Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia don't need to control all of European politics or all of American politics they only need to control a few people that will paralyze those political systems"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video with a cup of tea, noting that this is a Ukraine War News update for 7th April 2024 and will focus on the latest General Staff figures for Russian losses.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Analysis of 6th April Russian Losses - General Staff Data
🎦 00:15-03:26⏩
- Jonathan analyses the latest General Staff Report on Russian losses for the previous day (6th April 2024)
- He notes that there's a slight uptick in Russian personnel losses - 820 is significant, 17 tanks lost (well above average), 54 APVs lost (phenomenal) and 54 artillery systems lost (phenomenal).
- He questions the veracity of the figures, noting that the volume of footage of equipment being destroyed suggests that it's largely accurate.
- Jonathan discusses a challenge from someone on social media about the figures and explains how he uses multiple data points to assess their accuracy e.g. open source intelligence, anecdotes/videos from Russians themselves, Media Zona/BBC Russia figures (benchmark min 50,000 Russian troops dead), satellite imagery of Russian stockpiles.
Accuracy of General Staff Figures & Open Source Data Analysis
🎦 03:26-07:31⏩
- Jonathan references Oryx (open source intelligence) data on visually confirmed losses from Andrew Perpetua.
- He notes that even Open Source Intelligence data is incomplete, giving the example of the battle for Tourney where only two-thirds of actual Russian vehicle losses were captured by open source.
- He emphasises that just because open source hasn't visually confirmed all the General Staff figures, it doesn't mean they are inaccurate. He uses the example of the attack on Avdiivka in October 2023 where the General Staff figures and Open Source Data tracked each other very closely.
- He concludes that whilst there may be a gap between the figures, the trend is accurate and that the General Staff figures are largely accurate.
- He also observes an increase in visually confirmed losses, which supports the latest General Staff figures.
- Jonathan analyses Ukrainian losses from Andrew Perpetua's data for the 5th April 2024, noting a 5:1 loss ratio (Russian:Ukrainian).
- He reviews Andrew Perpetua's data on visually confirmed Russian losses for 6th April 2024. He observes a large amount of equipment lost, highlighting a Pantsir air defence system that was shown as damaged in yesterday's video, and large numbers of infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) being lost. He notes that this is indicative of Russian attacks and suggests that the high IFV losses explain the high personnel losses. He observes that many MTLB armoured personnel carriers were destroyed by Ukrainian FPV drones equipped with night vision. He explains that according to Andrew Perpetua's data, Ukraine has overtaken Russia in terms of the use of FPV drones equipped with night vision. In March, the ratio shifted from 3:1 in Russia's favour to 5:1 in Ukraine's favour.
Geopolitical ramifications of Pro-Russian Slovakian President & Impact on Ukrainian Aid
🎦 07:31-08:03⏩
, 11:17-11:45⏩
, 24:30-25:52⏩
- Jonathan expresses concerns about the election of a pro-Russian President in Slovakia, noting that it's very bad news geopolitically.
- He explains how Russia doesn't need to control all of European or American Politics, just enough to paralyse decision making. He gives the examples of the impact of pro-Russian individuals like Marjorie Taylor Green, Mike Johnson, Trump, Orban in Hungary and the newly elected Slovakian president in terms of their ability to stall or block military aid to Ukraine. He states that if Russia can create political deadlock to delay/block aid for 6 months, it will be a victory for Russia.
- Jonathan reiterates the significance of the pro-Russian Slovakian President in terms of Russia's ability to influence European Politics. They don't need to control everything, just enough to cause deadlock and prevent unanimous votes on providing aid to Ukraine. For example if Russia can influence Polish or Hungarian politics it could be enough to paralyse the EU.
Analysis of 7th April Ukrainian Losses - Open Source Data
🎦 08:03-11:17⏩
- Jonathan reviews Ukrainian losses from Andrew Perpetua's open source data for 7th April 2024, noting a 2-3:1 loss ratio (Russian:Ukrainian).
