Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News (& Rant)
Table of Contents 📖
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"The greatest threat to Western civilization today is not Russia. It's probably more than anything else, ourselves and some of the horrible USA hating people that represent us."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the usual caveats about the accuracy of Ukrainian figures on Russian losses, which are indicatively useful and have been quite high recently. The figures for the previous day show 760 personnel losses (down from the day before but still high), 2 tanks, 13 APCs, 13 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 1 helicopter, 7 vehicles and 1 piece of special equipment. Jonathan notes the consistent attrition of Russian artillery pieces over the past week, which he thinks will hurt the Russians.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
Video footage shows three Russian MLRS being destroyed, with ammunition cooking off. This supports the high numbers of MLRS losses claimed by Ukraine recently. Jonathan believes this is devastating for the Russians.
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Ukrainian Artillery Ammunition Shortages
Ukrainian Defence Minister Reznikov said in a letter to the EU that Ukrainian forces are firing an average of 110,000 155mm artillery rounds per month, which is only about 3,500 per day. This is far less than what Russia was firing at their peak (60,000 per day) and is not enough for Ukraine, especially for offensive operations. Shell hunger is one of the biggest issues for Ukraine, and the EU, US and other allies are trying to boost ammunition production to help address this.
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Analysis on Russian Attrition and Collapse
A German journalist wrote an analysis piece arguing that Russia is being attrited at such a rate that they may collapse before the end of the year, assuming the West delivers what was promised in time. The article suggests Russia is not able to replace the tanks it is losing every day with its current production capacity, while Ukraine is being upgraded. Jonathan will cover this article in more depth in a separate video.
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Situation in Bakhmut
The UK Defence Intelligence update, drawing on what the ISW reported, says that in recent days, Russian Wagner Group forces have obtained footholds west of the Bakhmutka River in the center of Bakhmut. However, more broadly across the front line, Russia is conducting some of the lowest rates of local offensive action seen since at least January 2023. This is likely because Russian forces have temporarily depleted the deployed formations' combat power to such an extent that even local offensive actions are not currently sustainable. Russian leaders will likely seek to regenerate the offensive potential once personnel and munition stocks are replenished. In the meantime, commanders will likely be forced to choose between carrying out offensive operations and conducting a credible defense of the full line.
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Ukrainian Commander Demoted for Speaking Out
A Ukrainian commander, Kupol, was demoted after publicly stating that out of 500 men, 100 died and the rest were wounded. The Ukrainian army said the numbers were exaggerated and he wasn't authorized to speak to media. While some, like Andrew Perpetua, argue this stifles free speech and that public pressure should be applied to leadership rather than demoting competent military leaders, Jonathan disagrees. He believes that publicly criticizing leadership, especially during wartime, is unacceptable and the commander got off lightly with a demotion. Morale and information space considerations are crucial in war.
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Incidents in Russia
- Russian security forces report ammunition continues to detonate at a warehouse in Rostov, close to Mariupol but on the Russian side. An FSB building went up in flames after an initial explosion.
- Later in the evening, there are reports of burning in the distance in Rostov, exact location unclear.
- A fire broke out in a steel structure plant in Leningrad, about 300km east of St. Petersburg, with a threat of gas canisters exploding.
- An ammo depot near Mariupol was hit the previous day. This kind of destruction is taking place daily, though not much footage comes out of Mariupol.
Forced Passportization in Occupied Territories
The Ukrainian General Staff reports that forcible passporting of the population continues in the temporarily occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia region. In the city of Tokmak, the Russian occupation authorities, together with FSB representatives, threatened local Ukrainian citizens who refused to obtain Russian passports with deportation of their children to the eastern regions of Russia. Jonathan condemns this apparent war crime and the Russian idea of "liberation" by forcing people to adopt a Russian identity.
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Military Aid to Ukraine
- Estonia is transferring more weapons and special equipment to Ukraine, including rifles, scopes, binoculars, ammunition, individual and special equipment, patrol boats, thermal imaging scopes, and medical supplies. This includes important small equipment needed on the front lines.
- Latvia is sending $74 million in military assistance to Ukraine. With this, Latvia's total aid to Ukraine will reach $392 million, over 1% of Latvia's GDP. Jonathan notes that while the US provides the most aid in absolute terms, countries like Latvia are giving the most significant aid as a proportion of their GDP, in part out of self-preservation.
