Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News, TVP Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"The International Olympic Committee has decided to make the Paris Olympics a celebration of war and genocide by working with Russian athletes."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:16⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another update, specifying it's the second part for December 28th, 2023 and will focus on Military Aid and Geopolitical news.
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Ukraine's Storm Shadow Missiles Range
🎦 00:16-02:46⏩
Jonathan discusses the range of Storm Shadow missiles sent to Ukraine, potentially being the original version with a 560km range rather than the export variant's 250km. This is based on the attack on Feodosia in Crimea, which suggests a longer reach. He highlights that while the UK likely stipulated against using these missiles within Russia, Crimea has been allowed as a target. A longer range increases safety for Ukrainian forces launching the missiles, as they can operate further from the front lines.
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New USA Military Aid Package
🎦 02:46-03:51⏩
Jonathan outlines the last US military aid package of the year, valued at $250 million. The package includes NASAMS and Stinger air defense systems, HIMARS rockets, artillery rounds, Javelin anti-armor systems, small arms ammunition, medical equipment, and more. Jonathan notes that this package mainly replenishes existing supplies to prevent depletion but lacks the "big stuff" Ukraine desires, like long-range missiles.
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Calls for Increased Range in Weapons for Ukraine
🎦 03:51-05:36⏩
Jonathan highlights the need for the release of the $60 billion aid package from Congress. He discusses Phillip O'Brien's comments on the Wall Street Journal article regarding calls for the Biden administration to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons to strike targets in Crimea. Jonathan agrees, believing that the US has been too lenient on this issue. He emphasizes the importance of range for Ukraine to effectively target Russian logistics. Germany's potential contribution of Taurus missiles is contingent upon the US releasing similar long-range munitions like Tomahawks, which Jonathan doubts will happen.
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Newsweek Report on F-16s in Ukraine
🎦 05:36-07:51⏩
Jonathan addresses a Newsweek report, citing a US source, claiming that the first batch of F-16s had likely arrived in Ukraine. This was refuted by the Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson, who labelled it "nothing material" and criticized the assumptions made about the F-16's involvement in destroying six Russian planes, possibly including the one in Yas. The spokesperson criticizes Newsweek for fuelling hype and perpetuating rumours, particularly concerning the refutation of Russian claims about F-16 destruction and their inexpediency in Ukraine. Newsweek then clarified that the F-16s would arrive "in the next few days," claiming 18 jets were ready in Romania. Jonathan acknowledges the potential truth but argues that claiming they are already in Ukraine only fuels the Russian narrative, even if those claims have been dubious. He believes reporting on hearsay and rumour is problematic.
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Japan to provide Ukraine with Patriot Missiles
🎦 07:51-08:26⏩
Jonathan discusses Russia's reaction to Japan's decision to provide Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry called it a "serious consequence" for Russian-Japanese relations, using strong rhetoric and empty threats, as usual. Jonathan, along with commenter Peace Style, believes it's a positive development that Japan and South Korea are getting more involved in aiding Ukraine, especially considering North Korea's actions, which will be addressed later.
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Ukraine's Domestic Arms Production
🎦 08:26-11:32⏩
Jonathan discusses the growth of Ukraine's domestic arms production. Ukraine boasts 80% private ownership in its military-industrial complex, employing 300,000 workers and focusing on indigenous design and production. Zelensky highlights the industry's potential, aiming for a top 10 global ranking, emphasizing Ukraine's ability to become a global security contributor and a powerful NATO member. Jonathan believes this is crucial for self-reliance and mitigating reliance on external aid. Additionally, it strengthens Ukraine's case for NATO membership by offering a robust military industry. Jonathan further clarifies that Ukraine is producing the Oplot tank, a T-84 based on the Russian T-80, contrary to some reports. He acknowledges the lack of information on the production numbers.
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Ukraine's Shahid Drone Production
🎦 11:32-13:35⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has begun mass production of its version of the Iranian Shahed suicide drones. Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, stated they already have "dozens" and aim to produce over a thousand with a range exceeding 1000km. Jonathan believes this increase in drone production will lead to a surge in nighttime attacks, similar to the initial wave of Storm Shadow and SCALP missile strikes. He observes an uptick in Storm Shadow use, speculating either a depletion of initial stockpiles or a ramp-up in production from Western allies. Jonathan anticipates a very active winter, with Ukrainian drone production reaching its full potential.
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New Ukrainian Mine Clearance Drone
🎦 13:35-14:11⏩
Jonathan showcases another new Ukrainian-designed mine-clearing drone, the "Kabana Bore." This adaptable drone can be fitted with metal detectors, various cameras, and mine sweepers.
