Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
“What is going on in a world where we have these people with huge public influence, like Elon Musk, David Sachs, Mearsheimer, Russell Brand, Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, et cetera, et cetera. Why are these people cosying up to dictatorships? I mean, holy cow, it's absolutely despicable.”
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Ukraine War news update - the first part for 30th April 2024. He reminds viewers where to find the usual caveats in the description.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - Russian Losses (29th April 2024)
🎦 00:19-01:56⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian General Staff reported heavy losses for the Russians on 29th April 2024 with 1250 personnel, 22 tanks, 39 armoured personnel vehicles and 26 artillery systems lost. He notes that the high artillery losses may include towed mortars as well as self-propelled. Jonathan observes that whilst the Ukrainians appear to be on the backfoot in several locations, they are inflicting heavy losses on the Russians, questioning whether Russia's battlefield tactics are sustainable.
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Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses (last 10 days - to 29th April 2024)
🎦 01:56-05:31⏩
Jonathan highlights that Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses showed near parity between Ukrainian and Russian losses over the previous few days but explains this is likely to reflect activity that took place a couple of days ago. He reviews Ukrainian losses noting the loss of a 79K6 Pelican Radar, several Bradley IFVs and Italian Puma 6x6s. Jonathan comments that Italy and France tend to provide military aid quietly without announcing what is being sent, unlike Finland who announces the value of aid provided. He goes on to review Russian visually confirmed losses, remarking that this is likely the tip of the iceberg in terms of total losses, much of which is not yet public. Jonathan speculates that the 79k6 Pelican Radar system is likely to be high value and will likely offset a significant proportion of Russian losses when considering value.
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Drone Warfare
🎦 05:31-07:05⏩
Jonathan cites a Russian military blogger, noting that half of all Russian personnel losses are now as a result of Ukrainian drone strikes. He compares this to data earlier in the war which showed artillery was responsible for the vast majority of Russian personnel losses and sniper fire the next largest, highlighting how the situation has changed. He notes that both First Person View (FPV) and drone bombers present a significant challenge for the Russians. Jonathan contrasts the rigid nature and limitations of the Russian military industrial complex with Ukraine's agile, distributed network of small-scale and volunteer drone producers.
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Civilian Casualties
🎦 07:05-08:09⏩
Jonathan reports that the UN has reported a 20% rise in civilian casualties for March 2024 with 604 people impacted. He expresses his anger and frustration at the situation, noting that much of the world has become normalised to Russia's actions in Ukraine. Jonathan criticises Marjorie Taylor Greene for attempting to justify Russia's aggression.
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Russian Deserters
🎦 08:09-09:58⏩
Citing Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR), Jonathan reports that around 18,000 Russian troops from the Southern Military District (SMD) have deserted, with 12,000 of these from the 8th Combined Arms Army. He explains that many deserters do not surrender to the Ukrainians, choosing instead to flee to countries such as Georgia or return to Russia. Jonathan explains that this is because many Russian soldiers believe Russian propaganda that surrendering to the Ukrainians will lead to torture or death.
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Analysis of Visually Confirmed Losses - Vehicles & Hardware
🎦 09:58-12:16⏩
Jonathan reviews analysis of Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses by Twitter user, "Tendal". He notes that over the previous 10 days, the ratio of Ukrainian to Russian losses is 1:4.5 for destroyed vehicles and equipment; 1:2.2 for damaged and 1:4.1 for abandoned. When considering tanks, the ratios are even more striking: 1:13 for destroyed; 1:1.25 for damaged and 1:14 for abandoned. For Infantry Fighting Vehicles, Armoured Personnel Carriers and MRAPs the ratios are 1:4.5 for destroyed, 1:2.7 for damaged and 1:2.8 for abandoned. Jonathan considers these to be encouraging ratios for Ukraine.
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Fire at Moscow Warehouse
🎦 12:16-13:11⏩
Jonathan reports a fire at a warehouse near Moscow storing plastic pipes and polyethylene covering an area of 2000 square meters. He speculates as to the cause, wondering if it was carelessness, arson, sabotage or something else entirely.
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Russian Missile Strike on Odessa
🎦 13:11-18:02⏩
Jonathan expresses his anger at Russia's missile strike on Odessa which took place in broad daylight, hitting civilian areas including a law academy (known as the Harry Potter Hotel) and promenade. Early reports suggested at least 4 civilians had been killed and 28 injured, including 2 children. The attack involved a Russian Iskander missile with cluster munitions. Jonathan questions the logic of using such a weapon against civilian targets and highlights the moral bankruptcy of Russia's military campaign. He cites analysis by Twitter user "John Ridge" who suggested the damage was consistent with the remnants of an intercepted missile rather than a direct hit. Jonathan goes on to show footage of cluster munitions clearly impacting the promenade in Odessa, confirming an Iskander missile was used, contradicting John Ridge's earlier assessment. Citing Anton Geraschenko, Jonathan reports that Dmitry Plotinchuk, Head of Strategic Communications for the Southern Ukrainian Defence forces had stated that early assessments pointed towards an Iskander missile with cluster munitions being used.
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Zaporizhzhia Oblast Bombarded
🎦 18:02-18:27⏩
Jonathan reports that the governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast had announced that the free areas of the region had come under attack 254 times with 19 houses damaged or destroyed. He reminds viewers that although there may not be widespread missile attacks on Ukraine, bombardment with artillery continues on a daily basis.
