Transnistria: a self-proclaimed republic heavily reliant on Russian support.
- Since January 1st, Transnistria has faced gas shortages, impacting households and industries.
- While Transnistria relies on stockpiled fuel, these resources are dwindling due to increased electricity consumption, with the potential for a humanitarian crisis by February.
Russia's Strategy in Moldova: Weaponising Energy for Political Gain
🎦 13:39-18:28⏩
- Jonathan analyses Russia's motivations:
- Short-term: To pressure Moldova into convincing Ukraine to permit the transit of Russian gas through its territory. Jonathan believes this is unlikely to succeed.
- Long-term: To influence Moldova's upcoming parliamentary elections in favour of pro-Kremlin parties.
- - Russia aims to sow discontent among the Moldovan population, blaming the current government for the energy crisis. - A pro-Russian government in Moldova would hinder both Moldova's and Ukraine's EU integration efforts, weakening Ukraine's defence capabilities. - Jonathan emphasizes the role of the EU in providing support and assistance to Transnistria, highlighting that without it, aid programs would fail. - He suggests Ukraine could potentially play a role in alleviating the humanitarian crisis in Transnistria.
- Jonathan underlines the significance of free Russian gas for Transnistria's economy, arguing that its loss diminishes the region's chances of survival and may force reintegration with Moldova.
- - Russia aims to exploit Transnistria's reliance on its energy, portraying the EU as a less reliable partner and emphasizing the economic benefits of aligning with Russia.
Russia's Crumbling Gas Empire
🎦 18:28-21:34⏩
- Jonathan discusses a map from Euromaidan Press illustrating the demise of Russia's gas dominance in Europe.
- All major pipelines to Europe, barring TurkStream, have been shut down, marking the end of an era.
- He points out the irony of Europe's dependence on Russian gas despite the ongoing war, attributing it to the essential nature of energy.
- Jonathan emphasizes that financial considerations often override political tensions in the energy sector.
- He highlights the historical context of Soviet and Russian gas exports to Europe, beginning in the 1960s.
- The 1973 oil crisis drove Europe's reliance on Soviet gas, solidifying a relationship that remained largely commercial, even amidst political disagreements.
- By 1985, gas exports became the USSR's primary source of foreign currency.
- After the Soviet collapse, while negotiations over Ukrainian pipeline control were intense, the need for revenue ensured gas remained a commercial concern.
From Commerce to Weapon: The Putin Era
🎦 21:34-25:32⏩
- Jonathan argues that the Putin era marked a shift, turning gas from a commercial product into a political weapon.
- He recounts conversations with individuals involved in the gas and natural resources sector in the region, emphasizing the complex dynamics at play.
- He criticizes naive political newcomers who fail to grasp the intricacies of these long-standing geopolitical issues, using Trump as an example.
- He highlights the US's long-standing efforts to wean Europe off Russian gas, promoting American energy sources instead.
- Jonathan underscores the strategic importance of Ukraine not just for its hydrocarbons but also for its rare earth metals and other valuable resources, elements which piqued Trump's interest in supporting Ukraine.
- He stresses the need for informed decision-making in foreign policy, cautioning against drastic changes that could undermine decades of strategic groundwork.
Europe's Energy Dependence: A Historical Perspective
🎦 25:32-27:20⏩
- Jonathan outlines the timeline of Russia's attempts to solidify its energy grip on Europe:
- Construction of Nord Stream 1 began in 2001.
- 2006-2009 saw Russia aggressively vying for control of Ukraine's gas transit system.
- The early 2010s saw plans for diversification, but by the time of the Crimean annexation, Europe's dependence on Russian gas seemed absolute.
- - Remarkably, this dependence persisted even after the annexation. - While the EU sought to diversify through LNG imports, it was only after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and more importantly, Ukraine's successful resistance, that significant change occurred.
Russia's Strategic Miscalculation: The Consequences
🎦 27:20-29:35⏩
- Jonathan analyses the fallout of Russia's gas strategy:
- Russia's attempt to weaponise gas backfired, leading to the shutdown of key pipelines and its ejection from the European market.
- The claim that the Asian market can replace Europe is unrealistic due to logistical challenges, lower prices, and the availability of alternative suppliers for Asian nations.
- Russia's reputation has been tarnished, hindering its ability to secure long-term contracts.
- This represents a major strategic defeat for Putin, with significant economic and political repercussions for Russia.
- The loss of the European market will strain Russia's budget and limit its hard currency reserves.
- Russia has lost a key lever of influence over European politics, explaining the anxiety of figures like Fico and Orbán.
- Europe's diversification efforts, sourcing energy from the US, Norway, and Algeria, make Russia's return to the market unlikely, even after the war.
- Jonathan criticizes Putin's shortsightedness, comparing his leadership unfavourably to that of Tsar Nicholas II.
The Significance of the Energy War
🎦 29:35-30:09⏩
- Jonathan emphasizes the wider implications of Russia's energy miscalculation:
- Beyond military conflict, the war encompasses political, economic, informational, and cyber warfare, with hydrocarbons forming a crucial battleground.
- Russia's loss of the energy war raises questions about the sustainability of its war effort in Ukraine.
Upcoming US Segment and Musk Controversy
🎦 30:09-31:11⏩
- Jonathan notes that the US segment of his analysis will be uploaded separately due to its length.
- He urges viewers to watch it, as it includes his take on the controversy surrounding Elon Musk, potentially straining US relations with Germany and the UK.
Wrap up
🎦 31:11-31:38⏩
- Jonathan thanks his viewers and signs off.