Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If you give them normal weapons, it's unknown who they will shoot more - the Ukrainians, the army or each other".
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:23⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another video and mentions that this is the first part of his daily Ukraine war update for the 3rd of September 2024. He's running a little late as it's back to school for his children but is now on track.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report Russian Losses
🎦 00:23-03:07⏩
Jonathan reports the latest figures released by the Ukrainian General Staff for the previous day (02/09/2024) noting that the standard caveats for this data apply and can be found in the video description. Overall, he believes the figures are positive, noting the particularly high losses for Russian personnel - 1360. He explains that higher losses for tanks (18), armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs) (35) as reported by the Ukrainian General Staff often suggests that Russia is on the offensive. The usual daily average is 4 or 5 tanks lost and 17-18 AFVs, so double the usual number of losses is a good thing for the Ukrainians. The high losses may reflect Ukrainian counterattacks on the southern Donbas front and near Vuhledar (Donetsk Oblast) where Russia is attacking. He suspects that the relative success of the Ukrainians may be due to the diversion of Russian resources to the Kupiansk-Lyman front (Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts). Losses for artillery systems (18) were around average, although lower than the daily average of 40-50 reported over previous weeks.
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Oryx Reports Record Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 03:07-11:53⏩
Jonathan notes that Oryx, the independent open-source intelligence website that tracks military equipment losses, reported that Russian equipment losses for the 1st of September 2024 were double the previous record high. He analyses the data compiled by Oryx. In terms of equipment visually confirmed as destroyed, damaged, captured or abandoned, he estimates that Russia lost 5-7 times more equipment than the Ukrainians. Of interest in the Ukrainian equipment losses was a P-18 Malachite radar system - likely taken out by a Russian Lancet loitering munition - although he speculates that it could have been a decoy. He also notes the destruction of a US-supplied M577 command and control vehicle, the loss of an Mi-8 helicopter (possibly the one reported lost in Kamchatka), damage to several US-supplied Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs) and the destruction of a large number of older Soviet-era tanks and AFVs. The sheer volume of Russian equipment losses was huge and, as Jonathan observes, probably represents a compilation of losses over several days or even weeks. He speculates that individual units are probably sending in montages of destroyed equipment rather than all of the losses occurring within a 24-hour period. Nevertheless, he concludes that the scale of the losses is good news for the Ukrainians.
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Oryx Reports Increase in Daily Russian Personnel Losses
🎦 11:53-14:11⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers that Oryx is also tracking the visually-confirmed deaths of Russian soldiers and while this may seem a little "macabre" it is nevertheless a useful way to measure trends and highlight the disparity between what is reported on social media and by the Ukrainian General Staff. He reports that Oryx has visual confirmation of the deaths of 98 Russian soldiers for the 1st of September - which gives an average of 75-77 deaths per day over the past 13 days. This represents a significant increase on the previous average of 65 deaths per day. He cautions that the figures from the Ukrainian General Staff are always likely to be much higher as they include deaths resulting from strikes on buildings such as headquarters, ammunition depots and barracks, where the actual number of casualties is unknown.
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Ukraine Deploys New Tactic to Clear Enemy Trenches
🎦 14:11-16:27⏩
Jonathan notes a disturbing trend of using thermite as an offensive weapon. While not illegal, he believes it is a particularly horrific way to die and is damaging from an environmental perspective. He shows footage of a Ukrainian drone dropping a canister of thermite along a tree line - presumably to flush out Russian soldiers and destroy equipment. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) analysts are reporting that this is a new tactic being deployed by the Ukrainian armed forces (AFU). Jonathan explains how thermite works - it's an incendiary material made from metal powder and metal oxide which, when ignited, creates a self-sustaining exothermic reaction and produces temperatures of up to 2500 degrees Celsius.
