Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News, Transnistria, Turnbull vs Trump
Table of Contents 📖
"Putin's main goal is to restore the Russian state to its 1991 borders...He has gone from authoritarianism to totalitarianism and is set for a longstanding war and is unlikely to stop."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:45⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War News update - the 3rd part for 06/03/2024, acknowledging that he's posting more frequently given the volume of news. He reminds viewers that he forgot to include an image from his last video in which Russian Prime Minister Medvedev suggested that Russia has no borders whilst standing in front of a map that showed Russia having annexed most of Ukraine.
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Medvedev's comments and Russia's Imperialism
🎦 01:45-05:33⏩
Jonathan expresses his concern over these comments, suggesting that Russia's plan is to destroy and annex Ukraine through occupation and collaborationism. Jonathan highlights how this is further evidenced by the rhetoric being spread by Russian propagandists and politicians on Russian state TV - citing examples of discussions about genocide and murdering children. Jonathan expresses his concern that this rhetoric isn't being taken seriously enough in the West. He recounts a conversation he had with a Facebook follower, who seemed to be regurgitating Russian talking points despite his previous alignment with Jonathan's views, highlighting that he's noticed a degree of pushback recently. Jonathan asserts that many people fail to grasp the severity of the situation, likening it to World War III.
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Russia's goals for the war
🎦 05:33-07:14⏩
Jonathan notes that Putin's objective is to restore Russia to its 1991 borders, a sentiment shared by a significant portion of the Russian population who view former USSR territories as inherently Russian. He argues that Russians are prepared to endure economic hardship and substantial loss of life to achieve these goals. Jonathan believes that this war effectively guarantees Putin's continued rule, transitioning his regime from authoritarianism to totalitarianism. He observes that this war is likely to be protracted, as Putin, potentially driven by health issues such as cancer, feels he has nothing to lose. He suggests this might explain Putin's increasingly aggressive and imperialistic stance, given that Putin is unlikely to enjoy the spoils of his corrupt gains.
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Countering Russia - Western Hesitancy
🎦 07:14-08:09⏩
Jonathan questions how the West should counter Russia, highlighting Ukraine's resilience and the need for continued, unwavering support. He argues that demonstrating resolve, unity, and decisive action is crucial in confronting Russia. Putin interprets any hesitation, indecision, or fear of escalation as weakness.
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Russia's "Democracy"
🎦 08:09-11:18⏩
Jonathan mocks Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov's assertion that Russia will no longer tolerate criticism of its democracy. He highlights the irony, emphasizing Russia's abysmal rankings in global democracy indices, such as Transparency International's Corruption Index and Reporters Without Borders' press freedom rankings. Jonathan draws parallels with comments made by Finland's Defence Minister, Anti Hakkanen, who recognizes Russia's threat to the democratic world, emphasizing that many in Europe are aware of Russia's aggression and imperial ambitions.
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Sweden joins NATO
🎦 11:18-11:18⏩
Jonathan announces that the Hungarian president has ratified Sweden's NATO accession, which means that Sweden is close to becoming a full member of NATO.
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Criticism of Olaf Scholz
🎦 11:18-12:00⏩
Former NATO chief, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, criticizes German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's stance on Ukraine, deeming him too slow, indecisive, and lacking leadership. Rasmussen believes that wartime demands decisive action, uninfluenced by public opinion, contrasting Scholz's approach with Emmanuel Macron's proactive leadership in supporting Ukraine and uniting Europe against Russia. Jonathan agrees with Rasmussen's assessment of Scholz, arguing that Macron has positioned himself as a strong leader in the face of Russian aggression.
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Belgium expels Russian Diplomats
🎦 12:00-12:27⏩
Jonathan reports that Belgium has expelled numerous Russian diplomats involved in espionage, with Prime Minister Alexander De Croo accusing Russia of undermining Belgian democracy through cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.
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Russia expels Western Ambassadors
🎦 12:27-12:27⏩
In a tit-for-tat response, Anton Gerashchenko reports that the Russian State Duma is considering expelling all Western ambassadors on suspicion of espionage.
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EU Ambassadors refuse to meet Lavrov
🎦 12:27-12:27⏩
Jonathan explains that this action stems from EU ambassadors' refusal to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, citing a lack of clarity regarding the meeting's purpose.
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Russian accusations of "Disrespect" and "Arrogance"
🎦 12:27-12:27⏩
Jonathan highlights the irony of Russian MP Mikhail Sheremet's (representative of annexed Crimea) accusations of the EU Ambassadors being "boorish" and disrespectful, suggesting that they have something to hide. Jonathan reminds viewers that Russia invaded Ukraine. He also notes Sheremet's call for checks on Western ambassadors for espionage and interference in Russian internal affairs, interpreting this as projection, given Russia's well-documented history of using diplomats as spies. Jonathan argues that Russia's invasion of a sovereign nation is the epitome of disrespect and arrogance.
