Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"It's like piecing these bits of the jigsaw together."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:13⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video and a new day of war news.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Equipment and Personnel Losses (General Staff Figures)
🎦 00:14-03:55⏩
Jonathan discusses the latest figures from the Ukrainian General Staff regarding Russian losses, noting that they have exceeded 1,000 personnel for six consecutive days. He suggests that this indicates a determined Russian push in key areas, but one that comes at a significant cost. He notes high losses of tanks (20), armoured personnel vehicles (29) and artillery systems (20). Jonathan references his upcoming frontline update, where he plans to delve into the potential implications of these losses and the future direction of the conflict.
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Russian and Ukrainian Equipment Losses (Andrew Perpetua's Statistics)
🎦 03:55-11:10⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest statistics from Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua), who analyses visually confirmed equipment losses using open-source intelligence. He observes that for the second day running, Perpetua's data indicates near parity in losses between Ukrainian and Russian forces. However, he highlights a recent video from pro-Russian military blogger "Magyar" showcasing the destruction of a substantial amount of equipment, underscoring the volatility of these daily assessments. Jonathan analyses Perpetua's data for the day, pointing out the destruction of a Ukrainian AS-90 or Krab self-propelled howitzer, several KIPPs (Turkish-supplied MRAPs) and a range of lighter vehicles. He contrasts this with significant Russian losses, including two Buk air defence systems (targeted by Polish Warmate loitering munitions), various tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and a large number of civilian vehicles pressed into logistical service due to the depletion of Russian military trucks. Jonathan provides context, explaining that Russia, traditionally reliant on rail logistics, entered the conflict with a limited number of trucks and those in poor condition. He recounts how early Ukrainian attacks on rail lines exacerbated this weakness and forced the Russians to depend heavily on their meagre truck fleet, which struggled in the muddy conditions of the 2022 spring thaw. He concludes that the scale of Russian losses, particularly the reliance on civilian vehicles, is unsustainable in the long term.
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Impact of Russian Losses
🎦 11:10-16:33⏩
Jonathan emphasizes the human cost of the conflict, citing two disturbing videos he is unable to show. In one, a Russian soldier documents the horrific sight of his uncollected comrades' bodies left to rot for days. He highlights the impact on Russian families, left in the dark about their loved ones' fates due to the military's practice of listing soldiers as "missing" to avoid compensation payments. The second video depicts a devastated landscape littered with bodies, highlighting the sheer scale of Russian losses. Jonathan acknowledges the suffering on both sides but reiterates that the visual evidence suggests unsustainable Russian casualties. He juxtaposes these videos with the official figures from the Ukrainian General Staff, arguing that the visual evidence makes these numbers more credible.
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Russian Attacks on Healthcare Facilities and Civilian Infrastructure in Sumi Oblast
🎦 16:33-17:08⏩
Jonathan reports on the destruction of 210 healthcare facilities and the damaging of 1,588 more by Russian forces since February 2022, citing the Sumi Regional Military Administration. He also notes the looting of 125 emergency medical vehicles and destruction of 260, condemning these actions as typical of Russia's war tactics.
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Ukrainian Strike on Russian Military Training Base in Luhansk Oblast
🎦 17:08-18:52⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian military training base in Luhansk Oblast, reportedly 84 kilometres from the front line. The video shows what appear to be cluster munitions from Tochka-U ballistic missiles impacting the target. While the exact damage inflicted is unclear, claims suggest as many as 100 Russian soldiers may have been hit. Jonathan also scrutinises additional footage, this time showing the impact of four ATACMS missiles. He notes that one missile appears to be a dud, with the cluster munitions failing to disperse and the missile itself detonating on impact. The remaining three missiles successfully deploy their submunitions, causing widespread damage. He acknowledges the difficulty in assessing the effectiveness of these strikes based solely on the available footage but acknowledges that Ukrainian forces likely have access to better intelligence. He questions whether ATACMS missiles might be better utilised against high-value targets such as airbases but concedes that without full intelligence, it is impossible to definitively judge the strategic merit of these strikes.
