Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"Give the Ukrainians the weapons they need without limit and this war will end and Ukraine can start sharing lessons learned"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:36⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel, a Ukraine War Update NEWS video and the second part for 08/03/2024. He explains that there is an awful lot of military and geopolitical news and he will be covering Biden's State of the Union address as well has lots of military aid and equipment news. He acknowledges that this means splitting videos which leads to a lot of content, but hopes his viewers can forgive him for it. He thanks his viewers for spending so much time with him and jokes that it's probably more time than with their partners.

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France: Macron - French Troops could be deployed to Ukraine

🎦 00:36-03:34⏩

Jonathan highlights French President Macron's prominence inside Europe as a rallying point for Ukraine. Macron has told French Parliament that France could send troops to Ukraine if Russia breaks through the front lines to Odesa or Kyiv, according to French media outlet L'Indépendant. Jonathan applauds Macron for laying down a red line for Russia by telling Russia what they should not be doing and what the consequences will be if they do, which he feels is long overdue. He states that France sending troops to Ukraine could trigger other countries to follow suit and lists Estonia, Latvia, UK, Germany, and Canada as possibilities. Jonathan feels that this is another example of Macron positioning himself at the forefront of the Ukraine war. The French Defence Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, has said that there are no plans to deploy combat troops but that France will send military personnel to train troops or participate in mine-clearing operations. In addition to this, three French companies will sign partnership deals with Ukraine to produce weapons, with the first production units launching this summer. This, according to Jonathan, is "freaking important" because it gives Ukraine a sustainable way forward, allowing it to stand on its own two feet with regard to arms production.

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Czech Republic: Initiative to send 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine

🎦 03:34-06:18⏩

Jonathan reports on the Czech Republic initiative, spearheaded by Petr Pavel, to send artillery shells to Ukraine. 18 states joined the initiative and the goal to purchase 800,000 artillery shells has been achieved. This number has increased to 1 million after Norway's Ministry of Defence announced its participation in the initiative. Whilst Jonathan acknowledges that this won't end the war overnight, he highlights how important artillery shells are and how expensive they are to produce. He praises the initiative for providing so much-needed support to Ukraine. He addresses criticism that the EU has not yet reached its pledge of 1 million projectiles by the end of March, pointing out that it's not the end of March yet and that the EU is significantly increasing its production. He feels that, in this case, credit should be given where it is due. A user comment by "Chris\_O\_Wiki" states: "I have to say there’s no European leader who’s impressed me more this year than Peter Pavel", to which Jonathan agrees and sings his praises. Pavel, a former NATO guy, has used his Presidential position very effectively, even though the role doesn't hold much political power in Czechia. He has been very vocal about the difficult situation Ukraine is in, whilst also working to facilitate much-needed military aid.

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Bulgaria: Europe's largest ammunition producer

🎦 06:18-08:27⏩

Jonathan mentions Velina Tchakarova who tweeted that "Bulgaria is the largest producer of ammunition in Europe. The Bulgarian arms industry produced more ammunition in 2023 than the rest of Europe. Both private and state-owned gunsmiths have plans to expand their factories.". This leads on to Jonathan's point that the Bulgarian arms industry is a key component in the support of Ukraine, especially since it is one of the few countries still producing Soviet-era ordnance. At the beginning of the war, Bulgaria provided a third of their ammunition to Ukraine.

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Lithuania: Sending 155mm artillery ammunition to Ukraine

🎦 08:27-09:26⏩

Lithuania's Ministry of Defence has announced that it is sending an undisclosed amount of 155mm artillery ammunition to Ukraine. Jonathan is impressed with the current level of support but highlights that it is long overdue as support has been largely reactive, rather than proactive. He feels positive about Ukraine's current position and shares his excitement about the latest military aid news.

