Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Wallace, Daly, Zdanoka, & Ukrainian Views

"There is grudging respect for Russia's ability to switch to a war footing...but frustration that Ukraine's economy hadn't already been put on military rails and the red tape that hampers their ability to self organise."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:55⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to an "extra nuggets and tidbits" video. He's just back from watching The Fall Guy at the cinema with his Dad - a good fun film! Apologises for the delay in the mapping update (JR usually updates the maps) but it will be done tomorrow morning as he needs to purge himself of geopolitical nuggets before his next video. The next video will be about the prognosis for Ukraine and how they can succeed/what success looks like.

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Latvian MEP Tatiana Zdanoka accused of being a Russian Spy

🎦 00:55-05:15⏩

This video will begin by looking at Latvian MEP Tatiana Zdanoka (long serving MEP), who in late January 2024 was the subject of an investigation by The Insider and other media sources. They found she had been connected to Russian Intelligence (FSB) and effectively handled by them in the European Parliament. This was controversial. She has connections to two Irish MEPs - Claire Daly and Mick Wallace who this video will focus on - mainly Claire Daly. Journalist Michael Weiss has come out with further evidence (emails going back years) showing how Zdanoka was tasked by the FSB's fifth service handlers e.g. during the Euromaidan Protests she sent a memo to the FSB about the situation in Kyiv which may have accelerated Moscow's policies in Ukraine. The two Irish MEPs accompanied Zdanoka on trips to Russia, and vote against anything pro-Ukraine in the European Parliament which suggests where their sympathies lie.

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Irish MEP Claire Daly accused of colluding with Russia

🎦 05:15-18:39⏩

When the investigation came out, Claire Daly told the Irish Independent that they broke up years ago and that Zdanoka never did the washing up. More recently, The Sunday Times published an article accusing Daly of helping the Russians by giving the details of Liam Campbell (wanted for the Omagh bombing) to Algirdas Palekis (a Russian agent prosecuted by Lithuanian security services for passing information to the Kremlin). Jonathan believes that Daly is more than an unwitting useful idiot for the Russians, and that she is more insidiously connected. Pekka Kalyaniemi did a Vatnik Soup video on Daly in January 2023 where he summarises how Daly, strongly aligned with Mick Wallace, spends most of her energy appeasing Russia and China, criticising the US, and was elected to the Dáil (Irish Parliament) in 2011. In 2012 she was accused of misusing travel funds and refused to call for the resignation of Mick Wallace (whose company forgot to pay €2.1m in VAT). She resigned from the Socialist party and became an independent MP. In June 2013, after the G8 summit (before Russia were kicked out over Crimea) she accused the Irish government of prostituting the country to the US and Obama, who she called a war criminal. In 2019 she was elected to the European Parliament and accused of nepotism for hiring her ex-husband (who previously employed Wallace's son). In 2021 she visited the HQ of Iran-backed militia group Popular Mobilization Forces and was an unofficial election monitor with Wallace in Venezuela and Ecuador (without a mandate or permission from the EU). In the European Parliament, she and Wallace attempted to remove parts of a report on MH17 (shot down by the Russians) and attended protests in support of Palekis. In 2022 she said Russian troops on the Ukrainian border were "clearly defensive" and that there was no evidence Russia would invade. She has voted against almost every pro-Ukrainian vote (including declaring Russia a terrorist state), and her speeches are filled with Whataboutism and accusations of US Imperialism (a very common approach). Jonathan explains that whilst there may be some justification to those who are anti-US Imperialism, anti-capitalist imperialism (citing John Pilger's War on Democracy), those sympathetic to this argument are fertile ground for Russia's narrative. Kalyaniemi's Vatnik Soup video concludes by stating that Daly has been featured on Chinese state-sponsored TV, and in more Chinese language news articles than any other Irish person (with Wallace coming a close second), and how she often praises China. Jonathan moves on to a Vatnik Soup video about Mick Wallace (from January 2023). Wallace, also elected in 2019, is an anti-imperialist (anti-US and anti-NATO) and his views align with those of The Grayzone - supporting Venezuela, China, Russia, Belarus, and Syria. He called Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (Belarusian presidential candidate) a pawn of Western neoliberalism and Juan Guaido (Venezuelan opposition leader) an unelected gobshite. Like Daly, in 2021 he visited the HQ of the Popular Mobilization forces, and blamed the White Helmets of being corrupt and paid for by the US and UK to carry out regime change in Syria. He was one of the few MEPs to vote against condemning Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega for human rights violations. Like Daly, he attempted to remove parts of the MH17 report and has criticised sanctions on Russia. In his defence he has also called for peace negotiations. His support started after the illegal annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. He has downplayed the Uyghur concentration camps. He told the Global Times (a Chinese state run newspaper) that China takes better care of it's people than the EU, and is in the "Taiwan is part of the CCP gang". His company declared bankruptcy in 2016 (€30 million in debt), forgot to pay €2.1m in taxes in 2012 and admitted fiddling his company's VAT returns. He was due to speak at an event with The Grayzone but the venue cancelled. Kelly O'Neill (in response to a Politico article) believes that they will lose their MEP seats but will still be paid by the CCP. Recent polls suggest that they face an uphill battle. Jonathan finishes by stating that anyone who votes like that in the European Parliament (pro-Russia) is an automatic red flag.