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Russian Electronic Warfare Countering US-Supplied Excalibur Precision Guided Munitions
🎦 18:52-21:30⏩
Jonathan discusses the declining effectiveness of US-supplied M982 Excalibur GPS-guided precision artillery projectiles due to Russian electronic warfare countermeasures. He quotes Dr. Daniel Patt, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, who, in testimony to the House Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Information Technology and Innovation on March 13, 2024, revealed that the initial effectiveness of these rounds, believed to be around 70%, had plummeted to a mere 6% after just six weeks. Jonathan expresses surprise at the significant decline and postulates that this may explain the decrease in observed Excalibur strikes, which he previously attributed to a potential halt in supplies. He concludes that the Russians' successful adaptation highlights the critical role of electronic warfare in modern conflicts.
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Alleged Russian Destruction of Ukrainian HIMARS System
🎦 21:30-22:40⏩
Jonathan investigates reports and footage suggesting that Russian forces have destroyed a US-supplied HIMARS rocket launcher. He analyses a video shared on social media purporting to show the destruction of two HIMARS systems by Lancet loitering munitions. However, after close examination of the footage, he casts doubt on these claims. Citing analysis from "War Vehicle Tracker" (@WarVehTracker), Jonathan suggests that the video shows one confirmed HIMARS and another vehicle, likely a truck, being hit. He acknowledges that the absence of secondary explosions does not definitively rule out the destruction of the HIMARS system, as it may have already expended its ammunition or the fuel onboard may not have ignited. Nonetheless, he urges caution in interpreting the footage and emphasises the need for further verification.
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Russian Missile Strikes on Odessa
🎦 22:40-23:51⏩
Jonathan reports on a significant Russian missile attack on Odessa. He notes that the Russians targeted and destroyed a large warehouse belonging to Nova Poshta (Ukrainian postal service), causing multiple injuries. The attack involved ballistic missiles and highlights the vulnerability of civilian infrastructure. Jonathan expresses concern about the escalating frequency and intensity of Russian strikes on Odessa.
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Ukrainian Drone Strikes Inside Russia
🎦 23:51-25:18⏩
Jonathan outlines a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on targets within Russia. These include infrastructure strikes in the Orel and Smolensk regions, three explosions at the Afipsk refinery in Krasnodar Krai, and reported attacks on Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov and Bryansk. He notes the lack of confirmed information on the extent of the damage, highlighting the difficulty in verifying these strikes. Jonathan speculates that the Ukrainians may have successfully hit strategically significant targets, such as airfields, but acknowledges the possibility that some or all of the drones were intercepted. He reflects on a previous discussion about downed Ukrainian drones found near Moscow, suggesting that the number of drones launched at Russian targets might be greater than publicly known, with a significant proportion potentially failing to reach their objectives.
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Power Outages in Russian Regions Bordering Ukraine Following Drone Attacks
🎦 25:18-26:25⏩
Jonathan reports on power outages in Russian regions bordering Ukraine following the overnight drone attacks. He specifically mentions the targeting of the Afipsky oil refinery and compares it to the previous night's drone strike, which caused a fire at the Ryazan refinery. This suggests a potential shift in Ukrainian strategy, potentially disregarding previous US requests to avoid striking Russian oil infrastructure. He provides additional details on specific regions affected:
- Smolensk Oblast: Locals reported explosions and a fire in the Roslavlsky district. Governor Anatoly Artamonov confirmed the attack and stated that civilian power infrastructure was targeted.
- Orel Region: Energy infrastructure was reportedly hit.
- Smolensk Region: A drone strike hit a substation between Kozlov and Bechatnik in the Rozlovel district.
Jonathan concludes that the Ukrainians appear to be targeting both oil refineries and electrical substations in their latest wave of strikes.
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Ukrainian Strike on Holivka (Donetsk Oblast)
🎦 26:25-26:54⏩
Jonathan briefly touches on a reported Ukrainian strike on a target in the occupied city of Holivka, north of Donetsk city. He mentions that details are still emerging, with Russian sources claiming only one person was injured in the attack.
