Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"I mean, we know how well they operate on Twitter, on Telegram, on YouTube. We all experience trolls. I had to apologise to someone yesterday who I thought was a troll asking me a question that, if you read it one way, seemed really trollish. But actually, because you can't tell you can't you're not speaking to people face to face you just read the words you can't tell sarcasm there's a thing poe's law isn't there where if someone's being satirical you can very easily mistake it for actual reality because these days satire and reality are so close uh but anyway i accused someone i was quite harsh to someone yesterday and they're like actually a ukraine supporter and a channel supporter and I feel really bad. Anyway, it's difficult. Sometimes we make mistakes like that."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:40⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for the first part of his daily Ukraine War Update. He apologises for the late release of the previous day's Extra video, attributing it to a late-night cinema trip to see "Civil War".
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff figures for Russian losses on 07/05/2024
🎦 00:40-02:15⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses from the previous day, noting that Ukrainian claims of Russian personnel losses have dipped below 1,000 for only the second time in 10 or 11 days. This indicates that, despite the lower figure of 970, the conflict remains a war of attrition, with Russia attacking in significant numbers across numerous locations. 13 tanks, 19 armoured vehicles, 30 artillery systems, 40 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 2 pieces of special equipment were also reported lost by Russia.
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Ukrainian Losses on 07/05/2024 - Oryx Blog
🎦 02:15-04:04⏩
Jonathan notes that the volume of Ukrainian losses, based on information from the Oryx blog, are significantly lower than those inflicted upon Russian forces. He highlights that the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is approximately 3 or 4 to 1 in favour of Ukraine.
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Analysis of Russian Equipment Losses 07/05/2024
🎦 04:04-07:42⏩
Jonathan analyses images from the Oryx blog, highlighting significant Russian equipment losses, including the destruction of 2 S-300 launchers in the Zaporizhia region by Ukrainian forces. He emphasises the importance for Ukraine of degrading Russian air defences ahead of the arrival of Patriot missile systems. Jonathan also points to the destruction of large quantities of Russian equipment, including a UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, T-90M, T-80 and T-72 tanks, BMP infantry fighting vehicles, BTR armoured personnel carriers, and a significant number of civilian vehicles including ATVs and motorcycles. Jonathan suggests that the use of civilian vehicles may indicate a lack of availability of purpose built military vehicles.
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Russian D-30 Howitzer Stockpiles
🎦 07:42-11:22⏩
Jonathan discusses an analysis of Russian D-30 howitzer stockpiles. He explains that the use of D-30s - a type of howitzer that had largely been superseded - indicates that Russia is experiencing a shortage of artillery and/or is having to contend with high levels of barrel wear. Jonathan highlights that satellite imagery analysis from 2023 indicates that Russia may only have 37% of its pre-war stockpile of D-30 howitzers remaining. However, as the analysis is based on 2023 imagery, he believes the actual number remaining is likely to be much lower. Furthermore, he argues that the remaining D-30s are likely to be of increasingly poor quality as Russia will have used the best pieces of equipment from its stockpiles first. Jonathan concludes that this analysis, combined with other open-source evidence, suggests that Russia is experiencing unsustainably high levels of equipment loss.
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Russian Equipment Shortages - Anecdotal evidence
🎦 11:22-12:52⏩
Jonathan discusses an anecdote from a Russian soldier fighting near Chasiv Yar, who claims that military equipment is being taken from the front line to support the upcoming Victory Day parade in Moscow. Jonathan acknowledges that the information cannot be verified and may be part of a psyop, but, if true, views it as further evidence that Russia is struggling to sustain its military equipment supplies.
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2S7 Pion Self-Propelled Guns
🎦 12:52-17:33⏩
Jonathan discusses the destruction of a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled gun by Ukrainian forces, noting that this is a relatively rare loss, with only 2 dozen having been documented since the start of the war. He explains that the 2S7 Pion is a very powerful piece of artillery with a range of up to 56km, and is used by both Russian and Ukrainian forces. Jonathan goes on to discuss reports that the US has begun supplying ammunition for the 2S7 Pions that are in service with Ukraine, which will come as a relief to the Ukrainian units who were reportedly running low on ammunition. Jonathan then references a report by Defense Express, which questions whether Russia will be able to equip the 5 new heavy artillery brigades it announced last year, given the losses it has sustained. This is due to the likely depletion of stockpiles of 2S7 Pions and other heavy artillery pieces, which is supported by analysis of Russian stockpiles based on satellite imagery.