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Russian Military and Soldiers Report Contrasting Drone Warfare Assessments
🎦 16:27-20:11⏩
Jonathan reports that there appear to be contradictory reports coming out of Russia in relation to the effectiveness of Russian and Ukrainian drone warfare. On the one hand, Russian state media is reporting that Russia has a "huge advantage" when it comes to drone warfare and dismisses Ukrainian drones as "homemade" and of "low quality". In contrast, Russian soldiers fighting on the front line are reporting that Ukrainian forces are far more superior, particularly when it comes to the deployment of first-person view (FPV) drones and commercially available DJI Mavic drones. The soldiers report that Ukrainian forces have up to double the number of these drones in the air compared with the Russian military and are able to launch twice as many, which means they are inflicting double the amount of damage. The soldiers want more drones as they claim that DJI Mavic and FPV drones are "consumables" and need to be replaced regularly. Jonathan concludes that the reports from the soldiers are far more believable than the propaganda being peddled by Russian state media. He includes a comment from a YouTube user who was similarly sceptical of the claims being made by the Russian reporter and points to other sources including Yevgeny Fedorov, a member of the Russian State Duma (parliament) who is reported to have said that the situation for Russian forces in Kursk Oblast is far worse than has been reported.
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Ukrainian FPV Drone Destroys Russian Orlan-10 Reconnaissance Drone
🎦 20:11-22:01⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Ukrainian FPV drone destroying a Russian Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone. He observes that there is increasing evidence that the Ukrainians have become adept at deploying FPV drones in their ongoing battle with Russian reconnaissance drones. He describes the footage, explaining that the speed of the FPV drone compared with the Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone is "incredible" and how the FPV drone matches the speed of the Orlan-10 while lining itself up for the kill. Jonathan comments that he finds it interesting that at the start of the war (February 2022) there was a lot of discussion about how effective the Russian military had been in deploying Orlan-10 and Orlan-30 drones. The Orlan-10 is a relatively cheap reconnaissance drone, yet it proved incredibly effective for the Russians - particularly in terms of their ability to direct artillery fire and missiles. At the time, there were many complaints that the Ukrainians had lost a lot of valuable equipment as a result. The Ukrainians appear to have found a solution - sending cheap and cheerful FPV drones to hunt down and destroy the more expensive Russian reconnaissance drones.
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Ukrainian Partisans Target Russian Military Logistics
🎦 22:01-23:04⏩
Jonathan reports incidents of sabotage by Ukrainian partisans. In the occupied city of Mariupol (Donetsk Oblast), a transformer on a railway line used to transport Russian military equipment has been destroyed and in the Andronovka district of Moscow a locomotive repair plant is on fire. He adds that Russian railway networks are already under considerable pressure - from Ukrainian strikes and sabotage, but also the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast - which has likely provided the Ukrainians with valuable intelligence about the Russian rail network.
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Russian Propaganda Attempts to Exaggerate Electronic Warfare Capabilities Backfire
🎦 23:07-24:25⏩
Jonathan describes an example of how the open-source intelligence community is able to expose Russian propaganda. The Russian Ministry of Defence released footage claiming that one of its Mi-28NM electronic warfare helicopters was operating in Kursk Oblast. However, someone noticed reflections on the helicopter's camera and was able to identify the location as being Kramatorsk (Donetsk Oblast) - not Kursk. Jonathan describes this as "absolutely unreal" and praises the "incredible" work of the open-source intelligence community.
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Russia Launches Shahed-136 Drones from Belarus for First Time
🎦 24:25-26:11⏩
Jonathan reports that overnight Russia launched 35 Iranian-supplied Shahed-136 loitering munitions into Ukraine - 27 were shot down and 6 crashed - likely as a result of electronic warfare. He expresses concern that one Shahed-136 drone was shot down over Belarus - the first time Russia has launched drones from Belarusian territory since the start of the war in February 2022. He sees this as a significant and worrying development, comparing it with Ukraine launching missiles at Russia from NATO territory. He also criticises the US policy of "de-escalation management", noting with dismay that Ukraine does not have permission to strike Russian troops or bases in Belarus.
