Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"The UK needs to grow defence spending to 3% of GDP if the UK wants to bring RAF, Army and Royal Navy back to be an acceptable and capable strength."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:23⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to another ATP Geopolitics update, focusing on military aid for Ukraine in this second part of the March 31st, 2024 news. He apologises for the rush, blaming Easter Sunday commitments and imminent family reprimands.

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France Pledges Significant Military Aid to Ukraine

🎦 00:23-04:09⏩

Jonathan discusses France's commitment to sending replaced military equipment to Ukraine. This includes potentially over a thousand VAB armoured personnel carriers, 100 Leclerc tanks, and dozens of fighter jets as part of their €413 million replacement programme. He highlights France's proactive approach, citing the recent delivery of hundreds of armoured vehicles, a new batch of Aster 30 missiles (comparable to the Patriot system), and a commitment to prioritize future equipment deliveries to Ukraine. This includes speeding up the delivery of Mistral and Aster 30 missiles, with potential government requisitions from private stockpiles to expedite the process.

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France Considers Troop Deployment to Ukraine

🎦 04:09-05:55⏩

Jonathan reports on statements from Yaël Braun-Pivet, President of the French National Assembly, suggesting that France is considering deploying troops to Ukraine. While not confirming immediate action, Braun-Pivet echoes President Macron's stance that "nothing is ruled out." Jonathan highlights the significance of France maintaining strategic ambiguity regarding its support for Ukraine, a position endorsed by Finland's Foreign Minister who believes it keeps Russia guessing about the potential extent of Western involvement.

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Germany's Taurus Missile Production Halted

🎦 05:55-07:48⏩

Jonathan contrasts France's increased military support with Germany's announcement to halt Taurus missile production due to a lack of orders, a decision criticized by Jürgen Naudit. Jonathan notes that while Germany has been a significant contributor of military aid to Ukraine, second only to the US, it has not placed new orders for Taurus missiles since 2020. He emphasizes the need for these missiles, acknowledging the impact of misinformation surrounding the announcement while highlighting the underlying issue of insufficient orders from Germany.

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Germany Increases Ammunition Production for Gepard Systems

🎦 07:48-09:28⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukraine has started receiving more ammunition for their German-supplied Gepard anti-aircraft guns (SPAGs). This is crucial given Russia's intensified attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, including power plants. He notes that while the Gepard system is effective against drones, its range is limited when targeting rockets and missiles. Jonathan provides further context, explaining that Germany is fulfilling a pre-existing contract for 300,000 rounds of ammunition, with deliveries expected to continue until the end of 2025. He emphasizes the effectiveness and cost of these munitions.

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Germany's Bavaria Donates Motorcycles to Kyiv

🎦 09:28-09:49⏩

Jonathan highlights the donation of 11 BMW motorcycles by the Free State of Bavaria to the Kyiv patrol police. This gesture aims to enhance the police's responsiveness and mobility within the city.

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Ukraine Increases Domestic Weapons Production

🎦 09:49-10:42⏩

Jonathan discusses Ukraine's progress in domestic weapons production, reporting that over 80 different weapons and equipment types have been supplied to the Ukrainian armed forces since the start of 2024. Ammunition constitutes the largest portion of this domestically produced equipment, followed by drones, electronic warfare devices, and robotic complexes. Jonathan highlights the development of new drone types, including FPV kamikaze drones and short-range and long-range impact drones, emphasizing Ukraine's commitment to bolstering its defence capabilities.

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Challenger 2 Tanks: Deployment and Challenges

🎦 10:42-12:12⏩

Jonathan analyses the deployment of British Challenger 2 tanks with the Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade. He acknowledges the limited sightings of these tanks, attributing it to their small numbers (potentially 14 or a higher unconfirmed figure) and their unsuitability for the current operational environment in southern Ukraine, where minefields and fortifications have hindered their effectiveness. He notes the challenges posed by the tanks' weight, particularly during the muddy season, and potential issues with bridge load limits.

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Assessing British Military Power and NATO Contributions

🎦 12:12-17:25⏩

Jonathan delves into the historical context of British military power, comparing the UK's armed forces to other major European NATO armies. He cites Thomas Steiner's analysis, noting that during the Cold War, the British Army was the smallest among the UK, France, Germany, and Italy, but this was offset by the Royal Air Force's strength and the Royal Navy's significant size. However, he expresses concern over the decline of British military power, particularly since 2010, highlighting Steiner's argument that the UK needs to increase defence spending to 3% of GDP to restore the capabilities of its armed forces. He reflects on the shrinking size of the Royal Navy, drawing from personal experiences, and emphasizes the need for a robust military in light of current geopolitical threats, urging viewers to consider the state of military preparedness across Europe.

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Russia Announces Further Mobilization

🎦 17:25-18:50⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to Russia's announcement of mobilizing an additional 150,000 troops, a move anticipated after the recent elections. He suggests this number, while significant, is likely a calculated decision by Putin to avoid substantial public backlash.

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Analysis of Russia's Ongoing Mobilization Efforts

🎦 18:50-20:13⏩

Jonathan analyses Russia's ongoing mobilization efforts, questioning whether covert recruitment will continue alongside the announced 150,000. He cites British intelligence reports suggesting Russia is already recruiting around 30,000 personnel per month to sustain their operations in Ukraine.

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Impact of Russian Mobilization on the Conflict

🎦 20:13-21:53⏩

Jonathan analyses the potential impact of Russia's ongoing mobilization, acknowledging the challenges it poses for Ukraine. He questions whether these newly mobilized troops will have adequate training and equipment but acknowledges the effectiveness of Russia's attrition-based warfare. Jonathan emphasizes the need for Western nations to provide Ukraine with long-range munitions, allowing them to target Russian troop concentrations and logistical hubs effectively while minimizing Ukrainian casualties.

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Potential Impact on Russian Public Opinion

🎦 21:53-22:22⏩

Jonathan contemplates the impact of Russia's mobilization on its population, particularly the effect on public morale and support for the government as the conflict continues.

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Russia Forms Mobile Fire Groups to Protect Infrastructure

🎦 22:22-22:37⏩

Jonathan reports that Russia aims to establish mobile fire groups to counter attacks on its energy infrastructure, equipping them with thermal imaging, electronic warfare systems, and machine guns. However, he cites the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which doubts Russia's capacity to deploy these groups at the necessary scale.

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Russia Refurbishes AN-124 Cargo Plane

🎦 22:37-23:28⏩

Jonathan discusses Russia's efforts to refurbish and upgrade an AN-124 cargo plane that has been in storage for 24 years. He infers that this decision reflects a potential shortage of operational aircraft within the Russian Air Force. Additionally, he highlights the significance of Russia's need to mobilize significant numbers of troops, suggesting it indicates the effectiveness of Ukrainian attrition tactics.

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Russian UGV Deployment in Berdychiv Direction

🎦 23:28-23:53⏩

Jonathan briefly touches upon a claim, without confirming its validity, about Russia conducting experimental exercises with unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) in the Berdychiv direction. He notes the potential significance of this development while acknowledging the limited information available.

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Wrap Up

🎦 23:53-24:11⏩

Jonathan concludes the update, expressing gratitude for the viewers' continued support and mentioning his plans to release a geopolitical and mapping update later in the day. He gives a shout-out to "JR," who he mentions has already completed the mapping update.

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