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Satellite Imagery Reveals Earlier Ukrainian Drone Attack on Oil Depot in Kadymovo (Smolensk Region)
🎦 26:54-27:53⏩
Jonathan discusses recently released satellite imagery revealing the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone attack on an oil depot in Kadymovo, Smolensk region on April 20th. The images show extensive damage, with only two out of sixteen fuel tanks surviving the attack. Nine smaller tanks containing fuel and lubricants were also destroyed. He points out that the interconnected nature of these fuel storage facilities means that damage to one tank can have a knock-on effect on others. Jonathan concludes that this attack, though occurring weeks earlier, demonstrates the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes on Russian fuel logistics.
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US Department of State Alleges Russian Use of Chemical Weapons
🎦 27:53-29:53⏩
Jonathan reports that the US Department of State is preparing a determination for Congress alleging the use of chemical weapons, specifically chloropicrin, by Russian forces against Ukrainian troops. This determination, made under the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991, follows widespread reports of Russian troops deploying tear gas (CS gas) on the battlefield. Jonathan cites expert opinion from John Ridge (@John_Ridge), who expresses scepticism about the claims regarding chloropicrin. Ridge argues that there is no evidence to suggest that Russia stockpiles this chemical as a battlefield agent. Despite Ridge's reservations, Jonathan highlights statements from the US Department of State accusing Russia of using chemical weapons, including chloropicrin, against Ukrainian forces. The statement alleges that the use of such chemicals aims to dislodge Ukrainian troops from fortified positions and gain a tactical advantage. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the accuracy of the claims, noting potential confusion between CS gas and chloropicrin. However, he acknowledges that the US Department of State likely possesses strong evidence to support their allegations. He concludes that the use of any chemical agent, including CS gas, constitutes a violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention.
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Russian Drones Operating From Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
🎦 29:53-33:18⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian military intelligence claims that Russia is operating attack drones from the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. This assertion, supported by intercepted camera footage of a Russian drone flying over the plant, raises concerns about the risk of catastrophic consequences. While acknowledging the serious safety implications, Jonathan analyses the situation from a purely military standpoint, arguing that the power plant offers a strategically advantageous sanctuary for Russian forces. He explains that Russia, having already stationed military equipment within the plant's grounds, is exploiting the Ukrainians' reluctance to strike a nuclear facility. Jonathan speculates that Ukrainian forces might consider using smaller, less destructive FPV drones to target Russian equipment and personnel at the power plant. He reasons that such drones, while posing minimal risk to the reactors, could provide a means of counteracting Russian activities without triggering a wider nuclear incident. He acknowledges the potential PR challenges and international condemnation such a move might generate but suggests that, from a purely tactical perspective, using FPV drones against Russian assets at the power plant could be a viable option.
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Unverified Report: Russian Troops Kill Cows Near Kharkiv
🎦 33:18-33:43⏩
Jonathan shares an unverified report from Visegrad (@visegrad24) alleging that Russian troops have machine-gunned hundreds of cows near Kharkiv in a deliberate act of cruelty and an attempt to starve the Ukrainian population. While unable to verify the report, Jonathan expresses concern and draws parallels with the Holodomor, the man-made famine orchestrated by the Soviet government in Ukraine in the 1930s.
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Propaganda: Children's Drawings of War?
🎦 33:43-35:05⏩
Jonathan discusses images circulating online depicting children's drawings of the war, expressing scepticism about their authenticity. The drawings, featuring detailed depictions of tanks and military equipment, appear too advanced for young children. He questions whether they were actually created by adults and used as propaganda, with children posed smiling in front of them for a more impactful message. Jonathan condemns this potential exploitation of children, highlighting the insidious nature of such propaganda efforts.
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Elon Musk's Comments on Russia
🎦 35:05-35:11⏩
Jonathan briefly mentions Elon Musk and his recent statements on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, characterising them as "nonsense". He does not elaborate further on the specifics of Musk's comments.
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Wrap up
🎦 35:11-35:25⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking viewers for their support, encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share. He mentions having to leave shortly to vote in local elections and expresses interest in the potential impact of these elections on the political landscape.
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