Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
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"The Ukrainians are going to be the trainers of other armies around the world. They will be the most experienced operators of all sorts of stuff and have the greatest, most recent combat experience."
Hello Team!
Jonathan wishes everyone a Happy New Year. He shares a video of London's New Year's fireworks display which featured the colours of the Ukrainian flag and a message of support for Ukraine from the Mayor of London. Jonathan also shows a video of Ukrainians singing their national anthem on balconies during an air raid. He notes the UK could do better in terms of accepting Ukrainian refugees.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian Losses and Attacks
According to Ukrainian figures, Russia suffered the loss of 760 troops, 2 tanks, 9 APCs, 5 artillery systems, 46 drones, 12 cruise missiles and other equipment in the past day. There were several waves of Russian cruise missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, with 45 drones launched, of which nearly 100% were shot down. 32 drones were downed around Kyiv. The attacks required intense use of expensive missiles by Ukrainian air defences. Occupied Donetsk also came under heavy Ukrainian artillery fire.
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Frontline Updates
- Russia is likely running low on artillery ammunition, going from using 60,000 shells per day to 19-20,000. They have also taken ammunition from Belarusian warehouses. This will constrain their ability to conduct offensive operations.
- There was little change on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna front.
- Heavy fighting continues around Bakhmut with the Russians making incremental gains at great cost to both sides. Geolocated footage shows Russians advancing west of Bakhmut.
- North of Avdiivka the front remains largely static with only minor territorial changes over the past month.
- In Marinka, the landscape is completely devastated. The Russians made some advances in the town over the last month.
- Reports that Russians captured Dorozhnyanka near Vuhledar appear to be exaggerated. The settlement was still being shelled by Russians as of Dec 31 according to Ukraine.
Crimea
There were explosions at the Dzhankoi airbase in Crimea, which is out of HIMARS range. It's unclear what weapon was used in the attack. Jonathan speculates Ukraine may be developing or acquiring longer-range missile systems.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks listeners for their support and hopes for a better year ahead. He expresses hope the war will end soon with a Ukrainian victory but acknowledges this is far from certain. Russia's endgame and potential off-ramps remain unclear. Factors like Putin's health, the possibility of a coup, and Russia's willingness to continue pouring resources into a losing war will determine how and when the conflict may end.
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