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Ukrainian Views on the War

🎦 18:39-25:19⏩

Moving on from the Irish MEPs, Jonathan shares a Twitter thread by a senior Ukraine analyst who recently returned from Kyiv where he met with political and military actors, those supportive and critical of Zelensky, and ordinary Ukrainians. The most remarkable thing is the resilience and unity of the Ukrainian people. There are grumblings (it's a democracy after all) but there is broad consensus to keep fighting. Air raid sirens in Kyiv are treated with a sense of "sangfroid", confident in the air defences, although one acquaintance felt that another attack on Kyiv is possible (something she wouldn't have said a year ago). There is frustration at the government and suspicions that some are profiting from the war, but they understand this is no time for elections (a topic covered in a previous video). The analyst spoke to a fierce political opponent of Zelensky who said elections cannot be held until 3 months after a ceasefire and the lifting of martial law. Surprisingly, there is little nervousness about a 2nd Trump presidency and many Ukrainians (fed up with the Biden administration's caution) believe Trump would "shake things up". Jonathan finds this naive and has made a video as to why Trump is bad for Ukraine. There is friction between Zelensky's office and the US State Department - US diplomats are seen as being stuck on conventional talking points (civil society, anti-corruption), whereas Andriy Yermak (Zelensky's chief of staff - who some believe to be the most important man in Ukraine) prefers to go straight to Jake Sullivan. Zelensky is placing inflated hopes on the Swiss peace conference (a way for Ukraine to regain agency) but it's likely to be more talk than action. The US is curbing Ukraine's expectations ahead of the NATO summit in Washington (Ukrainians joke that it stands for "No Action, Talk Only"). Pragmatic Ukrainians say that a bilateral security agreement with the US is the best they can hope for in Biden's first term. There is grudging respect for Russia's ability to switch to a war footing, but frustration that Ukraine's economy hadn't already been put on military rails and the red tape that hampers their ability to self organise. One interesting observation is that Putin has killed the Russian language in Kyiv. Young people are switching to Ukrainian as a statement of their identity and repudiation of the invasion. Mobilisation affects all Ukrainians and many believe they have to "muddle through" to the start of next year when "everything will be ok" - but at what cost?

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Wrap up

🎦 25:19-26:36⏩

Jonathan acknowledges that there are grumblings both within the population and the armed forces about the administration and Zelensky, which is understandable after two years of war. He signs off stating that the next video will be about Bidzina Ivanishvili (a Georgian politician and oligarch who leads the Georgian Dream party) and that he had recorded a long sprawling discussion about fascism but decided to save this for another day as it would have made the video too long.

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