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Greece: Rumours that it is sending all of its Soviet Era Equipment to Ukraine

🎦 09:26-13:40⏩

Jonathan shares a rumour that Ukraine is getting all of Greece's Soviet-era weaponry, facilitated by the US, although the exact details are unknown. Jonathan speculates that this may be linked to Greece's desire to purchase F-35s from the US. He believes that this is another example of the significant role the US is playing in supporting Ukraine, even without being able to pass aid bills through Congress. He references John Kirby, the National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the White House, who has previously stated that, in addition to military aid bills, the US is working to support Ukraine in many other ways. Jonathan provides an extensive list of the Soviet-era weaponry that Greece possesses, acknowledging that Ukraine may not be getting all of it:

• 8 S300 air defence systems (potentially batteries, rather than just launchers)
• 6 Buk M1 (older Buk air defence systems, which have been adapted to fire RIM-7 Sea Sparrow anti-air missiles)
• 31 Tor-M1 (air defence system)
• 39 SA-8 (not clear what these are - possibly a mistranscription)
• 500 ZU-23-2 (large anti-aircraft machine guns)
• 82 T-80 tanks
• 42 BMP-3s
• 100 BMP-1s
• 10 BTR-60s
• 12 2S1 Gvozdika (155mm self-propelled guns)
• 116 RM-70 (multiple rocket launchers)
• 6 BM-21 Grad (multiple rocket launchers)
• 12 PMP (floating bridges)
• 2,000 9K111 Fagot (anti-tank guided missiles)
• 2,084 9M113 Konkurs (anti-tank guided missiles)

Jonathan is unsure of the timeframe but believes that if all this equipment were to be sent to Ukraine, it could be more help than from any other country in the past year.

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United Kingdom: Grant Shapps visits Kyiv and announces a new £325 million defence package

🎦 13:40-17:20⏩

Ben Wallace, the UK Defence Secretary, visited Kyiv and met with Zelensky. Jonathan, who has previously been critical of the UK's level of support for Ukraine, especially considering the percentage of GDP spent on military aid, acknowledges that the UK has provided some impactful support, including Challenger 2 battle tanks, NLAWs (Next generation Light Anti-tank Weapons), Storm Shadow cruise missiles, as well as training for Ukrainian troops. The UK has pledged a £2.5 billion package and a further £325 million defence package, the largest yet this year. The package includes over 10,000 new drones for Ukraine (a mix of tactical FPV (First Person View), long-range loitering munitions, surveillance drones, and maritime drones).

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Canada: Joins a Drone Coalition for Ukraine

🎦 17:20-18:12⏩

Canada has joined a drone coalition to support Ukraine, with Canadian Defence Minister, Anita Anand, promising to further strengthen Ukraine's drone capabilities. Canada has also announced the transfer of more than 800 Canadian-made drones to Ukraine. Jonathan acknowledges the significant role that companies such as Roshel, a Canadian arms manufacturer, has played in supporting Ukraine by providing a thousand Senator APCs (Armoured Personnel Carriers).

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Germany: Debate over sending Taurus Missiles to Ukraine

🎦 18:12-21:10⏩

UK Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, recently visited Berlin, where he argued that supplying Ukraine with arms would not escalate the war but would instead contribute to peace efforts. This is in response to Germany's reluctance to send Taurus missiles over fears that this would escalate the war. MBDA Deutschland, the German arms manufacturer, has confirmed that Ukraine could use Taurus missiles without requiring direct German involvement or soldiers on the ground. Despite this, Olaf Scholz's SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany) party, is still against sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine. The opposition party, the CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union), wants to submit a draft resolution to the Bundestag calling on the government to approve the transfer of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, with a vote expected next week. Jonathan notes that the SPD party is struggling in the polls and suggests that this could be linked to their stance on the Taurus missiles. He speculates that if enough pressure is applied, Scholz may change his mind. Scholz's Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius, has said that sending long-range missiles will not be a deciding factor in the war and that Germany does not intend to provide ground troops. The reason for not sending Taurus missiles appears to be based solely on escalation fears.

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Poland: Supplies 100 Oncilla APCs to Ukraine

🎦 21:10-21:59⏩

Jonathan reports that Polish company, Mista, has supplied Ukraine with 100 Oncilla APCs. Footage shows that these vehicles are already being used by the National Guard and Ukrainian Defence Intelligence.

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Canada: Roshel investing $65 million in new HQ and production facilities

🎦 21:59-24:37⏩

Roshel, a Canadian armoured vehicle manufacturer, is investing CA$65 million in a new HQ and production facility in Brampton, Ontario. The 140,000 square foot facility will also house an R&D division. Jonathan points out that Roshel's success, having delivered over 1,000 Senator IMVs (Infantry Mobility Vehicles), is a case study in how government orders unlock private capital, generate investment, and boost local economies.

