Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Oh yeah, feel feel free to drink that cup of tea you got there under the knowledge that if you drink that cup of tea, I will shoot you in the face, but you're free, you're free to drink the tea. I mean, what's it mean to be free to drink drink the tea? If I'm going to get shot in the face, I'm not really free to drink the tea."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another video, explaining it is the second part of the Ukraine War Update for the 24th October 2024, focussing on military aid.
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EU witholds €4bn in aid to Ukraine over corruption concerns
🎦 00:17-01:28⏩
Ukraine risks losing €4bn in promised aid from the EU this year due to delays in passing anti-corruption legislation.
- The EU has warned that if a law related to plea bargains in corruption cases is not passed by the end of October, funding will be postponed until 2025
- The EU requires nations to meet standards relating to corruption and transparency before joining.
- However, maintaining standards is challenging - Jonathan cites Hungary and Slovakia as examples of democratic backsliding
Lithuanian investment in Panacea drone production (Danish model)
🎦 01:28-02:57⏩
Lithuania will invest €10m in Ukrainian Panacea drone missile production.
- Jonathan notes that he has reported this before, but the new information is that it will follow the Danish model of direct investment in Ukrainian manufacturers.
- He explains that this is an approach he has advocated for since the start of the war as it benefits both the Ukrainian defence industry and the wider Ukrainian economy.
- He contrasts this to continuing to invest in the US military-industrial complex to obtain equipment for Ukraine.
UK trains 200 Ukrainian pilots on F-16s
🎦 02:57-03:37⏩
The UK's Royal Air Force has now trained 200 Ukrainian pilots, with another cohort about to begin training on F-16s.
- The UK will support Ukraine for "as long as it takes", according to UK Parliamentary Under-Secretary for the Armed Forces, Luke Pollard
- Basic flight training for Ukrainian pilots starts in the UK, before they transfer to France for an introduction to jets, and finally specialist training on specific aircraft.
French Delair Tech drones resist Russian jamming
🎦 03:37-05:16⏩
French drone manufacturer Delair Tech reports that their drones have so far resisted all Russian jamming attempts.
- Jonathan points out that little footage is released of drones supplied by other nations to Ukraine.
- He speculates that this might be a condition of supply, so as to maintain secrecy.
- He lists some of the other drones supplied to Ukraine - Polish Warmates (similar to the Russian Lancet), German Quantum systems and Helden Vector drones, and Turkish Bayraktar drones.
Baykar (Turkey) signs new drone contract with Ukraine
🎦 05:16-06:12⏩
Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar, owned by the son-in-law of Turkish President Erdogan, has signed a new contract with Ukraine.
- No details of the deal have been released
- Jonathan speculates that it might be related to the production of Baykar's Kizilelma jet drone in Ukraine. He observes that Baykar has been rapidly innovating in recent years.
Biden approves $20bn loan to Ukraine
🎦 06:12-07:08⏩
President Biden has formally approved a $20bn loan to Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets.
- Jonathan reminds viewers that he reported on this yesterday and notes that the relevant document has now been signed.
- This is part of a larger $50bn G7 loan to Ukraine, made up of contributions from the US, EU, UK and others.
US to exhaust USAI funds by January 2025
🎦 07:08-08:26⏩
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has stated that the US will have obligated all remaining Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds by the end of President Biden's term, in January 2025.
- The USAI funds are primarily used to purchase equipment from US manufacturers, although some can be used to fund Ukrainian manufacturing.
- Jonathan infers that this is being done to ensure everything is completed before a possible change of administration to a less supportive Republican one under Donald Trump.
Controversy over North Korean soldiers in Russia
🎦 08:26-14:56⏩
Jonathan analyses comments made by John Kirby at a press conference on the controversial topic of North Korean soldiers in Russia.
- When asked why the Biden administration hasn't given Ukraine the greenlight to use long-range missiles, Kirby responded, "Why not greenlight the long-range missiles for Ukraine's use? Korean soldiers. What these guys are going to do. What else are they going to be there for? We don't know what they're going to do. We don't know if they're going to deploy into combat or not. We don't know if they do and what strength. We certainly don't have a sense of what capability they might be able to bring to the field with them".
- Jonathan expresses frustration at what he sees as "fudging" from the Biden administration. He acknowledges that while there is value in strategic ambiguity, he feels Kirby's comments missed the mark.
- He suggests that rather than expressing ignorance about what the North Korean soldiers will do, the US should project strength and resolution.
- Jonathan illustrates his point with a humorous example of Kirby suggesting the North Korean soldiers might just be driving around selling ice cream, before moving on to highlight comments from other figures about the situation.
- Colby Badwine states that there are 3,000 North Korean soldiers currently training in Russia, and suggests they might be sent to fight in Ukraine.
- Jonathan criticises John Kirby for not answering questions directly and praises UK Labour leader Keir Starmer for being more forthright, forcing the Americans to acknowledge the presence of North Korean military personnel in Russia.
- Republican Mike Turner, Head of the House Intelligence Committee, has called the presence of North Korean troops in Ukraine a "red line" for the US and NATO and has written to President Biden urging him to make this clear.
