Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"Honestly, guys, freaking warning bells are going off... What the frick is Musk doing anywhere near the government? Get him out."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:28⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of the Ukraine War Update for 26th November 2024, apologising for the length of the previous video and acknowledging the wealth of information available.

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Russian Economy - Ruble in decline

🎦 00:28-01:04⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russian Ruble has continued to fall, dropping 10% in the last week to above 110, signalling economic trouble for Russia and potential benefits for Ukraine.

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Ukraine Military Aid - General Update

🎦 01:04-01:08⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to military aid provided to Ukraine.

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Ukraine Military Aid - Aid Deliveries

🎦 01:08-01:30⏩
Zelensky states that pledged aid packages are now being delivered in a timely manner. This follows previous concerns that only 10% of pledged aid had arrived.

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Ukraine Aid - G7 Frozen Russian Assets - General Confusion

🎦 01:30-02:08⏩
Jonathan expresses confusion regarding the status of the $50 billion in aid from frozen Russian assets pledged by the G7. While reports suggest the funds are being finalised, there is a lack of clarity on their allocation. Jonathan highlights that despite announcements, the funds have not yet been fully secured.

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Ukraine Military Aid - France to supply arms from seized Russian assets

🎦 02:08-02:28⏩
France has pledged to supply Ukraine with anti-aircraft missiles and other weapons using revenue generated from frozen Russian assets, according to the Moscow Times. However, it remains unclear whether this pledge represents additional aid or part of pre-existing commitments.

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Ukraine Aid - World Bank Loan

🎦 02:28-02:44⏩
Ukraine has received a $4.8 billion loan from the World Bank as part of the 'Peace Project for Social Expenditures' to support the country's essential services and infrastructure.

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Ukraine - Seeks Foreign Investment to boost industrial base

🎦 02:44-03:42⏩
Ukraine is actively seeking $10 billion in foreign investment to strengthen its industrial base, particularly for manufacturing artillery systems, drones, anti-tank weapons, air defence systems and missiles. The country claims to have the potential to significantly increase production if provided with the necessary financial backing.

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NATO - Calls for increased military spending and arms production

🎦 03:42-04:08⏩
NATO's commander, Admiral Vandier, stresses the urgency for Europe to revolutionise and accelerate its arms production to meet current and future security challenges. He advocates for exceeding the current 2% GDP target on military spending, potentially aiming for 3%, and for implementing more agile procurement processes.

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Ukraine Military Aid - NATO - Medium range missiles for Ukraine?

🎦 04:08-05:04⏩
NATO has formally proposed supplying Ukraine with medium-range missiles, with a range of 1000-5500km. This could potentially include Tomahawk missiles, as requested by Zelensky. However, the US under a Trump presidency is unlikely to approve the transfer of these weapons. Jonathan advises caution in interpreting media reports, highlighting that the terms "long-range" and "medium-range" missiles are often used interchangeably.

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Ukraine Aid - Norway to double aid in 2025

🎦 05:04-06:22⏩
Norway has announced plans to double its aid to Ukraine in 2025, bringing the total to $2.75 billion. The decision, driven by the country's robust economic performance fuelled by soaring oil prices, reflects Norway's commitment to supporting Ukraine's defence efforts. Prime Minister Stora emphasized the gravity of the situation and Norway's responsibility as a leading supporter of Ukraine. Jonathan views this sustained support as crucial for Ukraine's morale and negotiating position, potentially influencing whether the country can pursue a favourable peace agreement or face pressure to capitulate to Russian demands.

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Ukraine Aid - Germany provides funds to repair energy infrastructure

🎦 06:22-08:04⏩
Germany has pledged an additional €65 million to the European Energy Community to help Ukraine repair its energy infrastructure, which has been targeted by Russian attacks. This funding aims to provide spare parts and equipment, with a portion dedicated to supporting the transition to green energy solutions. This initiative includes equipping critical public facilities, like schools and hospitals, with solar power systems and battery storage, reducing their reliance on vulnerable centralised power grids and fossil fuels. Jonathan sees this as a positive step towards enhancing energy security by decentralising the grid and adopting more sustainable practices. He believes this approach not only benefits Ukraine's immediate needs but also aligns with a long-term shift toward a greener economy.