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Russia Targets Ukrainian Railway Infrastructure
🎦 26:11-27:02⏩
Jonathan reports that overnight Russia attacked railway infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk region of south-east Ukraine. It is unclear whether there were any casualties. He questions why Russia has not targeted Ukrainian critical infrastructure in a more systematic manner, instead, choosing to bomb civilian infrastructure. He concludes that Russia has not fought this war very effectively, but acknowledges that "who is he to judge?".
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Russia Bombs Hotel in Zaporizhzhia
🎦 27:02-27:38⏩
In another attack on civilian infrastructure, Jonathan reports that Russia has bombed a hotel in the city of Zaporizhzhia in south-east Ukraine. A 38-year-old woman and her 8-year-old son were killed. Her 12-year-old daughter was seriously injured and is in intensive care. Jonathan is clearly angered by these continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians.
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Ukraine Retaliates with Drone Attack on Russian Airbase
🎦 27:38-28:44⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian military airbase in the Tver region, north of Moscow, is reported to have been attacked by a Ukrainian drone. He describes this as "incredibly significant", if true. Footage on Russian Telegram channels show Russian air defence systems, including what appear to be interceptor missiles, targeting the drones. However, there is no confirmation of what happened, what was damaged or if the attack was successful.
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Update on Previous Russian and Ukrainian Strikes - Moscow Oil Refinery
🎦 28:44-29:03⏩
Jonathan provides an update on previous strikes - starting with the Gazprom Neft Moscow oil refinery. He reports that the refinery has been forced to suspend operations after a fire on Sunday (01/09/2024).
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Update on Previous Russian and Ukrainian Strikes - Konakovo Power Station
🎦 29:08-30:48⏩
Jonathan refers to the Ukrainian drone strike on the Konakovo power station - one of the largest power plants in Russia - located in the Tver region. This attack was significant as it demonstrated the increased capability of the Ukrainian military to strike deep inside Russian territory. He reads a comment from a Russian commentator who believes the strike demonstrates the "new increased capabilities" of the Ukrainian armed forces and that Russia is now facing a "new level of problems". The commentator notes that 100 drones would be enough to "knock it all out for months".
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Update on Previous Russian and Ukrainian Strikes - Prolotarsk Oil Depot
🎦 30:48-31:27⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the aftermath of the Ukrainian attack on the Prolotarsk oil depot in the Krasnodar region of southern Russia. Satellite images show the scale of the fire which burned for 16 days. Jonathan observes that the attack caused significant damage to the depot - approximately 40 fuel storage tanks were destroyed. He believes the attack on Prolotarsk was probably the most damaging of the war so far in terms of its impact on Russian fuel storage capacity.
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Update on Previous Russian and Ukrainian Strikes - Moscow Oil Refinery
🎦 31:27-31:56⏩
Jonathan returns to the drone attack on the Moscow oil refinery, reporting that it will take 5-6 days to repair the damage.
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Update on Previous Russian and Ukrainian Strikes - Kinzhal Missile
🎦 31:56-32:28⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a large unexploded warhead and the crater it created when it impacted. He explains that the warhead is from a Russian Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missile that was successfully neutralised by Ukrainian air defences. He notes that a Kinzhal missile costs around $10 million.
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Update on Previous Russian and Ukrainian Strikes - Ukrainian Palyanytsya Loitering Munition
🎦 32:28-33:12⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has allegedly launched its new long-range Palyanytsya loitering munition against a military target in occupied Crimea. The Ukrainians are reporting that the strike was successful.
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Iran to Supply Ballistic Missiles to Russia
🎦 33:12-34:04⏩
Jonathan expresses concern at reports that Iran is about to ship ballistic missiles to Russia. He notes, with frustration, that while Ukraine is prohibited from striking Russian military targets in Russia, it will be at increased risk from Russian attacks, with the added complication of North Korean and Iranian missiles being added to the equation.