- He observes that Ukrainian losses include electronic warfare systems, a Bukovil command vehicle, Starlink terminals, surveillance and comms equipment. He also notes the loss of two BM-27 multiple rocket launchers that were shown destroyed in yesterday's video (6 April), an M777 Howitzer, and several artillery pieces, a T-64BV tank, a Bradley IFV, a Maxpro MRAP, several APCs.
- He notes that a lot of Ukrainian losses are civilian vehicles.
Analysis of 7th April Russian Losses - Open Source Data
🎦 11:48-14:43⏩
- Jonathan analyses the Russian losses from Andrew Perpetua's open source data for 7th April 2024, noting that there is a significant amount.
- He highlights the loss of Russian electronic warfare systems including some Psylocke systems and drone suppression systems. This is good news for Ukraine as it reduces Russian capabilities.
- He also notes the destruction of another Brem-1 armoured recovery vehicle and a mine clearing vehicle.
- He observes the loss of two T-90M tanks (one destroyed, one abandoned and then destroyed by a FPV drone equipped with night vision).
- He also highlights the large numbers of Russian IFVs and APCs that have been destroyed, together with a large number of trucks and Bukhanka trucks.
Have Russia run out of ammunition for 2S7 Pion & 2S5 Giatsint-S?
🎦 14:43-16:02⏩
- Jonathan reviews data from Warspotting which shows that there have been no visually confirmed losses of Russian 2S7 Pion or 2S5 Giatsint-S self-propelled howitzers since December 2023 (almost 100 days).
- He explains that according to Warspotting's analysis, this could suggest that Russia has either withdrawn them from the battlefield, or that they have run out of ammunition for them.
- Jonathan considers this an interesting theory and highlights that the lack of destruction of a particular piece of equipment can also provide intelligence insights.
Ukraine attacks Russian Military Base in Nova Kakhovka with HIMARS
🎦 16:02-16:15⏩
- Jonathan reports that Ukraine has attacked a Russian military base in Nova Kakhovka with HIMARS.
- The base is used to repair Russian military equipment and has sustained serious damage.
Russia loses 11 pieces of equipment in failed attack near Terny
🎦 16:15-16:54⏩
- Jonathan reports that Russia has lost 11 pieces of military equipment in a repelled attack near Terny in Donetsk Oblast.
- This is not the first time Russia has sustained heavy losses in this area.
- Azov soldiers from the 12th Azov Brigade and the 95th Air Assault Brigade destroyed a Russian armoured column in the Kramina sector, forcing Russian troops to abandon their equipment.
Heavy Russian Equipment Losses in Avdiivka
🎦 16:54-17:47⏩
- Jonathan reports that the 25th Air Assault Brigade has repelled several attacks in the Avdiivka area, destroying 16 pieces of Russian equipment including MTLBs, BMPs and tanks.
- He highlights claims (potentially from the General Staff although this is unclear) that Russia lost 36 tanks and 11 BMPs in a failed attack in the Avdiivka area. He notes that Ukrainian paratroopers destroyed 15 tanks (including a T-90) and 8 BMPs. Jonathan notes that this could be a separate event as the figures are very similar to previous claims in the area.
- He concludes that irrespective of whether this data is new, Avdiivka is proving very costly to the Russians.
Analysis of Russian Tactics & Impact on Loss Figures
🎦 17:47-22:36⏩
- Jonathan analyses footage of Russian attacks and observes that Russia is using its tanks and IFVs as 'taxis' to transport troops to the front line, rather than using the vehicles for offensive purposes. This is in contrast to what was observed at the beginning of the war where the vehicles themselves were used more offensively.
- He shows footage of a Russian tank packed with troops being hit by (it's assumed) a Ukrainian munition. He observes that at least 20 troops were on board the vehicle which is a significant number, and that such tactics explain the high casualty figures, noting that if the vehicle is destroyed, it's likely that all, or a large number of troops on board, will be killed.
- He analyses footage of a BMP IFV packed with 12 Russian troops that is hit by two Ukrainian drones, killing or injuring some of the occupants. The footage shows the vehicle coming to a halt and the surviving troops disembarking. Jonathan notes that footage taken later shows the vehicle in the same position with all the troops lying dead around it, suggesting that Ukrainian infantry caught up with the vehicle and killed them.