- Poland will send four MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine in the coming days, with more to follow after servicing. Jonathan thinks this is fantastic news and hopes other countries like Slovakia will follow suit. He also hopes this will spur the US to provide missiles for these aircraft.
- Germany is delivering Vulcano guided artillery rounds for the PzH 2000, ammunition for the MARS II MLRS, 5,000 155mm artillery shells (which Jonathan notes is only about 1.5 days' worth of firing for Ukraine), and has pledged additional IRIS-T SLM missiles. Germany will need to keep providing artillery rounds.
- Belgium is sending 240 Volvo military trucks of various types and 100 instructors to Ukraine, which will be very useful for logistics. The first are arriving next week and could be helpful in Ukraine's expected May counteroffensive.
- Sweden has announced it will send 8 Archer artillery systems to Ukraine. It is also giving the UK 14 older Archers to backfill AS-90s given to Ukraine.
- The first French AMX-10 RC armored fighting vehicles have arrived in Ukraine after Ukrainian troops finished training on them in France.
Potential Counteroffensive and Shell Hunger
Thomas Theiner suggests a solution to Ukraine's shell hunger is for the US to send 100,000 cluster munition artillery shells, which would give Ukraine more and better ammunition to stop Russian infantry attacks and preserve Ukrainian manpower. The US has not signed the convention banning these munitions and has a large stockpile. This could be a good argument for sending them given the urgent need and difficulty in producing enough regular shells quickly.
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Foreign Volunteers and Weapons Manufacturers
- Retired US Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Dan Hampton, known as the "deadliest F-16 pilot", said he is ready to fight in Ukraine on a private contract. This follows discussion of private military contractors potentially providing air support for Ukraine.
- Within a few days, a new US aid package will be announced, possibly as a response to the downing of the US Reaper drone by Russia. Jonathan hopes it will include items like ATACMS missiles to send a message to Russia.
- German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall will likely decide within the next two months on building a tank factory in Ukraine capable of producing up to 400 Panther tanks per year. Jonathan speculates it would need to be an underground facility to avoid being hit by missiles.
Financial Aid and Loans to Ukraine
One of the biggest loan programs in IMF history is being prepared for Ukraine. While Jonathan says Ukraine needs the money, he wonders about the strings that will be attached, as "there's no such thing as a free lunch". However, he sees no way around it, as rebuilding will require money from somewhere.
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Geopolitics and Concerning Rhetoric
- In the 2023 Dutch provincial elections, the pro-Russia party FVD, whose leader previously called Putin a "great hero", lost 10 of the 12 seats it won in 2019. Jonathan, while admitting limited knowledge of Dutch politics, finds it interesting that being pro-Russia doesn't seem to sell well in the Netherlands and hopes pro-Russian politics may be on the wane in Europe.
- Jonathan strongly criticizes recent comments by Donald Trump calling for a complete overhaul of the US State Department, Defense, and Intelligence agencies to "put America first", claiming it's a "lie" that Russia is the greatest threat, and saying "the greatest threat to Western civilization today is not Russia, it's probably more than anything else ourselves". Trump also suggested dismantling NATO.
Jonathan calls this "possibly one of the most egregious things I've heard from any major politician in the world recently" and a "real problem", speculating that Trump is either compromised by Russia or badly advised. He says if a UK party leader said something similar, he would not vote for them.
- Jonathan also lambasts comments by US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who claimed the US is "paying for a proxy war with Russia" and that she's "never seen Putin actually show in any detail his plans to invade Europe". He calls this rhetoric "dangerous" and "deeply ignorant", pointing out that Ukraine is geographically in Europe and Russia has already been attacking it for a year.
- A report in The Guardian revealed that in spring 2022, Trump's social media company Truth Social received $8 million in emergency loans from opaque entities, one of which had a part-owner later revealed to be a relation of a Putin ally. Executives were concerned about the payments but still accepted them when the company was in dire financial straits. Jonathan says he'd be interested to see how this story develops.
Wrap up
Jonathan apologizes for the long video and his rant at the end. He asks viewers to like, subscribe, share, and check out his upcoming frontline update video. He thanks the audience and signs off.
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