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UK to give frozen Russian assets to Ukraine
🎦 12:27-13:02⏩
Jonathan welcomes the news that the UK is poised to provide Ukraine with frozen Russian assets held in the World Bank, emphasizing the UK's commitment to ensuring Russia pays reparations for its actions.
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Moldova: Target of Russian Disinformation
🎦 13:02-15:40⏩
Jonathan discusses Moldova, revealing that Ukrainian anti-disinformation organisation "Stop Fake", which Jonathan highly recommends, is planning a visit there. Jonathan explains that Moldova's intelligence agency has warned of an unprecedented Russian disinformation campaign aimed at influencing the country's upcoming referendum on EU membership and presidential elections. He criticizes the lack of proactive measures to combat disinformation in countries like the UK. Jonathan suggests that governments should openly educate their citizens about online manipulation tactics employed by Russia and other international actors. He uses an anecdote of a viewer experiencing a wave of pro-Elon Musk and pro-Russian content upon joining Twitter to illustrate the point. Jonathan concludes that Moldova would be wise to launch a widespread public awareness campaign to pre-empt and counter the anticipated influx of Russian disinformation.
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Protests in Poland
🎦 15:40-16:27⏩
Jonathan reports on the large protest organized by Polish farmers in Warsaw. The protest involves an estimated 150,000 participants and Jonathan expects it to become entangled with domestic politics, Russian interference, and genuine grievances. He notes that despite the court's ban on tractors entering the city, farmers still aim to do so, resulting in confrontations with police attempting to prevent them.
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Poland-Ukraine Grain Dispute
🎦 16:27-17:23⏩
In a bid to ease tensions, Ukrainian Trade Minister Kachka has indicated Ukraine's willingness to accept trade restrictions with the EU. However, Kachka simultaneously urges the EU to ban Russian grain imports, which continue to enter via Belarus and the Baltic states. Jonathan is skeptical of Poland's motives, noting that while Polish farmers express genuine concerns, their government seems to be permitting the influx of cheaper grain from Russia and Belarus, implying a deeper, potentially pro-Russian, influence at play. This suspicion is further fueled by reports from Lithuanian farmers complaining about Russian, not Ukrainian, grain flooding the EU market. Jonathan believes Russian disinformation is targeting some EU farmers and highlights that Lithuanian farmers, in contrast to their Polish counterparts, are clear about the source of the problem: Russia.
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Zelensky's Meeting with Argentinian President
🎦 17:23-19:59⏩
Jonathan discusses Argentinian President Javier Milei, a right-wing, anarcho-capitalist with controversial economic policies. He recounts a viewer's criticism of Zelensky for meeting with Milei, given the latter's pro-Israel stance amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Jonathan defends Zelensky's actions, explaining that securing Argentina's UN vote and potential military aid necessitates such diplomatic maneuvers, even if it involves engaging with individuals whose views might not align with Zelensky's. He emphasizes the concept of moral consequentialism, where working towards a greater good sometimes requires pragmatic compromises and engagement with those one might not personally favor. Jonathan uses Argentina's current economic woes, including hyperinflation exceeding 200%, as an example of the challenging circumstances influencing these decisions.
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Elena Zelenska and Yulia Navalnaya decline Biden invite
🎦 19:59-22:39⏩
Jonathan delves into a potential diplomatic faux pas involving the White House's invitation to Elena Zelenska (Zelensky's wife) and Yulia Navalnaya (wife of jailed Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny) to attend Biden's State of the Union address. Both declined, reportedly due to scheduling conflicts. Jonathan speculates that the real reason, particularly for Zelenska, is to avoid jeopardizing US aid to Ukraine, which is facing opposition from Republicans. He argues that their presence at a highly partisan event could be misconstrued as aligning Ukraine with the Democrats, potentially alienating Republicans crucial for continued aid. Jonathan believes that avoiding politicization of the war is paramount. He expresses the view that the White House's invitation, potentially naive in the current hyper-partisan climate, highlights the sensitivity surrounding such events.
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Latvia bans Russian/Belarussian agricultural products
🎦 22:39-23:10⏩
Jonathan reports that Latvia has banned the import of agricultural products from Russia and Belarus, effective March 8th.