- Jonathan notes reports that 10-12 Russian troops were killed in this incident and draws attention to the fact that the vehicle was packed with troops and that the incident demonstrates how easily Russia can sustain heavy casualties.
- He extrapolates these observations to consider an attack involving 9 vehicles. If 3 of the vehicles are destroyed, that's potentially 60 troops killed. However, if 3 vehicles make it to their objective with 20 troops each, that's 60 troops in position.
- He concludes that even though Russia is sustaining high losses of vehicles and personnel, if a small number of vehicles carrying a large number of troops make it through, they can still achieve their objectives.
Andrew Perpetua on the Likelihood of a Ukrainian Offensive & Attrition as a Tactic
🎦 22:36-24:30⏩
- Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's analysis of the war. Andrew doesn't believe that Ukraine should launch an offensive in the near future as they have nothing to gain by doing so, and that wars are not won by fighting for territory (like points in a video game). Wars are won by fighting for resources.
- Jonathan outlines the challenges facing Ukraine (e.g. a weak economy, limited manpower, demographic problems), but points out that Ukraine's key resource is the significant support it receives from Western Allies.
- He contrasts this with Russia which has few allies and whose allies are taking advantage of the situation to extract concessions. As a result, Russia has to rely on its own internal resources but is hampered by a weak industrial base and a struggling economy. It's also facing it's own demographic problems.
- Jonathan agrees with Andrew Perpetua's assertion that Ukraine should focus on an 'active defence' strategy - bleeding Russia dry by inflicting heavy casualties and equipment losses. He believes that if Russia continues to sustain heavy losses, it will run out of men and equipment. Whilst this will mean losing territory in the short term, Jonathan believes Ukraine will win the war in the long term. He suggests that Russia will be forced to commit newly mobilised troops that will be poorly equipped and trained and easy to kill (provided Ukraine has sufficient artillery ammunition).
Ukrainian Drone Strikes - Morozovsk & Engels Airbases
🎦 27:10-28:52⏩
- Jonathan discusses recent claims that Ukraine had destroyed six Russian aircraft and damaged eight at the Morozovsk airbase. He notes that satellite imagery analysis by 'No Report' and 'Brady Africs' shows no evidence of this.
- Jonathan also references Ukrainian claims about the destruction of aircraft at Engels airbase. Satellite imagery analysis from an unknown source has confirmed the destruction of an IL-295MS cargo plane and that a further two may have been damaged.
- He observes that if Ukraine is making claims about successful attacks on Russian airbases and then open source imagery shows no evidence of damage, it damages their credibility. He prefers it if they don't publicise attacks, but let open source reveal what has happened.
Overnight Russian Missile & Drone attacks
🎦 28:52-29:31⏩
- Jonathan reports that Russia launched a wave of overnight drone and missile attacks on Ukraine. 17 drones were shot down, representing a 100% interception rate by Ukrainian air defences. However, two missiles (one Kh-31 and one Iskander-M ballistic missile) were not shot down. It is not known where these landed but there are reports that Kharkiv and Kupyansk were targeted. Jonathan shows footage of what is believed to be a Russian glide bomb hitting a residential high rise building in Kupyansk.
- He observes that Russia continues to escalate the conflict by attacking civilian infrastructure, but doesn't fear any repercussions from the West. He contrasts this to what happens when Ukraine does something that is seen as controversial - it's all over the news.
Russian attacks on Kharkiv - a Civilian City
🎦 29:31-32:12⏩
- Jonathan discusses the escalating Russian attacks on Kharkiv, noting that it is a major population centre.
- He's frustrated by the lack of Western response, quoting a comment from a viewer that the attacks on Kharkiv are 'a clear example of how Russia purposefully escalates the conflict without having to fear any reciprocal action from the West'. He believes that Russia is taking advantage of the West's restraint.
- He agrees with a viewer comment who suggests the West should threaten Russia with consequences - 'tell Russian decision makers today, unless attacks against Kharkiv cease immediately, Germany and the United States will deliver Taurus and Atacams. We should have done this long ago'.
