Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, Budanov and Mines
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia's top leadership now understands what a big mistake they made in 2022 because their intelligence, which is based on false data, completely failed."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video - today's video is the first part of the Ukraine War Update News. It's the 24th February 2025, the somber 3 year anniversary of the start of the war. Lots of dignitaries are in Kyiv to pay their respects. Jonathan comments that there's a lot going on: a flurry of announcements concerning aid for Ukraine, the results of the German elections (good news for Ukraine) and robust rhetoric coming from Friedrich Merz, likely to be the new German chancellor. He laments that all this is restricting the bandwidth for information about the war and the front line.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Daily Losses - General Staff Update
🎦 01:12-03:00⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian general staff figures for the previous day's Russian losses (the usual caveats apply and can be found in the video description). He comments that Personnel losses are lower, although still above 1000 - 1050 personnel were lost. 9 tanks (about average), 6 AFVs (much lower than average) and 44 artillery systems (more than double the average) were destroyed. Jonathan believes that degrading Russian artillery is an explicit objective for the Ukrainians at the moment. 3 MLRS were destroyed, a good haul given the average is usually 1. 110 vehicles and fuel tanks were also destroyed.
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Drone Warfare
🎦 02:14-05:18⏩
Jonathan highlights the high number of drones reported lost (267) and explains that this figure relates to a combination of the past 2 nights activity. Although not a record, a lot of drones were still sent into Ukraine. This high number is reflected in the daily losses. Jonathan thinks that the front line has been somewhat quieter than of late, the Russians have been at it a long time and appear to be slowing down - this is also reflected in the mapping updates and reduced claims of the intensity of attacks. Jonathan notes that despite this, there will of course be areas where the Russians are still attacking hard. He goes on to discuss the importance of drones in the conflict (particularly FPV and IED dropping) which he describes as doing an incredible job of degrading the Russian armed forces. Ukraine has substituted artillery for drones which he believes is reflected in the lower number of artillery pieces being destroyed.
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War Crimes: Russian Soldiers Execute Ukrainian POWs
🎦 05:19-05:55⏩
Jonathan reports another tragic incident involving the execution of 2 wounded Ukrainian POWs by Russian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade near Sochi in Kursk Oblast. He notes that this is a cynical violation of the Geneva Convention and a reminder of the horrors committed by the Russians. The uncensored video can be viewed on the WarTranslated Telegram channel.
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Ukrainian Drone Strikes - Magyar's Birds
🎦 05:57-07:35⏩
Jonathan shares some footage from Magyar whose drone unit is now a fully fledged brigade. Magyar has reported that his fibre optic drones are operating up to 20km behind Russian lines which suggests they are using 25km reels of fibre optic cable. Jonathan is impressed by the footage which he describes as incredible and shares details of a successful strike on a fortified Russian equipment park in a concrete shelter in Seladova. 2 BMP-1 APCs and a truck were destroyed in the attack. Jonathan shares Magyar's commentary of the strike in which he can be heard deciding which part of the vehicle to target, before exclaiming "Bang" as the munition detonates. The drone was destroyed in the attack but 3 vehicles were taken out.
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Russians Target Ukrainian Drone With Laser
🎦 07:35-08:30⏩
Jonathan shares night time footage of a drone exploding in the sky, the claim is that this drone was destroyed by a laser. He notes that there have been rumours about lasers being used and this footage could well be the first publicly available example of this in the war in Ukraine.
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Equipment Shortages: Russia Resorts to Using Donkeys and World War 2 Era Vehicles
🎦 08:30-10:47⏩
Jonathan discusses evidence of Russian equipment shortages which he describes as proof that the Kremlin has run out of equipment and is having to send museum pieces to the front line. He highlights a tweet from Tim White with a video showing a World War 2 era motorcycle with a sidecar. Jonathan clarifies that although there have been other examples of old vehicles being used in the war (trucks and motorbikes), he doesn't believe that this is universal and that some Russian units will be well equipped and effective. He then shares some footage of one of these old motorbikes being destroyed, followed by more footage of a donkey carrying mortar bombs for the Russians, commenting "needs must".
