Ukraine War Update: Overnight & Other News - UN Says Human Safari = War Crimes -

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:14⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the ATP Geopolitics "Ukraine War News Update" for the 29th of May 2025, noting that it's been a "somewhat quieter day."

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Russian Materiel and Personnel Losses

🎦 00:15-02:49⏩
The Ukrainian General Staff reported 1,050 Russian personnel losses, which is consistent with recent figures staying above 1,000. However, materiel losses were remarkably low, including zero tanks, only one armoured fighting vehicle (AFV), 31 artillery systems, and 56 vehicles/fuel tanks. Jonathan pondered the reasons for this low materiel loss, questioning if Russians are taking a breather, amassing troops, or have run out of equipment. Yakub Yanovsky from Oryx suggested it's a clear policy shift by Russia to not use AFVs in most assaults, possibly due to the reduced size of their attack groups (from 20 men down to 2-12) or the idea that Russian soldiers are more expendable than equipment. Andrew Perpetua's observations support this, indicating that while the number of attacks might seem high, they are often conducted with very few personnel, leading to fewer overall losses, and thus little mechanised equipment is used.

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Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Military Facilities

🎦 02:49-05:00⏩
A Ukrainian HIMARS strike successfully destroyed a Russian military facility in Koronevo, Kursk region. Although initially claimed by Russia to be a hospital, this site was in fact a permanent base for Russian troops involved in attacks on the Sumy region, suggesting Ukraine is effectively targeting Russian staging positions. Jonathan highlighted an increasing trend of Ukrainian forces using fiber optic FPV drones for precision strikes. Footage showed the "Worm Busters" unit of the 414th Obbrubas using these drones to destroy hard-to-reach Russian equipment inside a hangar, causing a considerable explosion. In another instance, the 118th TD Brigade used similar drones to destroy a Russian hangar containing motorcycles, drone jammers, and ammunition, resulting in explosive "cooking off" of the munitions.

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Russian Glide Bomb Strikes on Zaporizhia

🎦 05:01-06:07⏩
Russian forces dropped five guided glide bombs on private homes in the Polohy district of the Zaporizhia region, leading to the destruction and damage of residential buildings and people being trapped under rubble. Jonathan noted that while Russia has a history of striking civilian targets, he also cautioned that in fairness, "this happens both sides" (referring to the difficulty of confirming targets), but highlighted that Russian glide bombs are used "with world abandon" and are generally considered less accurate than Ukrainian munitions.

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Death of Stavropol Deputy Mayor in Grenade Explosion

🎦 06:07-08:26⏩
Zagurtsev, the 29-year-old first deputy mayor of Stavropol, who was involved in directing airstrikes on Mariupol, was killed by a grenade explosion. Preliminary reports suggest the perpetrator, Nikita Penkov, had rented an apartment in the same building for 15 days to observe Zagurtsev's daily routine. The improvised explosive device was hidden in Penkov's bag, described as a caseless bomb with an estimated power of 300g of TNT. Jonathan noted a lack of clarity on whether it was a suicide bomb or an accident, but suggested it appeared to be an act of partisan activity. He also remarked on the sentiment that for many, it was "good riddance" due to Zagurtsev's actions.

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Fires in Russia (Moscow & St. Petersburg)

🎦 08:26-10:21⏩
Two notable fires occurred in Russia: a construction market in Solnechnogorsk, near Moscow, spanning 2,100 square metres, with explosions (possibly paint cans) heard. More significantly, a large fire erupted at the Avangard plant in St. Petersburg, which produces radio electronics and microcircuits vital for Russia's military-industrial complex. The fire, whose cause was unclear, took all night to extinguish. Avangard, founded in 1948, is considered one of Russia's strategic enterprises, deeply involved in developing professional electronics, automation, and microsystems, with products supplied across Russia and exported to China and the UAE.

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Overnight Drone Activity & Missile Strike in Mykolaiv

🎦 10:46-12:35⏩
Russian forces launched 90 drones into Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian air defence shot down only 10, with another 46 suppressed by electronic warfare, leading to a "pretty poor" success rate of 56 out of 90, meaning 34 drones were not intercepted. Jonathan questioned whether this indicated Ukrainian difficulties or improved Russian flight plans, though no reports of significant damage emerged. In the Mykolaiv region, a Russian ballistic missile struck a farm, killing one person and injuring three, while a separate drone attack also killed two men. Jonathan mused that while tragic, a farm strike is preferable to a military or industrial target.