- Jonathan believes that Russia has demonstrated time and time again that it does not respect restraint and that failure to respond to escalation will just lead to further escalation. He's frustrated that Western decision-makers do not understand this, or are choosing to ignore it.
- He shares anecdotes about the situation in Kharkiv:
- Russians are destroying the city
- A personal contact has had his windows blown out again, although he has gas and water so is 'normal'.
- The situation is now very bad and amounts to genocide
- Jonathan speculates that Russia's targeting of Kharkiv may be an attempt to force the civilian population to leave, as Kharkiv could be a target for Russia in the future.
Russian Attacks on Zaporizhzhia
🎦 32:12-32:38⏩
- Jonathan reports on overnight Russian attacks on Zaporizhzhia, with reports of an aerial bomb and 5 rockets fired into the city, causing destruction and injury.
- He shows footage of a commercial property that has been destroyed by the attacks,
Ukrainian UH-60 Blackhawks filmed in Cross Border Raid on Kazinka
🎦 32:38-33:31⏩
- Jonathan reports on footage that has emerged of two Ukrainian UH-60 Blackhawk helicopters taking part in a cross border raid on the Russian village of Kazinka on 14 March 2024. The footage shows the helicopters deploying Ukrainian troops in the village. He covered this story at the time but the footage has now been geolocated.
- Jonathan reports that at least one of the Blackhawks used in the raid was previously owned by a US company (Ace Aeronautics LLC) which refurbishes military helicopters. The helicopter was subsequently bought by Ukraine and entered service in 2023. It is now being used by the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine for special operations.
- Jonathan believes that this is evidence that the Ukrainians supported the raid and that Ukrainian equipment was used.
Kyrylo Budanov (Head of Ukrainian Intelligence) on Russian Donbass Offensive & Need for Artillery
🎦 33:31-34:05⏩
- Jonathan reports that Kyrylo Budanov (Head of Ukrainian Intelligence) believes that Russia will launch another offensive in the Donbass in early summer 2024.
- Budanov has also reiterated the need for more artillery systems and ammunition.
- Jonathan notes that 800,000 artillery shells have been jointly procured by European Countries but this is not yet having a significant impact on the battlefield. However, Jonathan notes that Andrew Perpetua has spoken to Ukrainian artillery units who are content with their current supply of artillery ammunition.
Russia using Chemical Weapons in Ukraine
🎦 34:05-35:25⏩
- Jonathan reports that, according to the Daily Telegraph, Russian forces have been systematically using chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops along the front lines.
- Reporter Jimmy Rushton has spoken to several Ukrainian soldiers who confirmed that Russia has been using CS gas (tear gas) against their positions, delivered by drones.
- Jonathan notes that whilst CS gas is not lethal, its use in war is prohibited under the Convention of Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.
- He explains that CS gas causes panic and forces troops to leave their positions, making them vulnerable to conventional weapons.
- Jonathan doesn't seem too concerned by Russia's use of CS gas, comparing it to the use of 'shouting at' or 'shoving' people to get them to move. He questions whether Ukraine might use CS gas in the same way, and leaves it up to his viewers to decide how bad it is compared to other weapons that blow people's heads off.
Footage of Russian War Crimes - Extra Judicial Execution of Ukrainian POWs
🎦 35:25-36:11⏩
- Jonathan reports on the emergence of footage that shows Russian troops executing Ukrainian prisoners of war in the Kherson region.
- He notes that he's seen the footage himself, and it's another example of Russian war crimes. He states that Russia systematically uses torture and carries out executions and that this appears to be Russian doctrine.
China providing Russia with Geospatial Intelligence, Microelectronics & Dual Use Technology
🎦 36:11-37:25⏩
- Jonathan reveals that China has been providing Russia with geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) to support its war effort in Ukraine.
- He's been concerned about this for some time and always maintained that the only way Russia could win the war would be to receive overt military assistance from China.