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Analysis from Language Learner
🎦 14:11-17:50⏩
Jonathan shares an analysis by Language Learner, whom he has interviewed previously. Key takeaways:
- Ukraine tripled its weapons and equipment production in 2023 compared to 2022.
- 3,300,000 people are now employed in the Ukrainian defence industry.
- Ukraine is allocating $47 million to training new drone pilots. Jonathan notes the importance of training pilots alongside increased drone production and highlights the opportunity this presents for individuals who may not be fit for frontline service.
- The Ukrainian government is working on a 36-month demobilisation timetable.
- Zaluzhny stated that only a consistent increase in Russian losses would stop the war. He also expressed dissatisfaction with the new recruitment officers.
- Despite not producing new tanks, Ukraine has significantly ramped up the repair and refurbishment of damaged ones.
- Ukraine aims to drastically expand its domestic production of artillery, drones, APCs, and air defence systems.
- The Ukrainian army received $5 billion in financial aid on December 3rd, $3.8 billion coming from Japan and the EU.
- Ukraine projects needing $37 billion in financial support for 2024, with a projected GDP growth of 4.5% in 2023.
Potential Ukrainian Army Funding Shortfall
🎦 17:50-19:39⏩
Jonathan highlights a potential funding shortfall for the Ukrainian army. The Deputy Economic Minister warned that if the EU and US fail to provide specific aid amounts in 2024, Ukraine might have to delay pensions and salaries. He stressed that financial aid is vital to maintain the functionality of the government and prevent societal collapse. Without a functioning society, there's nothing for the Ukrainian people to fight for. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of supporting both the Ukrainian army and their government. He adds that conscripts will now be able to choose their brigade, provided they meet certain requirements before general troop sorting.
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Update on the Ukrainian Power Grid
🎦 19:39-21:31⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the status of the Ukrainian energy grid, reporting that it remains in good condition after the first month of winter. Daily consumption rates are decreasing, and electricity prices remain stable at approximately 7 cents per kilowatt hour. He contrasts this with Russia's failed attempts to cripple the grid last winter. Jonathan questions Russia's reasons for stockpiling cruise missiles while continuing nightly Shahed drone attacks. He posits two main theories:
- Russia is trying to exhaust Ukrainian air defences before launching a massive wave of cruise missiles.
- They are waiting for the arrival of F-16s at Ukrainian airbases to target them with a concentrated missile barrage.
New Female Body Armour
🎦 21:31-21:42⏩
Jonathan shares that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has certified the first body armour designed specifically for female service members, produced by a Ukrainian armour company. He sees this as positive news.
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North Korea supplying Artillery Shells to Russia
🎦 21:42-22:45⏩
Jonathan reports, citing Bloomberg, that North Korea continues to supply artillery shells to Russia, potentially increasing shipments based on satellite imagery of container transfers between the port of Rajeon and the village of Danube in Primorsky Krai. Initial estimates suggested North Korea sent 1 million shells via ships between August and October. South Korean intelligence reported a further 1 million shells delivered by 10 flights by November 1st. Jonathan points out that North Korea possesses one of the world's largest ammunition stockpiles, much of it compatible with Russia's Soviet-era weaponry. He suggests two potential countermeasures: intercepting shipments, which he believes would be challenging; or matching the supply, which would require South Korea to step up its production and support for Ukraine.
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India and Russia Discuss Joint Military Production
🎦 22:45-27:59⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to India and Russia's discussion of joint military equipment production, as reported by Reuters. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that this cooperation is strategic for both countries, contributing to Eurasian security. He emphasizes that Russia respects India's desire to diversify its military equipment suppliers and supports their domestic production ambitions. Jonathan analyses India's historical dependence on Russian arms and their recent diversification efforts, citing a Diplomat article "India Deepens Defense Ties with the West, But Criticism of Russia Remains Unlikely." He notes that India was the world's largest arms importer from 2018-2022, with 45% of its imports originating from Russia. However, this trend is declining due to:
- Russia's decreased export capacity due to the war in Ukraine.
- The perceived decline in the quality of Russian military equipment.
- International pressure to reduce reliance on Russia.
Jonathan highlights the uneasy relationship within BRICS, particularly between India and China. He points out that China's actions, such as border disputes, support for Pakistan, and rewriting of maps, directly undermine India's interests. This makes the concept of BRICS as a unified bloc questionable. Despite this, India is focusing on increasing domestic arms production for self-reliance, driven by initiatives like "Make in India" and "Atmanirbhar Bharat" (Self-Reliant India). Jonathan concludes that while closer cooperation with Russia might occur, he doubts Russia's capacity to contribute meaningfully, given its current constraints.