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Update: Russian Band "Baitu" in Thailand
🎦 23:10-25:22⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Russian band "Baitu", known for their anti-Kremlin stance, who were detained in Thailand over visa issues, likely due to pressure from Russian authorities. While they were eventually deported to Israel (some members had dual citizenship), new information suggests that a Thai deputy police chief is under investigation for allegedly accepting bribes from Russian diplomats to extradite the band to Russia. This incident underscores the lengths to which the Kremlin will go to silence dissent, even on foreign soil.
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Ukraine fights Russian influence in Sudan
🎦 25:22-26:44⏩
Jonathan highlights a Wall Street Journal article (which he hasn't read yet) that discusses Ukrainian commanders combating Russian influence in Sudan. He explains that Ukrainian forces have been active in Sudan, assisting in repelling Wagner-backed militants. Jonathan argues that this seemingly distant engagement is a strategic move by Ukraine to disrupt Wagner's operations and their exploitation of African resources, thereby cutting off a source of funding for Russia's war efforts.
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Trump to meet Orban
🎦 26:44-29:16⏩
Shifting to US politics, Jonathan reports that Trump is scheduled to meet with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Jonathan sees this as further evidence of Trump's affinity for authoritarian leaders. He criticizes the meeting's supposed purpose of discussing peace in Ukraine, arguing that it's likely a guise for furthering Russian interests and benefiting Trump personally, potentially through oil deals. Jonathan believes that restoring peace in Europe hinges on preventing a Trump victory in the 2024 US presidential election. He argues that Trump's suggestion of Ukraine ceding territory for peace is a non-starter and highlights Trump's history of siding with Putin's word over US intelligence, citing the Helsinki press conference as a prime example. Jonathan believes that Trump's priority in Ukraine would be self-serving, focused on appearing heroic to his base rather than genuinely supporting Ukraine's interests.
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Trump's Finances and relationship with Musk
🎦 29:16-30:40⏩
Jonathan reveals that Trump is facing financial difficulties, with Republican fundraising efforts lagging behind those of the Democrats, who haven't even begun campaigning yet. He notes that Trump owes significant sums (around $500 million) in legal fees. Jonathan speculates that Trump's meeting with Elon Musk, aside from seeking financial support, is also aimed at leveraging Musk's influence. He argues that Musk has a vested interest in a Trump presidency, hoping for deregulation of social media platforms to shield his companies (SpaceX, Tesla, Twitter) from ongoing government investigations.
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Super Tuesday Results: Trump vs Haley
🎦 30:40-38:25⏩
Jonathan analyses the recent Super Tuesday primary results, where Trump secured victories in most states as expected. However, Nikki Haley's unexpected win in Vermont and her stronger-than-predicted performance in other states, exceeding predictions by 20% in some cases, have raised concerns within Trump's camp. Jonathan presents two contrasting interpretations of this data:
- Rove Analysis: Republican strategist Karl Rove suggests that Trump's failure to unify the Republican vote, evident in Haley garnering a significant portion of votes (between 25% to 50%), could spell trouble in the general election. He highlights Trump's underperformance compared to pre-election polls, particularly in Virginia, suggesting waning momentum or issues with polling accuracy. Exit polls indicating a smaller-than-claimed MAGA base (around 30-40%) further support this view.
- 538 Analysis: Conversely, Nate Silver's 538, a respected election analysis site, offers a more cautious interpretation. They argue that polls consistently underestimated Haley's support, potentially due to methodological flaws in modeling primary electorates and a surge in independent and Democrat voters participating in Republican primaries to oppose Trump. They caution against extrapolating these results to the general election, as the dynamics differ significantly. 538 maintains that the majority of Haley voters are likely to fall in line and vote for Trump in the general election, as historical trends suggest. They also point out that many Haley voters in key states were previously Biden supporters, further muddying the waters.
Analysis and Implications
🎦 38:25-47:51⏩
Jonathan tends to agree with 538's assessment, believing that while Haley's performance shouldn't be dismissed, the Republican base is likely to rally behind Trump come November. However, he acknowledges a persistent segment of Republicans who refuse to support Trump, believing he would be detrimental to the country. He anticipates a fierce battle for the presidency, with the outcome hinging on factors like the southern border crisis, abortion rights (Roe v Wade), and Ukraine, which have become increasingly partisan issues. Jonathan expresses frustration over the politicization of Ukraine, believing it will negatively impact vital aid and support. He speculates that Republicans are deliberately obstructing attempts to address issues like the border crisis to maintain a campaign platform. He also believes that social issues like IVF and abortion will be key battlegrounds.
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Wrap Up
🎦 47:51-48:21⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by announcing that he has cut it short, choosing to release the segment about Tony Abbott and Australian influence on pro-Putin Republicans as a separate mini-segment to avoid making the video too long. He signs off and thanks viewers for watching.
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