Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Is that what you'd expect if this was the best functioning second greatest armed forces in the world?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:00⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another update. He apologises for missing Jake Brough's roundtable discussion but announces his upcoming appearance on Silicon Curtain to discuss the attempted Trump assassination with philosopher Vlad Vexler.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures
🎦 01:00-03:00⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's reported Russian losses, noting:
- 1,200 personnel losses.
- 8 tank losses (consistent with the daily average).
- 15 armoured personnel vehicle (APV) losses (slightly below average).
- A significantly high number of artillery system losses (62, more than three times the average).
- 85 vehicle and fuel tank losses (an incredibly high number).
Andrew Perpetua's Loss Statistics
🎦 03:00-04:03⏩
Jonathan presents Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed loss data, showing a favourable 3:1 loss ratio for Ukraine, with 89 Russian losses to 32 Ukrainian losses.
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Analysis of Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 04:03-07:45⏩
Jonathan analyses the types of equipment lost by both sides, highlighting:
- Increased Western equipment presence on the loss lists, suggesting it's becoming the preferred choice for Ukrainian forces.
- A possible depletion of Russia's higher-quality artillery, as evidenced by the increased use of older D20 and D30 howitzers.
- The unsustainable nature of Russia's losses despite their vast stockpiles.
Losses in the Avdiivka Area (Prokrosk Region)
🎦 07:45-11:00⏩
Drawing on data from Nalcio, Jonathan highlights the substantial visually confirmed losses in the Avdiivka area (Prokrosk region):
- 1,449 Russian losses.
- 282 Ukrainian losses.
Jonathan discusses the desired Ukrainian loss ratio, acknowledging varying opinions but suggesting a 3:1 ratio as a useful benchmark. He notes that the 5:1 ratio in Avdiivka is highly favourable for Ukraine.
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Analysis of BMP-3 Infantry Fighting Vehicle Losses
🎦 11:00-16:24⏩
Jonathan delves into Perun's analysis of BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle losses:
- Depletion of Russia's BMP-3 stockpiles, forcing them to rely on older models.
- Despite apparent production, Russia struggles to keep pace with BMP-3 losses.
- Highlighting the use of golf carts by Russian forces, signifying equipment shortages.
- Emphasising the unsustainable nature of Russia's losses and the need to rely on stockpiles and foreign sources.
Reliability of Russian Loss Claims
🎦 16:24-23:14⏩
Jonathan addresses the frequent arguments from pro-Russian commentators questioning the absence of Ukrainian loss data in his analyses:
- Explains that Ukraine is understandably tight-lipped about its losses, making reliable data scarce.
- Contrasts this with the wildly inaccurate and impossible claims made by the Russian Ministry of Defence.
- Uses Perun's analysis to debunk the Russian claims, showing how they defy logic and available evidence.
Possible Ukrainian Air Defence System Loss in Odessa
🎦 23:14-24:49⏩
Jonathan discusses a potential Ukrainian air defence system loss in Odessa, referencing War Vehicle Tracker's analysis, and expressing concern about possible systematic Russian efforts to target these high-value assets. He also mentions other recent Ukrainian air defence losses, suggesting a worrying trend.
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Russian Personnel Losses and Opsec
🎦 24:49-27:40⏩
Jonathan highlights an anecdotal account from Samuel Bender regarding a Russian soldier's emotional message about heavy losses in the battle for Vyacheslavichansk. He notes the stark contrast between the human cost of the war and the dismissive attitude of Russian authorities. He also mentions a derailed train in the Voronezh region, further complicating Russian logistics.
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Overnight Drone Attacks and Air Defence
🎦 27:40-29:42⏩
Jonathan covers the previous night's drone attacks:
- Russian claims of downing 22 Ukrainian drones across various regions.
- Reports of impacts in occupied Crimea, including a possible strike on an S-300/400 missile division.
- Concerns about the depletion of Russian air defences, referencing Perun's analysis indicating the redeployment of air defence assets from other regions to the front line.
General Toplinsky's Order and Arson Attacks
🎦 29:42-38:06⏩
Jonathan discusses a range of developments:
- A disturbing report from Chris O'Wickey about a Russian general's order forbidding the recovery of dead soldiers' bodies in the Kherson region, raising concerns about the treatment of fallen troops and the potential for disease.
- A brief update on the energy situation in Ukraine, with improvements expected after July 20th.
- Widespread wildfires around Novorossiysk, prompting evacuations.
- A concerning report about Russians allegedly recruiting individuals on the dark web to carry out arson attacks in Ukrainian cities, highlighting the growing threat of arson as a weapon in this conflict.
- Jonathan's long-held concerns about the destructive potential of arson and its use in hybrid warfare.
Wrap Up
🎦 38:06-38:13⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching, encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video, and reminds them about his upcoming Silicon Curtain appearance.
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