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German Green Party Leader on US Aid
🎦 27:59-29:27⏩
Jonathan reports on comments by Omid Nouripour, co-leader of Germany's Green Party, who stated that Europe cannot compensate for a potential loss of US aid to Ukraine. Jonathan acknowledges differing opinions in the comments, with some arguing that Europe could compensate if they increased production capacity, similar to Estonia and Latvia. He emphasizes that while Europe might not have the US's vast stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, the realization to ramp up production is growing.
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Negotiation Talks and Russia's Stance
🎦 29:27-31:20⏩
Jonathan expresses concern about the growing push for peace negotiations, deeming it futile given Russia's stance. He cites a Politico report suggesting a shift in focus from total Ukrainian victory to securing a better negotiating position. However, Nikkei Asia reported Putin telling Xi Jinping that Russia plans to continue the war for at least five years. This reinforces Jonathan's point, as Russia remains committed to its objectives of taking key Ukrainian cities, demilitarising the country, and removing the Zelenskyy regime. Jonathan dismisses the idea of negotiations as Russian tactics to stall for time and undermine Western support for Ukraine.
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G7 Proposal to Seize Russian Assets
🎦 31:20-31:50⏩
Jonathan reports that the US has proposed forming G7 working groups to explore ways to seize $300 billion in frozen Russian assets. The goal is to have a plan ready by the next G7 meeting on February 24th. He acknowledges the legal complexities involved and anticipates a lengthy process.
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Poland-Ukraine Border Blockade Update
🎦 31:50-33:33⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Polish-Ukrainian border blockade, stating that the Polish government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, is close to resolving the situation. Tusk stated that while the protesting truck drivers' demands might not be fully met, decisions are being made to de-escalate the situation. Jonathan reflects on a podcast discussion about Donald Tusk with Alistair Campbell (former UK Labour Party strategist) and Rory Stewart (former Conservative MP). Campbell praised Tusk for his efforts to combat populism in Eastern Europe. Jonathan acknowledges the ongoing debate about Tusk's political record but emphasizes his potentially significant role in the region. He believes Tusk's success in strengthening Polish democracy and countering disinformation is crucial, particularly considering the political shifts in neighbouring countries like Serbia, Hungary, and Slovakia.
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International Perception of Donald Trump
🎦 33:33-36:12⏩
Jonathan segues into a discussion about international perceptions of Donald Trump, prompted by Alistair Campbell and Rory Stewart naming him the "worst international politician" on their podcast. Jonathan contrasts Trump's divisive image outside the US with his enduring popularity among a significant portion of the American population. He notes that while Trump enjoys support from right-wing populist movements in Europe, he is widely criticized and mocked by the international community. Jonathan finds it interesting that even his own right-wing parents and in-laws, who align with Trump's politics, strongly dislike him as a person. He believes this reflects a broader understanding of Trump's flaws from an international perspective.
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Russian Athletes in the Paris Olympics
🎦 36:12-37:22⏩
Jonathan criticizes the International Olympic Committee's decision to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete in the Paris Olympics. He highlights the hypocrisy of celebrating sportsmanship alongside athletes potentially involved in war crimes, given the close ties between Russian sports and the military. He points out that many Russian athletes are active or reserve personnel, and their participation essentially normalizes Russia's actions. Jonathan adds a poignant note that over 400 Ukrainian athletes have been killed in the war and will not have the opportunity to compete.
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Civilian Vessel Hit by a Mine in the Black Sea
🎦 37:22-38:06⏩
Jonathan reports on a civilian bulk carrier, sailing under the Panamanian flag, hitting a mine in the Black Sea. The vessel was en route to a Danube port to load grain. The explosion injured two sailors, caused a fire, and forced the captain to run the ship aground. Jonathan condemns the danger posed by mines in the Black Sea grain corridor. He criticizes Russia for potentially continuing to deploy mines from aircraft, endangering civilian shipping under the pretence of targeting the Ukrainian navy.
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Wrap up
🎦 38:06-39:50⏩
Jonathan concludes the lengthy update, thanking viewers and asking them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He expresses frustration with YouTube's comment deletion policies, which he believes are inconsistent and opaque. He mentions receiving complaints from viewers about deleted comments and calls on anyone with information about YouTube's trigger words or algorithm to come forward. He ends by thanking the community for their understanding and support.
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