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Ukraine - Decentralising Energy Grid - Jonathan's view

🎦 08:04-09:48⏩
Jonathan emphasizes the strategic importance of Ukraine adopting green energy solutions, not just from an environmental perspective, but also for national security. He highlights the benefits of decentralising the energy grid to mitigate the impact of Russian strikes on critical infrastructure. Jonathan shares a personal anecdote about his own solar panels, expressing his interest in renewable energy and highlighting its practicality, particularly in conflict zones. He advocates for micro-production of energy to enhance resilience and reduce dependence on vulnerable large-scale power sources. Jonathan concludes that transitioning towards a more distributed energy system with renewable sources is essential for Ukraine's long-term stability and resilience.

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Ukraine Military Aid - Czech Republic - Ammunition Initiative

🎦 09:48-09:57⏩
The Czech Republic has committed to extending its ammunition initiative for Ukraine into 2025, ensuring continued support for the country's defence efforts.

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Ukraine Military Aid - France - Mirage 2000s - Update

🎦 09:57-10:48⏩
Deliveries of Mirage 2000 fighter jets from France to Ukraine are expected to commence in the first quarter of 2025. Training of Ukrainian pilots and mechanics is progressing well. The French Foreign Minister confirmed the deployment of a French-trained Ukrainian brigade, equipped by France, known as 'Anne of Kiev,' to Ukraine. He added that while France is willing to train additional troops, it has not received any further requests from Ukraine.

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Ukraine Military Aid - Storm Shadow Missiles - Global Stocks

🎦 10:48-12:18⏩
Jonathan discusses the global availability of Storm Shadow missiles, noting that over 2,600 exist worldwide, excluding an undisclosed number held by India and Egypt. Ukraine's current supply is limited to the reserves available from the UK, France, and Italy, estimated to be around 1,600 missiles, with a small portion already expended during operations in Iraq in 2003. Jonathan questions whether Ukraine has explored the possibility of acquiring Storm Shadow missiles from other countries as these weapons are gradually being phased out. He suggests that Ukraine might be seeking to purchase these missiles before they become entirely obsolete.

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Ukraine Military Aid - Hitchhiker - Electric powered Anti-Drone System

🎦 12:18-12:39⏩
Ukraine has successfully tested a new electric-powered anti-drone system called 'Hitchhiker'. This domestically developed system can detect, classify, track, and neutralise hostile drones using its own drone launched from various locations, providing a comprehensive defence mechanism against drone threats.

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Ukraine Military Aid - Countering Russian Drones/EW - Then and now

🎦 12:39-13:35⏩
Jonathan reflects on the evolution of Ukraine's air defence capabilities, specifically in countering Russian drones. In the early stages of the war, Ukraine faced significant challenges in neutralising Russian AN-10 and AN-30 surveillance aircraft used for targeting. Over time, Ukraine has bolstered its air defences with Gepard anti-aircraft systems, mobile air defence units, MANPADS, and audio tracking systems for larger drones like the Shahid. Innovative solutions such as using FPV drones to intercept reconnaissance drones and deploying planes with personnel armed with shotguns highlight the adaptability of the Ukrainian forces. The introduction of the Hitchhiker system signifies a substantial advancement in Ukraine's drone defence strategy.

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Ukraine Military Aid - SafeSky Simulator for Air Defence Training

🎦 13:35-14:04⏩
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has officially endorsed and implemented a portable air defence training simulator called 'SafeSky'. This simulator enables air defence teams to hone their skills and practice engagements without expending live ammunition, allowing for more efficient use of resources and enhanced combat readiness.

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Ukraine Military Aid - "Onsila Sturm" APC - Approved for use

🎦 14:04-14:35⏩
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has granted approval for the use of a new armoured personnel carrier (APC) named 'Onsila Sturm'. The vehicle, which sports a distinctive cyber-truck aesthetic, will be manufactured in various configurations. Jonathan lightheartedly remarks that the 'Onsila Sturm' may eventually appear on lists of military equipment losses in the future, given the inevitable attrition of warfare.

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Ukraine Military Aid - Delegation in South Korea - Potential Aid and N Korea

🎦 14:35-15:09⏩
A Ukrainian delegation, led by Defence Minister Rustam Umarov, is currently in South Korea. The delegation's visit, confirmed by the Ukrainian news agency, will focus on securing military aid and addressing North Korea's involvement in the war. Meetings with the South Korean President and Defence Minister are on the agenda, reflecting a potential strengthening of ties between the two countries. Jonathan mentions an intriguing side note: a Ukrainian MP from Zelensky's party has called for Umarov's arrest, but the reason remains undisclosed.