- Whilst China has so far resisted sending tanks and IFVs, Jonathan believes they have been providing Russia with military intelligence. He suspects that China's provision of GEOINT data explains Russia's recent successes in hitting Ukrainian time-sensitive targets.
- According to a recent report by Bloomberg, China has also provided Russia with microelectronics, machine tools for its tank manufacturing plants, optical instruments, rocket fuel and has also increased cooperation in space.
- Jonathan believes that China's actions are why the US is increasing pressure on China. He's annoyed that this is not being reported by the mainstream media.
Washington Post on Ukraine's Prospects for Victory - 'Doom & Gloom'
🎦 37:25-38:06⏩
- Jonathan is critical of a recent Washington Post article which claims that Ukraine's options are 'bad or worse', and that there is 'no way out of a worsening war'.
- He disagrees with this assessment of the situation and points to the volume of Russian losses as evidence that things are far from hopeless for Ukraine.
- He concedes that things are challenging for Ukraine, particularly in terms of ammunition shortages. He believes that Ukraine needs continued Western military and political support, but is critical of the Washington Post's pessimistic tone, describing it as 'cheap journalism'.
Fire at Orsk Oil Refinery in Russia
🎦 38:06-38:25⏩
- Jonathan reports on the suspension of operations at the Orsk oil refinery in Russia due to flooding.
- This is good news for Ukraine as it will further damage the Russian economy. He wonders why this is not being reported more widely.
Wrap Up
🎦 38:25-40:08⏩
- Jonathan signs off. He hopes the update was useful. He's going to visit his parents.
- He believes that the General Staff figures on Russian losses are accurate and that the amount of equipment being lost by Russia is phenomenal.
- He reiterates his support for Andrew Perpetua's view that Ukraine doesn't need to go on the offensive, but should focus on inflicting heavy losses on the Russians - a strategy that will result in any Russian victory being a Pyrrhic one. They might take territory, but at a cost that will ultimately lead to their defeat.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Timestamp 17:24 - It is unclear who Jonathan is quoting when he discusses the Russian losses (36 tanks and 11 BMPs) in Avdiivka. He mentions 'a similar claim' and then refers to March 30 and 31 but doesn't identify the source. Is this the General Staff?
Timestamp 28:07 - What is the source of the satellite imagery that confirms the loss of the IL-295 at Engels airbase?
Timestamp 29:26 - Jonathan refers to a 'guided glide bomb' hitting a residential building in Kupyansk. Does he mean a KAB-500 or KAB-1500? What makes him think this and is there any other evidence?
Timestamp 32:12 - Who is 'Tim White'? Is he a journalist or does he live in Zaporizhzhia?
Timestamp 33:54 - Who are 'Daniela' and the 'Tochny team'? Are they part of Oryx or another open source intelligence group?
Timestamp 36:58 - 'There's no doubt in my mind that this is down to Russia's um this is down to China's satellite uh imagery provision' - This sentence doesn't make sense. I assume he means 'There's no doubt in my mind that this is down to China's satellite imagery provision'?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a long transcript and includes detailed analysis of Russian losses.
Task 1:
First, I need to extract the title, date and part from the Youtube Title. This is straightforward.
Task 2:
This is more involved.
The first topic will be "Hello Team"
I need to identify the separate topics, ensuring each title is specific/quantified/granular.
I'll need to check for Ukrainian place names (e.g. Kyiv not Kiev)
The last topic will be "Wrap up"
Task 3:
I'll need to identify the timeframes for each topic using the format MM:SS as the video is less than 1 hour. There may be overlaps where a topic is mentioned in multiple timeframes so I'll need to check for this. I can use this to sense check if I've missed any topics in Task 2.
Task 4:
I'll work through each topic and summarise using bullet points where appropriate and ensure I capture Jonathan's opinions/analysis/reasoning. I need to remember to credit sources and include anything about tea. I need to watch out for any spelling mistakes/incorrect words/placenames in the transcript, and remember to use the Ukrainian spellings where appropriate.
Task 5:
Pick a good quote - should be obvious as I work through the transcript
Task 6:
Make a note of anything that doesn't make sense and needs clarifying