- Jonathan reads out part of Turner's letter, in which he highlights Zelensky's concerns that 10,000 North Korean troops could be about to be committed to the conflict and calls on the Biden administration to provide a classified briefing on the topic to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.
- Jonathan agrees with Turner, arguing that the issue requires an "immediate response" to avoid a widening of the conflict.
- He then turns to the issue of the intelligence community and Pentagon's recommendation not to allow Ukraine to strike military targets deep inside Russia with US-made long-range missiles.
- Jonathan believes that the justification provided - that "there are few targets inside of a 300 kilometer range" - is "a problem" and disagrees.
- He cites intelligence assessments that Russia has now relocated the majority of its aircraft outside of this range, making the argument redundant. He adds that had Ukraine been given permission sooner, Russia wouldn't have had time to relocate their aircraft.
- He concedes that the US's claims that Ukraine has insufficient missiles, and that the US cannot supply more without undermining its own military readiness, are "more plausible" justifications.
- However, he concludes by asserting that the real reason is the US's "fear of escalation" and that "this is just pure nuclear anti-escalation ideology".
US refuses to allow Ukraine to use long range weapons in Russia (again)
🎦 14:56-20:06⏩
Jonathan analyses the reasons why Ukraine has not been permitted to strike Russia using long-range missiles such as Storm Shadows, Scalps and Taurus.
- He notes that the US has threatened to cut off aid if US weapons are used to strike Russian territory and speculates this might be why Ukraine is not using French Scalp missiles that are otherwise at their disposal.
- Jonathan uses the analogy of someone being told they are free to drink a cup of tea but will be shot in the face if they do.
- He questions whether Colby Badwine is correct that this prohibition applies to all donated weapons, expressing surprise that the UK has not permitted Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles in Russia, but appears to have no issue with the use of French Scalp missiles (which are practically the same missile).
US invests $800m in Ukrainian weapons production (long range? ambiguous)
🎦 20:06-24:54⏩
- Jonathan highlights the ambiguity surrounding the $800m that Lloyd Austin has announced will be invested in Ukrainian long-range weapons manufacturing.
- Although initially reported as relating solely to drones, Jonathan believes that this investment will include long-range missiles.
- He speculates that this is being obfuscated because the US does not want to admit to helping Ukraine build alternatives to ATACMs whilst simultaneously refusing to allow them to use longer-range weapons in Russia.
- He analyses Austin's carefully worded comments, noting that whilst he highlights investment in drone production, he does not rule out the possibility that some of the funding might be used for missiles as well.
- Jonathan acknowledges that although strategic ambiguity is sometimes necessary, the lack of clarity is frustrating.
- He jokes that too much transparency means Russia knows exactly what is coming. He illustrates his point by acting out an exchange between the US and Russia, mimicking their pronouncements.
South Korea reviewing position on lethal aid
🎦 24:54-25:47⏩
South Korea may be about to change its stance on giving lethal aid to Ukraine, according to South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol.
- He has stated that "depending on the activities of the North Korean military we can review that part more flexibly".
- So far South Korea has limited itself to backfilling US stocks with its own equipment.
European defence contracts 2022-2024
🎦 25:47-33:42⏩
Jonathan discusses a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) that found that between February 2022 and September 2024, 52% of European defence contracts (worth $180bn) were for European systems, compared to 34% for US systems.
- Jonathan uses this as a springboard for a discussion about growing European independence in the defence sphere, highlighting the arguments of those in the US who believe that Europe should be more self-reliant and those who believe that the US benefits from European reliance on their military-industrial complex.
- He observes that increased European independence will likely lead to reduced orders from the US, which may have a negative impact on the US economy.
- However, he acknowledges that European self-reliance may also result in a fairer burden-sharing arrangement.
- He concludes by reiterating his belief that the war in Ukraine is accelerating the trend towards European strategic independence.
Wrap up
🎦 33:42-33:49⏩
Jonathan signs off, telling viewers to "take care".
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
At 26:24, Jonathan says "Britain's not mentioned there, and I wonder about that, or whether we get brought under Europe". Is he referring to the IISS statistics on European defence contracts? If so, should I have included the UK in the 52%?
At 29:26, Jonathan refers to a video by someone called "Purin" - who is this, please?
At 31:54, he mentions a system called "Santee" - is this the MBDA SAMP/T?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is quite a complicated transcript. There's a lot of military aid news to summarise and Jonathan goes on a couple of very insightful tangents which I will need to do justice to. There are a couple of things I'm not quite sure about but I will do my best to summarise this accurately and seek clarification using the queries tag.
I will start by extracting the Title, Date and Part from the Youtube title. I will double check this.
Next, I will split the transcript into a series of Topics - I will aim to be as granular and specific as possible, starting with "Hello Team" and ending with "Wrap up".
Once I have done that I will record the timestamps for each of the topics I have just defined.
I will then write my summaries, ensuring that I include as much information from the transcript as possible and highlighting Jonathan's insights using markdown where appropriate.
Finally I will choose a quote - I'm spoilt for choice!
I will end by recording any queries