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Russian Territorial Defence Forces in Kursk Oblast - "Complete Chaos"
🎦 34:04-38:16⏩
Jonathan shares an update from a Russian military blogger (milblogger) about the chaotic state of the Russian Territorial Defence Forces in Kursk Oblast, noting that this is an insight into the psyche of at least some of the Russian forces. The milblogger reports that following rumours of a Ukrainian breakthrough, there were several incidents of Russian troops firing on their own forces - so-called "friendly fire". He quotes a Russian serviceman who described the behaviour of the Kursk Territorial Defence Forces as "complete chaos". He describes the men as "morally unprepared, unstable people" who are in a "constant state of paralyzing panic" and are more likely to harm each other or themselves than any Ukrainians. He describes how the Territorial Defence Forces are "imagining Ukrainians everywhere" and are suspicious of each other. He describes an atmosphere of "hysteria, unprofessionalism and chaotic runs" and quotes another Russian soldier who said, "If you give them normal weapons, it's unknown who they will shoot more - the Ukrainians, the army or each other". Jonathan observes that if the accounts are accurate, there appear to be serious question marks about the morale, competency and training of the Russian Territorial Defence Forces in Kursk.
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Ukrainian Incursions in Kursk Oblast Impacting Russian Gas Supplies to Europe
🎦 38:16-39:25⏩
Jonathan reports that data from Reuters shows that Russian gas supplies to Europe fell in August 2024 compared with August 2023. This is significant as it suggests that Ukrainian military activity in Kursk Oblast may be disrupting Russian gas exports.
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Ukrainian Forces Show Compassion to Russian Civilians in Kursk Oblast
🎦 39:25-40:06⏩
Jonathan shares an anecdote from a Russian woman living in the village of Lebedevka in Kursk Oblast. The woman describes how the Ukrainians had been bringing food and medicines into the village and had even brought Coca-Cola. She tried to pay them in Russian Roubles and even Ukrainian Hryvnia but they refused to take her money. Jonathan believes this is evidence that the Ukrainian forces are conducting "hearts and minds" operations in Kursk and hopes that it's because "they are just better human beings".
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Ukrainian Forces Make Larger Territorial Gains than Russian Forces
🎦 40:06-40:47⏩
Jonathan refers to data released by military analyst War Mapper, which shows that while Russian forces seized an area of approximately 350 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory in August, Ukrainian forces captured 770 square kilometres of Russian territory. He uses this to illustrate how the focus on Russian advances in the Donbas region often obscures the bigger picture of Ukrainian gains elsewhere.
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Ukrainian POW Describes Torture and Abuse in Russian Captivity
🎦 40:47-43:42⏩
Jonathan shares a harrowing account from a released Ukrainian Prisoner of War (POW) who spent 22 months in Russian captivity. The POW describes how he and his fellow Ukrainian soldiers were subjected to horrific physical and mental torture, including beatings, electric shocks, sleep deprivation, starvation and sexual abuse. He also describes how he lost 60 kilograms in weight and suffered multiple injuries.
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Ukraine Opens First Underground Military Hospital
🎦 43:42-44:05⏩
In more positive news, Jonathan reports that Ukraine has opened its first underground military hospital. Built to NATO standards, the hospital is capable of treating up to 100 wounded soldiers.
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Another Russian General Arrested for Corruption
🎦 44:05-46:40⏩
Jonathan reports on the arrest of yet another Russian general, this time for corruption. He explains that this is part of a much wider investigation into a $2 billion fraud involving the procurement of substandard military equipment - including bulletproof vests. Jonathan believes that the timing of these arrests is politically motivated, noting that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) probably has enough "dirt" on everyone in the Russian Ministry of Defence to be able to "get rid" of people at a time of their choosing.
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Wrap Up
🎦 46:40-46:51⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, reminding them to like, subscribe and share the video. He apologises for the length of this particular video, explaining that the amount of data released by Oryx meant there was a lot to get through.
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