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Russian Missile and Drone Attacks Overnight on 08/05/2024
🎦 17:33-23:41⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine experienced a heavy night of missile and drone attacks, with Russia firing a total of 55 missiles and 21 drones. Of these, 39 missiles and 20 drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defences, representing a 95.2% success rate for drones and a 73.3% success rate for cruise missiles. Jonathan highlights that no Iskander-M ballistic missiles or Kinzhal hypersonic missiles were successfully intercepted by Ukraine. He expresses concern about the use of the Kinzhal, which will have caused damage, although the exact location is unknown. The targets are believed to have included energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Lviv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Zaporizhia, and Kryvyi Rih. Three thermal power plants are reported to have been seriously damaged in the attacks. Further information is emerging about damage sustained to private buildings, civilian infrastructure, and an eight-year old child is reported to have been injured.
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Ukrainian Missile Strike on Luhansk Oil Depot
🎦 23:41-26:08⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine conducted a missile strike on an oil depot in Luhansk Oblast, which is assessed to have been hit by an NGM-140A Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). Photographs of missile debris, consistent with the remnants of an ATACMS, have been geolocated to the vicinity of the oil depot, which is situated approximately 90-110km from the front line. Jonathan notes that the presence of missile debris on the ground does not necessarily mean the missile was shot down, as the debris is consistent with the expected behaviour of an ATACMS missile. Jonathan goes on to explain that, when an ATACMS missile reaches its target, the propulsion system separates, and the missile dispenses 950 M74 bomblets over a large area. He notes that Russia has claimed to have shot down over 30 of the 50 ATACMS missiles it claims Ukraine has launched, but is yet to provide any evidence to support this assertion.
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Explosions in Taganrog and Rostov-on-Don
🎦 26:08-27:14⏩
Jonathan reports that explosions and/or anti-aircraft fire has been heard in the Russian cities of Taganrog and Rostov-on-Don. There are rumours that Ukraine has used modified S-200 missiles, but nothing has been confirmed.
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Russian Friendly Fire Incident
🎦 27:14-27:41⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces have accidentally bombed another Russian village, marking the third such incident in 4 days.
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Russia Accused of Using TikTok to Undermine Ukraine
🎦 27:41-29:35⏩
Jonathan reports that, according to Ukrainian sources, Russia is using TikTok to spread disinformation and undermine Ukrainian leadership. Jonathan notes how easily people can be influenced by content on social media platforms, and expresses his concern about the growing use of AI and deepfakes, which threaten to further undermine society's grasp of truth.
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US Army Sergeant Arrested in Russia
🎦 29:35-34:03⏩
Jonathan discusses the arrest of a US Army Sergeant, Gordon Black, in Vladivostok. He outlines how Black, who was in the process of relocating from South Korea to Texas, travelled to Vladivostok via China to visit his girlfriend. Black's presence in Russia was not officially sanctioned by the US Army. Black has been accused of theft by the Russian authorities and, in a possible effort to portray him as a useful idiot who is sympathetic to Russia, videos have emerged of him criticising NATO and praising Russia. Jonathan reads an account of the situation from Mark Krotov, who has been analysing videos posted on social media by Black's girlfriend, Alexandra Vashtchuk. Black is described by Vashtchuk as her husband and is reported to be an admirer of Donald Trump. The relationship between Black and Vashtchuk is reported to have begun in South Korea. Jonathan concludes that Black's situation is a gift to the Russian authorities who may use him for leverage. Jonathan describes Black as "a silly man" for putting himself in such a position.
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Wrap up
🎦 34:03-34:32⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and explains that the rest of his content output may be delayed as he is out for most of the day.
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