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UN Confirms Russia Used North Korean Missiles
🎦 18:27-19:17⏩
Jonathan reports that the UN has confirmed that Russia used North Korea's Hwasong-11 Missile to attack Kharkiv on 2nd January 2024. He questions what ramifications there will be for Russia given that it sits on the UN Security council and whether North Korea will face any consequences for violating sanctions.
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Overnight Explosions Rock Crimea
🎦 19:17-21:20⏩
Jonathan reports a series of explosions across Crimea. Explosions were reported near Jankoy (potentially another attack on the airfield), as well as in Fradyska, Helichesk (speculation that the bridges may have been hit again) and Simferopol. The Kerch Straight bridge was also closed, something which happens whenever there are threats to Crimea. A large explosion was also reported in Mariupol. Ukrainian sources suggest that around a dozen Ukrainian "Atakam" missiles were used in a mass strike against Russian air defence assets in an attempt to reduce Russia's ability to conduct air operations over Crimea.
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Crimean Bridge - Update
🎦 21:20-22:18⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia appears to be hesitant about allowing trains carrying fuel across the Crimean Bridge, suggesting that the previous attack continues to have an impact. He goes on to note that Russia is having to transport goods across the Kerch Strait by ferry or by alternative routes as a result.
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Gloomy Prognosis: Ukraine's "Darkest Hour" Yet To Come?
🎦 22:18-26:18⏩
Jonathan shares analysis by open source intelligence (OSINT) expert Conrad Muzica who has painted a bleak picture of the situation in Ukraine. Muzica argues that Ukraine is facing a critical shortage of ammunition, manpower and fortifications. He cites reports that some Ukrainian artillery units have had to reduce their rate of fire by between 70-90% compared to the previous summer. Whilst recent military aid from the US will help to reduce the disparity in resources between Russia and Ukraine, Muzica argues it will not be enough to change the course of the war, merely delay it, arguing that what is needed is a long-term plan. Muzica goes on to highlight the lack of fortified defensive lines in the Donbas region, suggesting that whilst Ukrainian forces are building up resistance points, these are vulnerable to flanking manoeuvres. He believes that Ukraine faces a critical few months ahead as it attempts to train and equip new recruits. If Russia is able to make a breakthrough during this period, he believes the situation could result in a localised collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces similar to what happened to Russia during the Kharkiv offensive. Muzica concludes that Russia's numerical superiority is growing and with it the frequency of attacks. He warns that, "Ukraine has not survived the darkest hour. It is yet to begin". Jonathan reflects on this assessment, noting that the next few months are likely to be very difficult.
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Russia Targeting Ukraine's Energy Infrastructure
🎦 26:18-27:57⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has destroyed one of the six reservoirs on the Dnieper River, damaged another and attempted to attack others. He sees this as part of a deliberate strategy to cripple Ukraine's energy infrastructure and turn Ukraine into a failed state. He draws parallels with the analysis of Anders Puck-Nielsen (interview with Jonathan Fink, Silicon Curtain) who argued that if Russia can't control Ukraine, it will try to turn it into a failed state. Jonathan expresses his concern at the success Russia is having in this endeavour.
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Yohara Matasek: Europe Must Intervene
🎦 27:57-29:55⏩
Jonathan highlights an article by former US Air Force Pilot and academic, Yohara Matasek, published in French newspaper, l'Express in which he argues that Europe needs to formally intervene in Ukraine to halt Russian imperialism. Jonathan agrees with this analysis, noting that it echoes calls made by French President Emmanuel Macron, as well as voices in the UK and the Baltic States. Jonathan reiterates his belief that the West is already engaged in a Third World War and that we need to treat it as such. He expresses his frustration that much of the West is failing to recognise the gravity of the situation. Jonathan believes the inaction by the West is partly responsible for the perilous situation Ukraine finds itself in.
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Jonathan's Rant: The Rise of Pro-Kremlin Voices in the West
🎦 29:55-32:10⏩
Jonathan embarks on a rant, condemning what he sees as dangerous and influential pro-Kremlin voices in the West such as Elon Musk, David Sachs, John Mearsheimer, Russell Brand, Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene for their naive and misguided attempts to appease Russia, describing it as "despicable". He singles out Russell Brand for particular criticism, branding him a "conspiracy theory nut" for his decision to interview disgraced former Colonel Douglas MacGregor (who has been stripped of his title). He wonders whether Brand is simply "grifting" and questions Tucker Carlson's motives in interviewing Aleksandr Dugin, the ultra-nationalist Russian philosopher who is seen as the ideological architect of Putin's imperial ambitions.
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Ukrainian Small Businesses Show Signs of Recovery
🎦 32:10-32:30⏩
On a more positive note, Jonathan reports that small businesses in Ukraine are showing signs of recovery. He highlights data showing that the number of newly registered businesses in 2023 exceeded those registered in 2021. Most of these new businesses were registered in Kyiv followed by the Dnipropetrovsk region.
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Douglas MacGregor's Failed Predictions
🎦 32:30-34:41⏩
Jonathan returns to the subject of Douglas MacGregor and his pronouncements, describing his pronouncements as "non-stop idiocy". He notes how MacGregor has consistently and incorrectly predicted the imminent collapse of Ukraine and NATO, pointing out that his predictions have been wrong for two years. He likens MacGregor to a losing racehorse upon whom he has bet many times, only to see it lose.
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Wrap up
🎦 34:41-34:43⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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