Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
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Table of Contents 📖
"It's this game of chess where every country in the world appears to be taking sides, and we are getting to this binary uh position I think in in world geopolitics now"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:16⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War News Update, specifically part three for the 31st of July 2024, focusing on military aid and geopolitical news.
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US Aid to Ukraine
🎦 00:17-02:21⏩
- The US will provide $7.85 billion in aid to Ukraine, with the initial installment arriving soon.
- This includes $500 million for energy infrastructure repairs following Russian attacks, plus an additional $324 million for urgent energy needs.
- Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal confirms the $7.85 billion in budget support, with $3.9 billion due imminently.
- Discussions also covered the G7's plan to give Ukraine $50 billion from frozen Russian assets starting in 2025.
- Ukraine aims to use these funds flexibly, including for military purposes. The G7 is set to finalize this loan package, backed by $300 billion in seized Russian assets, by October 2024.
- This aid is crucial for Ukraine's survival as a nation, which is essential for maintaining a viable military force against Russia.
Ukraine's Air Defence Systems
🎦 02:21-03:24⏩
- Zelensky announces Ukraine will receive more air defense systems in August, September, and October.
- Protecting industrial and economic centers is a priority, but Jonathan believes offensive air defense systems are also needed near the front lines to counter Russian glide bombs.
- Zelensky acknowledges the NATO summit's decision to provide five Patriot systems but doesn't disclose specific numbers.
- The potential for Ukraine to receive Israeli air defense systems is also mentioned.
Ukraine Receives F-16 Fighter Jets
🎦 03:24-05:47⏩
- Ukraine has received its first F-16 fighter jets. While not expected to be a large number in 2024 (potentially around 10), a gradual introduction is seen as a wise strategy to avoid them becoming targets for Russian missiles.
- Social media footage shows an F-16 over Lviv, and there are rumors of others operating near Odessa, flying from Romania.
- These F-16s will be equipped with American weaponry, excluding cruise missiles, and are expected to be used for air defense, shooting down Russian cruise missiles, and potentially for offensive operations using guided bombs.
- The specific roles they will play are yet to be fully determined.
Ukraine's Drone Production Capacity
🎦 05:47-08:47⏩
- Ukraine claims it can produce over three million drones annually, significantly exceeding previous estimates of one million.
- While Ukraine appears to have the production capacity, funding is a limiting factor.
- Labour shortages, a result of men being conscripted and women and children fleeing as refugees, are also impacting production capabilities across various industries, leading to wage inflation.
- Despite these challenges, Ukraine demonstrates an impressive ability to innovate and stay ahead of Russia in drone technology.
- Footage shows a Ukrainian drone carrying two TM62 anti-tank mines and destroying a warehouse, highlighting the increasing payload capacity of their drones.
Raids in Russia & Migrant Conscription
🎦 08:47-09:32⏩
- Raids continue across Russia, with reports of police targeting migrants, particularly those recently granted Russian passports, for conscription into the military.
- These raids extend to locations like Wildberries warehouses (similar to Amazon), likely in search of men to send to the front lines.
- This suggests growing desperation within Russia to bolster their forces in Ukraine.
Venezuela's Election & International Reactions
🎦 09:32-15:40⏩
- Venezuela's recent election, widely seen as corrupt, saw Maduro declared the winner, sparking protests and violence.
- Putin congratulates Maduro, referring to him as a "welcome guest" and highlighting their "strategic partnership."
- Peskov, echoing Putin's sentiment, calls on the opposition to accept defeat and labels the protests as attempts to destabilize the situation, cautioning against foreign interference.
- This situation in Venezuela, a key Russian ally in the Western Hemisphere, benefits Russia by diverting international attention and resources.
- Gerashchenko argues that Russia's actions in Ukraine have eroded international law and emboldened authoritarian leaders.
- The EU, except for Hungary, refuses to recognize the election results, demanding transparency and verification.
- The Carter Center, an election observer, deems the election undemocratic and lacking integrity. The White House condemns any repression of protesters or the opposition.
- Serbia's president congratulating Maduro raises questions about Serbia's allegiance, despite claims of aligning with the West.
- Hungary, known for its pro-Russia stance, vetoes an EU statement condemning the election, further solidifying Russia's influence.
Russian Propagandists and Elon Musk
🎦 15:40-18:27⏩
- Interestingly, Russian propagandists are now criticizing Elon Musk, accusing him of being behind the opposition protests in Venezuela because of his interest in securing bauxite deposits for Tesla.
- Jonathan speculates that Musk likely supports leaders who offer him business advantages, such as access to raw materials, deregulation, or the removal of obstacles like the SEC investigation into his Twitter acquisition.
- This explains Musk's support for figures like Trump and his shifting stance on Russia and China.
- Jonathan suggests Musk may be taking a stand against Maduro in Venezuela due to potential benefits from an open market there.
- He concludes that Musk's actions are likely driven by economic interests rather than a commitment to democracy.
Matt Gaetz on Venezuela's Election
🎦 18:27-19:04⏩
- Jonathan highlights the irony of Matt Gaetz, a staunch Trump supporter, criticizing Maduro for declaring victory despite losing the election, drawing a parallel to Trump's actions following the 2020 US election.
German Citizen Pardoned in Belarus
🎦 19:04-19:46⏩
- Jonathan discusses the case of Rico Krieger, a German citizen sentenced to death in Belarus but then pardoned. He speculates that a prisoner exchange deal was likely struck between Germany and Belarus (or Russia).
Potential Prisoner Exchange with Russia
🎦 19:47-20:46⏩
- The Moscow Times reports (though unconfirmed) that 20-30 people might be released from Russian prisons, potentially including Evan Gershkovich (Wall Street Journal journalist) and Vladimir Kara-Murza (UK-Russia dual citizen and opposition activist).
- This potential exchange of political prisoners would be significant news.
Finland to Benefit from US-China Tensions?
🎦 20:46-22:55⏩
- A Finnish firm sees an opportunity in Biden's decision to replace Chinese-made port cranes in the US.
- Jonathan discusses the broader context of the US and EU's economic strategies against Russia and China, highlighting the complexities of this economic warfare.
- He notes previous concerns about Chinese-made cranes potentially being used for espionage. Biden's decision, while potentially appeasing China hawks, could also be a strategic move in this economic conflict.
US Sanctions Official Joins Harris Campaign
🎦 22:55-23:26⏩
- Brian Nelson, a key figure in imposing sanctions on Russia, will join Kamala Harris's presidential campaign team, according to Axios.
Trump's Claims About His Presidency
🎦 23:26-26:05⏩
- Trump, in an all-caps rant, claims that no invasions occurred during his presidency and boasts about his handling of Afghanistan, inflation, and relations with Iran and China.
- Jonathan debunks these claims, pointing out inconsistencies and providing counter-examples.
- He highlights the Doha Agreement (negotiated under Trump) as the reason for Biden's Afghanistan withdrawal.
- He challenges Trump's claims of peace by pointing to increased drone strikes and his weak stance against dictators.
Talaria's Work on NATO Expansion
🎦 26:05-26:45⏩
- Jonathan praises Talaria (VLP on Twitter) for her insightful Substack, "Knowledge is Power," and recommends her article debunking the Russian propaganda myth blaming NATO expansion for the war in Ukraine.
Wrap up
🎦 26:45-26:53⏩
- Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support and signs off.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I am unclear on the meaning of "get rinsed" as used by Jonathan. Could you please clarify?
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