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Discussion: Weaknesses in NATO Training

🎦 24:37-28:51⏩

Jonathan shares a Twitter thread by Malcolm Nance, a former US Navy intelligence officer, that highlights weaknesses in NATO training. Nance states that the level of intensity in the Ukraine war is unlike anything that NATO has experience with since, potentially, the Korean War. Jonathan shares anecdotes of Ukrainian troops finding that Western training isn't always relevant to their experiences on the frontline in Ukraine, particularly when it comes to operating without air support or sophisticated intelligence. A comment by Malcolm Nance states: "This article is ridiculous… I spent 10 months in the International Legion and 7 of those in Kharkiv on it near the zero line, including the 2022 Kharkiv counter-offensive. A US Special Forces ODA could impart some very basic skills to the basic trainees… but to be completely honest, the 8 weeks polygon training the Ukrainian recruits go through is intense and based on real experience of Ukrainian combat veterans with 10 years of it fighting the fighting Russia with all of its resources. Fact Ukrainian SSO (Special Operations Forces) and GUR (Main Intelligence Directorate) are going to be training the American special forces in the coming years. For example, 1.5 and 2-kilometer kill shots by snipers are considered standards in Ukraine now and not limits.". Jonathan expands on this by stating that whilst the US Armed Forces may train for 1.5-2 km kill shots, this is often seen as unrealistic or as the upper limit of their capabilities. Nance continues: "US soldiers no matter how experienced in Iraq and Afghanistan, have no clue what is happening on the ground out here. There is limited artillery support. Intelligence at the battalion level is what you collect visually or by drone. There is no air support. Communications are what you make. You stay on the zero line for weeks and in artillery range for months. Insertions and extraction are done by pickup truck, APC, or on foot. The artillery environment is insane. Now add Lancet, Russian, FPV drones, and random ballistic missiles falling out from the sky. The level of intensity of combat hasn’t been seen since Vietnam and Korea for the US Army. Give the Ukrainians the weapons they need without limit and this war will end and Ukraine can start sharing lessons learned." Jonathan agrees with this and reiterates his belief that Ukraine has a lot to teach NATO going forward and that it's doing incredibly well despite fighting with one arm tied behind its back. He recounts a story of when Ukrainian soldiers asked NATO how to cross minefields and were told to go around them, to which they pointed out that this is not feasible as the minefields are 700km long! He concludes by saying that this has been "rumbling on now for over a year" and that something needs to be done about it.

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Russia: New FPV Drone with 10km Fibre Optic Cable

🎦 28:51-30:12⏩

Russia has developed a new FPV drone with a 10km fibre optic cable attached, meaning that it does not need to use radio signals, making it harder to disrupt with electronic warfare. Whilst Jonathan acknowledges that the cable could be a weak point, he also highlights that drones are difficult to spot and the cable itself would be even harder to see. He is impressed by this development and speculates that Ukraine may be developing something similar.

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Russia: Mass production of FAB-1500M54 bombs

🎦 30:12-31:49⏩

Russia has reportedly started mass-producing its heaviest bomb, the FAB-1500M54. The one-and-a-half ton bomb, a further development of the KAB-1500, was originally developed in the Soviet Union in the 1970s and has been used since the 1980s. Jonathan highlights that these bombs are capable of destroying buildings in ways that artillery cannot. They were used recently in an attack on the town of Krasnohrad, with footage of the attack being shared by Russian propagandists. The head of the Ukrainian Air Force, Mykola Oleshchuk, warned back in November 2023 that Russia was preparing to deploy more FAB-1500s. Jonathan believes that mitigating against Russian aviation is a huge target for Ukraine going forward.

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Ukraine: Wind Turbine downs Iranian-made Shahed Drone

🎦 31:49-32:54⏩

In lighter news, Jonathan shares a story about an enemy Shahed drone (believed to be Iranian-made) that was downed by a wind turbine in the Mykolaiv region of Ukraine. The drone became stuck in the blades and had to be dismantled by Ukrainian sappers, who then detonated the explosive part. Jonathan jokes that this is a great use for wind turbines, providing power as well as air defence.

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Wrap Up

🎦 32:54-32:55⏩

Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support and signs off.

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