Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitics News
Table of Contents 📖
"It's just insane. Anyway, there you go. Thanks for watching. Please like, subscribe and share. Sorry that this is before my normal first video, but it was all left over from yesterday and I'll speak to you very soon."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, explaining that this update focuses on geopolitical news related to the Ukraine War. Due to a busy schedule, he was unable to cover this yesterday. He plans to release an additional geopolitics video later today, citing the significant amount of information emerging from the NATO summit.
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Dmitry Medvedev's Stance and NATO's Accusation of China
🎦 00:20-01:15⏩
Jonathan highlights Dmitry Medvedev's (former Russian President and Prime Minister) statement calling for the eradication of Ukraine and NATO. He then points to NATO's identification of China as a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war in Ukraine, due to its support of the Russian military.
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Heritage Foundation Hack and Potential Implications
🎦 01:15-01:53⏩
Jonathan discusses the hacking of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative US think tank, with 2GB of data being compromised. He notes allegations of Chinese and potentially Russian involvement, speculating on the implications of a potential China-Russia-Hungary-Trump axis seeking to undermine US foreign and domestic policy. He believes the situation requires close monitoring.
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China-Hungary Relations and Orban's Meetings
🎦 01:53-03:14⏩
Jonathan revisits NATO's demand for China to halt its supply of weapons and technology to Russia, before turning to the increasingly close ties between China and Hungary. He details Orban's agreement to extradite individuals accused of crimes by the Chinese government and the presence of Chinese police patrolling Hungarian streets. Jonathan expresses concern over Orban's perceived allegiance to Russia, China and Iran, highlighting his recent meetings with Putin, Xi Jinping, Trump, and NATO officials. He plans to discuss Orban's meeting with Trump in more detail later, particularly regarding Orban's claims about Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine through appeasement.
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Trump's Potential Plans for Intel Sharing and Republican Support for Ukraine
🎦 03:14-04:32⏩
Jonathan brings up reports of Trump's potential plan to reduce intelligence sharing with Europe as part of a more isolationist approach. He expresses concern over this development, particularly in light of the alleged ties between Trump, Russia and China. However, he acknowledges some Republican figures, like Mitch McConnell, who support a stronger stance against Russia's actions in Ukraine. Jonathan also highlights contrasting viewpoints within the Republican party, with figures like Mike Johnson advocating for Ukraine's right to use US weapons as they see fit, while the MAGA faction appears to align more with Orban and Putin's stance.
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Clarence Thomas and Allegations of Undisclosed Gifts from Russia
🎦 04:32-05:01⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, who is facing scrutiny for accepting undeclared yacht trips to Russia and helicopter rides to Putin's hometown. These trips, while occurring some time ago, are now under investigation as potentially undisclosed gifts from Putin. The implications of this on the Supreme Court are unclear but raise concerns.
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China's Military Activities in the Philippines and Taiwan
🎦 05:01-05:33⏩
Jonathan covers Chinese military activity near the Philippines, including ship movements and increased naval presence, alongside the largest single-day violation of Taiwan's air defense zone. He reports 66 Chinese aircraft detected around Taiwan, with 56 crossing the defensive zone and coming within 33 nautical miles of the island, signalling escalating tensions in the region.
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Ukraine's Proposed Peace Summit and Russia's Rejection
🎦 05:33-06:11⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukraine's desire to hold a second peace summit with Russia before the US election. He suggests that Kyiv is concerned about a potential Trump victory and the impact this could have on military support for Ukraine. However, he notes that some US officials doubt the summit will happen and Russia has subsequently rejected the proposal, placing the onus on Moscow for the lack of progress.
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Zelensky's Meetings and Agreements at the NATO Summit
🎦 06:11-07:10⏩
Jonathan recounts Zelensky's "productive" meeting with Turkish President Erdogan at the NATO summit, indicating preparations for a conference in Turkey focused on food security and freedom of navigation as part of the peace summit's implementation. He also highlights EU's support for Zelensky's peace plan, emphasizing the importance of continued aid to prevent a Russian-controlled government in Kyiv. Jonathan also notes a bilateral security agreement signed between Zelensky and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, which he believes includes the transfer of Romanian Patriot missile systems to Ukraine. Finally, he mentions China's rejection of NATO's accusations of supporting Russia's war effort.
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China's Response to NATO and Hungary's Stance on an Anti-China Bloc
🎦 07:10-08:57⏩
Jonathan delves deeper into China's response to NATO's accusations, characterizing it as "provocative, blatantly false and slanderous," highlighting the escalating war of words between the two. He then analyses Hungary's refusal to support NATO becoming an anti-China bloc, attributing this to Orban's close ties with China and the significant Chinese investments in Hungary, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative. He provides the example of the railway from Serbia to Hungary being financed by China. Jonathan sees Hungary's stance as a direct challenge to the evolving focus of NATO, which is increasingly viewing China as a significant geopolitical threat alongside Russia.