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Russia - Using Ukrainian Tu-2-160 bombers against Ukraine

🎦 15:09-15:46⏩
In a poignant twist of irony, Russia is deploying Tu-2-160 bombers against Ukraine, planes that Ukraine itself had handed over to Russia 25 years ago as part of a disarmament agreement. According to Svoboda, six former Ukrainian Tu-2-160s are currently in active service with the Russian air force, highlighting the long-term consequences of past decisions.

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Russia Military Aid - Reliant on Chinese Radios

🎦 15:46-16:56⏩
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia continues to rely on Chinese-made radios for military communication due to its inability to domestically produce a sufficient quantity of high-quality alternatives. Jonathan notes that this reliance on foreign-made equipment was evident from the early stages of the war and contributed to vulnerabilities in Russia's communication networks, making them susceptible to interception. These security breaches resulted in Ukrainian forces being able to target and eliminate several high-ranking Russian commanders in the early phases of the conflict, highlighting the strategic significance of secure communication in warfare.

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Ukraine Military Aid - US - Officials predict negotiations/territorial concessions

🎦 16:56-17:30⏩
Citing a report from the Washington Post, Jonathan reveals that several US officials believe Ukraine may be compelled to enter negotiations with Russia within a matter of months, potentially leading to territorial concessions. This assessment suggests a shift in perspective among some within the US government, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of unwavering support for Ukraine's war effort.

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Ukraine Military Aid - US - Biden's last stand? (Aid, ATACMS, Trump, North Korea, Funding)

🎦 17:30-20:06⏩
Jonathan analyses the potential implications of a looming change in US administration on the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. With President Biden's term coming to an end, and President-elect Trump's stance on Ukraine being less supportive, there are concerns about the future of US military aid to the country. Jonathan highlights Biden's recent policy shifts, such as the decision to provide cluster munitions and potentially ATACMS long-range missiles, as a strategic manoeuvre to strengthen Ukraine's hand in any potential negotiations. However, with a limited time frame before Trump assumes office, there is uncertainty surrounding the impact of these late-stage decisions. The potential for Trump to curtail military aid to Ukraine, coupled with reports of North Korea deploying troops to bolster Russia's invasion, raises further concerns about a shift in the balance of power. The Biden administration's efforts to expedite the allocation of remaining military aid before Trump's inauguration underscore the urgency of the situation. Jonathan emphasizes the need to closely observe the composition of upcoming aid packages to gauge the level of commitment from the US government in the waning days of the Biden administration.

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Ukraine Military Aid - US - Breakdown of Biden's $24bn Funding Request

🎦 20:06-21:13⏩
Jonathan dissects the Biden administration's request for an additional $24 billion in aid to Ukraine. Intriguingly, the proposed package is structured with a two-pronged approach. $16 billion, representing two-thirds of the requested amount, is earmarked for replenishing US weaponry stocks. This strategic move is likely to garner support from some Republicans who might be more inclined to endorse funding aimed at bolstering US military capabilities rather than directly aiding Ukraine. The remaining $8 billion is allocated for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), primarily funding contracts with US companies for supplying arms to Ukraine. While the overall request faces opposition from some Republican lawmakers like Mike Lee, who has criticized the move, the inclusion of funding for US stock replenishment might increase its chances of passing through Congress.

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Ukraine Aid - US - Frozen Russian Assets - Biden vs Trump

🎦 21:13-22:29⏩
Jonathan revisits the ambiguous situation surrounding the $4-5 billion in frozen Russian assets held by the US. With the upcoming transition of power, the decision on how to utilise these funds will fall to President-elect Trump. This development further complicates the already intricate issue of financial aid to Ukraine. The lack of clarity on the status of these frozen assets, particularly in relation to loans that might be contingent on them, adds another layer of complexity. Jonathan questions the feasibility of Trump using these assets for any purpose other than underwriting loans to Ukraine, as diverting them would essentially amount to directly gifting the money to Ukraine, a move that seems improbable given Trump's previous pronouncements. The ongoing debate about directly transferring these frozen assets to Ukraine instead of using them as collateral for loans further underscores the uncertainty surrounding their fate. Jonathan's analysis highlights the complexities and potential roadblocks in leveraging these assets to provide substantial financial support to Ukraine.