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Russian Military Morale and Internal Views of the War

🎦 12:38-16:07⏩
Jonathan presented insights into Russian military morale. A Russian officer interviewed by Z-blogger Maxim Kalashnikov in the Kursk region reportedly stated the war "must be stopped altogether," deeming it "senseless mass slaughter" and acknowledging a lack of offensive capabilities. A Russian deserter living in Paris leaked top-secret information, claiming that only 20% of Russian troops are convinced by Putin's rhetoric, with most secretly mocking him and failing to understand the war's objectives or its prolonged duration. This deserter confirmed Russia is "getting bogged down in a war of attrition." Jonathan further noted that Russia's deep stockpiles are at "all-time lows," raising questions about the sustainability of their tactical advances. He expressed horror at videos depicting brutal treatment of Russian soldiers by their own officers, including "refuseniks" being beaten, tied to trees, or dragged behind vehicles, highlighting severe internal discipline issues and low morale.

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UN Confirms Russian War Crimes in Kherson & Russia's Nuclear Data Leak

🎦 17:03-19:01⏩
The UN has officially confirmed that Russian drone attacks on civilians in Kherson constitute "planned and organized crimes against humanity," validating previous reports from journalists like Zarina Zabriskie. In a separate, highly significant development, over 2 million confidential documents detailing Russia's nuclear command, control, and infrastructure were leaked online. The German press, Der Spiegel, revealed these documents were not stolen directly but accessed from insecure servers used by contractors of the Avant Garde system. The leak contains extraordinary detail, including bunker layouts, alarm systems, communication protocols, and even the locations of toilets, representing one of the biggest security breaches in Russia's history. Jonathan questioned the full extent of their usefulness to foreign intelligence services.

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Russian-Linked Cyber Attacks on UK Ministry of Defence

🎦 19:02-21:18⏩
Russian-linked hackers targeted the UK Ministry of Defence by posing as journalists, though the cyberattack was detected and thwarted. Jonathan commented that such overt aggressive actions by Russia against European nations are strategically ill-advised, as they tend to unite rather than divide the continent against Russia. He argued that doing "things that are too overtly anti any given nation" ultimately makes Russia "obviously the enemy." The UK, already consistently anti-Russia, has responded by unveiling a new Cyber Command tasked with managing both offensive and defensive cyber efforts.

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Trump's Stance on Russia and "Taco Trump" Nickname

🎦 21:18-28:32⏩
Jonathan discussed Donald Trump's perceived "weakness" regarding Russia, noting his tendency to "chicken out" on imposing pressure. Jonathan cited a CBS interview where Trump gave Russia two weeks to decide on peace talks, expressing disappointment about recent killings during negotiations but not taking further action. Former Putin advisor Andrei Ilyarionov, in an interview, criticised Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff as "unbelievably incompetent" and "ignorant" of facts, having spent eight hours with Putin but "zero seconds" with Ukrainians, leading him to parrot Kremlin propaganda. Jonathan reiterated his belief, shared by Financial Times commentator Robert Armstrong (who coined "Taco Trump"), that publicly calling Trump "weak" on Russia and using such nicknames will annoy him enough to provoke him into acting more decisively against Putin's interests to prove his strength.

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Istanbul Peace Talks and Energy Infrastructure Agreement

🎦 28:32-31:20⏩
Ukraine is prepared for the next round of Istanbul peace talks but demands Russia share its ceasefire memoranda beforehand. An analyst described these talks as "pointless," suggesting Ukraine attends to maintain US support, while Russia uses them to reaffirm its claim to all four occupied oblasts. A key insight is a presumed informal agreement: Ukraine refrains from hitting Russian energy infrastructure, and Russia avoids Ukraine's power grids, indicating mutual deterrence based on fear of retaliation. While Ukraine targets Russian war industry infrastructure (munitions, battery plants), Russia continues to hit civilians. Furthermore, POW transfers, though a positive outcome, consistently reveal the "barbarity of Russian behaviour," with common complaints of rape, torture, beatings, and malnutrition. Jonathan received an update via Pierre indicating Russia is now extensively using Garans (Shaheds) much closer to the front lines in Donetsk Oblast, with 37 impacts recorded, a new record, rather than solely on deep strikes. He contemplates whether Ukraine should adopt a similar strategy with its one-way attack drones.

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Storks and the Environmental Cost of War

🎦 32:00-33:05⏩
Jonathan shared a poignant story about storks, Ukraine's national animal, highlighting the broader ecological impact of the war. In the Kyiv region, a mother stork was tragically killed in a Russian attack while protecting her four chicks with her wings. The chicks were rescued by local residents, and the mother was buried. Jonathan expressed profound sadness, hoping the chicks would survive and thrive, and emphasised that beyond the human toll, the "staggering" ecological and environmental damage of the war "breaks his heart."

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Wrap up

🎦 33:05-33:10⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers and signs off, wishing them well with a "Toodlepips."

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