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Hungary's Opposition to Ukraine Joining NATO and Concerns about US Senator Tommy Tuberville
🎦 08:57-11:38⏩
Jonathan discusses Hungary's Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó’s statement that Ukraine's admission to NATO would undermine the organization's unity. He then expresses strong disapproval of US Senator Tommy Tuberville, a Republican, whom he considers "clueless" on foreign policy, particularly regarding NATO. He criticizes Tuberville for perpetuating misinformation about NATO's purpose and funding, emphasizing that the US's historical support for NATO served its own strategic interests during the Cold War. He also highlights the role of European NATO allies in supporting the US after 9/11, with the invocation of Article 5, as evidence of NATO's mutual defence commitment.
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Speculation About Biden's Political Future and Potential Replacement by Harris
🎦 11:38-16:52⏩
Jonathan delves into US politics, discussing rumours of Chuck Schumer, a prominent Democrat, potentially withdrawing his support for Biden in the upcoming presidential election. He cites reports of donors expressing concern over Biden's performance. He also mentions speculation that former President Obama is behind the scenes, orchestrating a plan to replace Biden with another candidate, possibly Kamala Harris. This speculation comes amidst a series of public gaffes by Biden, including misidentifying Zelensky as "President Putin" and calling Kamala Harris "Trump" during the NATO summit. Jonathan expresses his belief that these gaffes, widely reported in the media, have significantly damaged Biden's image and chances of re-election. He believes that a change at the top of the Democratic ticket is becoming increasingly likely, particularly after the NATO summit.
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Analysis of Polls and the Potential Impact of Harris as the Democratic Nominee
🎦 16:52-22:30⏩
Jonathan analyzes recent polls suggesting a close race between Biden and Trump, despite Biden's recent gaffes and Trump's controversial statements and policies. He attributes this to the damage inflicted by the "Project 2025" initiative, a plan by conservative activists to drastically reshape the US government, which he believes is deterring some voters from supporting Trump. However, he also acknowledges that Biden's performance has been lacklustre and that a stronger candidate is needed to effectively challenge Trump. He suggests that Kamala Harris might be a more formidable opponent, citing her strong performance on issues like reproductive rights and her potential to hold Trump accountable during debates and press conferences. He believes that Harris could resonate better with undecided voters, particularly those disillusioned with Biden's gaffes.
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US Economic Performance and the Paradox of a Close Election Race
🎦 22:30-26:53⏩
Jonathan expresses his surprise at the closeness of the election race, given the current strength of the US economy under the Biden administration. He points to positive economic indicators like falling inflation, low unemployment rates, job growth, and a surging stock market as factors that should traditionally benefit an incumbent president. He criticizes Trump for spreading misinformation about the economy, particularly on issues like inflation and crime, and expresses his concern that these tactics are resonating with a segment of the electorate. He believes that Biden's campaign should focus on highlighting these positive economic indicators to counter Trump's narrative.
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Russia's Declining Oil Revenues and Opposition Leader's Visit to Kyiv
🎦 26:53-28:29⏩
Jonathan briefly reports on the decline in Russia's oil export revenues, attributing it to decreased exports. However, he notes that annual earnings have increased, suggesting that Russia is finding ways to mitigate the impact of sanctions. He then commends Péter Márki-Zay, the Hungarian opposition leader, for his visit to Kyiv and his delivery of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. He contrasts Márki-Zay's actions with those of Orban, criticizing Orban for his perceived appeasement of Putin. He hopes that Márki-Zay can gain momentum and bring about political change in Hungary that aligns more closely with the interests of Europe, Ukraine and the US.
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Russia's Refusal to Participate in Peace Talks and Zaluzhny's New Role
🎦 28:29-29:49⏩
Jonathan reiterates Russia's refusal to engage in further peace talks, citing comments from Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin dismissing Ukraine's peace formula as a "dead end" and an "ultimatum." He then reveals that Valerii Zaluzhny, the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, has assumed the position of Ukrainian ambassador to the United Kingdom. He speculates that Zaluzhny has been undergoing training and language lessons in preparation for this role. He quotes Zaluzhny's statement emphasizing his commitment to Ukraine's victory as his top priority.
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Confusion and Disappointment over Storm Shadow Missile Use
🎦 29:49-32:03⏩
Jonathan expresses frustration and disappointment over the confusion surrounding Ukraine's use of UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles. He recounts how initial statements, including Zelensky's comments, suggested that Ukraine would be able to use these missiles against targets within Russia. However, the UK's Ministry of Defence (MOD) has since clarified that Storm Shadows cannot be used to strike Russian territory. He speculates that this restriction stems from US pressure on the UK to limit the escalation of the conflict. He criticizes the continued limitations imposed on Ukraine's ability to defend itself, particularly the inability to target Russian air bases that launch attacks on Ukrainian soil.
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Wrap Up
🎦 32:03-32:16⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video. He apologizes for releasing the video earlier than his usual upload time, explaining that it was left over from the previous day.
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