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US/UK - Counter-drone System to tackle Drone incursions over UK Airbases

🎦 22:29-24:06⏩
Jonathan discusses recent drone incursions over UK airbases, specifically RAF Lakenheath, Mildenhall, and Feltwell, which house US military infrastructure and aircraft. While the identity and motives behind these incidents remain unclear, speculation ranges from the involvement of mischievous individuals to potentially more coordinated and malicious actors. Significantly, the UK's Royal Air Force (RAF) has offered the US a sophisticated counter-drone system capable of electronically hijacking enemy drones, turning them against their operators, and aiding in identifying those responsible. Jonathan speculates that this technology, given the UK's leadership in the 'Capability Coalition,' might also be made available to Ukraine, enhancing its defences against drone threats.

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US - Biden requests $24bn - John Ridge's Perspective (DoD, Contracts, Inauguration)

🎦 24:06-25:07⏩
Jonathan provides an update on Biden's request for $24 billion in Ukraine-related funding and brings in the perspective of defence policy expert, John Ridge. Ridge points out that even if Congress approves the funding, which he considers unlikely, there's little chance the Department of Defense (DoD) would process and award contracts for even half the USAI funds before Trump's inauguration. This analysis suggests that time constraints might pose a significant hurdle in swiftly delivering aid to Ukraine, even if Biden manages to secure Congressional approval. Jonathan uses this opportunity to advise viewers to approach such claims with a healthy dose of scepticism, hinting at potential political manoeuvring in the final days of the Biden administration.

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US - Senator Tommy Tuberville's $211bn Gaffe

🎦 25:07-26:28⏩
Jonathan, in a humorous aside, calls out US Senator Tommy Tuberville for a major factual error regarding aid to Ukraine. Tuberville claimed that the US has sent $211 billion to Ukraine, a figure four times higher than the combined contributions of the rest of the world. However, this number actually represents Russia's estimated war expenditure. Jonathan, with evident amusement, highlights how Tuberville's blunder underscores the prevalence of misinformation and the importance of relying on credible sources, such as the Ukraine Support Tracker from the Kiel Institute, for accurate information.

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US - Elon Musk's involvement in US military decisions - A cause for concern?

🎦 26:28-32:31⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over Elon Musk's growing influence on US military decisions. He criticizes Musk's role within the Trump administration, particularly his involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) alongside Vivek Ramaswamy, where he advocates for drastic cuts to the federal budget, including a potential $2 trillion reduction. Jonathan finds Musk's involvement in areas like military procurement and strategy particularly alarming, citing potential conflicts of interest due to Musk's companies holding government contracts. He sarcastically refers to Musk as "the Scarecrow's official" and questions the wisdom of granting an unelected individual with significant business interests such access to sensitive government domains. Jonathan then highlights a series of Musk's tweets criticizing the F-35 fighter jet program as being outdated and advocating for a shift towards drone warfare. He expresses concern over Musk's public pronouncements potentially influencing military procurement decisions, especially given his financial ties to the defence industry. He argues that decisions about complex military technology should be left to experts and not swayed by the opinions of individuals with vested interests, regardless of their stature or perceived intelligence. Jonathan urges viewers to be wary of the potential for corruption and to critically evaluate information, even when presented by influential figures. He concludes by expressing deep unease about Musk's influence within the Trump administration, emphasizing the need for transparency and accountability in government decisions.

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US - F-35 vs Drones - The debate rages on

🎦 32:31-34:42⏩
Jonathan delves into the online debate sparked by Musk's comments regarding the F-35. While some users echoed Musk's sentiments, many experts and defence analysts have pushed back, defending the F-35's capabilities and highlighting the continued relevance of manned fighter jets in modern warfare. Jonathan refrains from taking sides in the debate but emphasizes the importance of relying on expert opinions over those of armchair generals and social media influencers. He directs viewers to a video by Ryan McBeth, a defence analyst, which provides a detailed rebuttal of Musk's claims and underscores the unique capabilities of the F-35 that are difficult to replicate with current drone technology. Jonathan reiterates his concerns about the implications of an unelected individual like Musk wielding influence over military procurement and strategy, stressing that such decisions should be driven by rigorous analysis, expert input, and national interest, not personal opinions or potential conflicts of interest. He concludes by urging viewers to remain vigilant and critical of information, particularly when it comes from individuals with significant financial stakes in the outcome of government decisions.

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Wrap up

🎦 34:42-34:48⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and promises to return soon with more updates.

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