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Ukrainian Air Defences Highly Effective Against Iranian Shahed Drones
🎦 10:48-11:20⏩
Jonathan reports that there were a large number of drone attacks (185 Shahed drones) overnight but only 1 drone got through. 113 were shot down and 71 suppressed by electronic warfare - Jonathan describes this as incredible and astounding success for the Ukrainians.
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Life in Kyiv
🎦 11:20-13:01⏩
Jonathan shares a comment from a viewer (Lachlan Guddy) who lives in Kyiv describing the drone attacks. Lachlan says that there's been a big uptick in drone attacks around Kyiv recently and that although they sound far away, they are more likely to be mid-distance. He goes on to say that he feels safer with double glazing and often wears headphones to reduce the noise, adding that in the summer with the windows open it would be much louder. Lachlan recalls that a recent drone/rocket attack on the Botanic Gardens in Kyiv shook him. Jonathan recalls his recent trip to Kyiv where he felt quite safe in the centre and even ignored the air raid sirens. He describes how the hotel he stayed in, overlooking Maidan Square, had an announcement urging people to take cover, but nobody did. Jonathan believes that the centre of Kyiv is relatively safe as the Ukrainian air defences are very effective and the Russians are more likely to be targeting industrial and military targets on the outskirts of the city.
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Ukraine Infrastructure: Russians Target Energy Infrastructure
🎦 13:01-13:16⏩
Jonathan reports that according to the Ukrainian Prime Minister, Denis Shmihal, Russia has knocked out 10 Gigawatts of Ukrainian electricity. The Ukrainian government is working to attract investment from Europe to help restore power generation capacity. Ukraine's gas infrastructure has also been badly hit recently.
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Successful Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Oil Refineries
🎦 13:16-15:11⏩
Jonathan reports that overnight the Ryazan oil refinery was hit again - there were at least 5 explosions and fires broke out in the area of the ELOU-86 primary oil processing plant. This is the third attack since the beginning of the year. Yesterday the Ukrainians also struck an oil depot - the FTKU March 8 in the Tula region. Jonathan says that there has been some success but perhaps not as much activity as previously seen, although much may be going on that we are unaware of. He describes the Ryazan refinery as one of the largest in Russia with a processing capacity of 17 million tonnes of oil per year - it produces a range of fuels and petrochemicals. He highlights a tweet from PS01 who said that aviation fuel is particularly important as it is critical for Russian aviation and strategic long range bombers striking Ukraine.
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Ukrainian Strike on Toropets Ammunition Depot
🎦 15:11-16:16⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers about the successful Ukrainian strike on the Toropets ammunition depot which caused several earthquakes. He shows satellite imagery from the time showing the devastation. At the time there were no figures about the scale of damage, however, information has come to light suggesting that 160,000 tonnes of ammunition were destroyed. 50% of all 120mm mines were destroyed in that attack which Jonathan describes as particularly successful.
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Ukrainian Domestically Produced Munitions
🎦 16:16-16:57⏩
Jonathan notes that it is unknown what munitions were used to attack Toropets, but highlights that this attack demonstrates that the Ukrainians are ramping up production of long range munitions. There are claims about new types of drones and missiles being produced (including the Trambita, Peklo and Paliantsia) but these have not been used in widescale attacks. Jonathan speculates that these new weapons may have been used in the attack on the Ryazan oil refinery and that Ukrainian forces are likely to be using a suite of different munitions to try to overcome Russian electronic warfare and air defence systems.
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Assassination Attempts - Russian Special Services Target Ukrainian and US Officials
🎦 17:00-18:02⏩
Jonathan discusses comments made by the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Budanov, at a forum yesterday, in which he said that Russian special services are planning to assassinate him. The SBU chief, Malyuk, has said that over the past 3 years, 102 spy networks have been uncovered. The Russians were also planning a terrorist attack at a Kyiv hypermarket during peak hours. Jonathan is surprised that there haven't been more terrorist attacks and assassination attempts - he speculates that some are likely carried out but we don't hear about them.
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Ukrainian Armed Forces Restructure
🎦 18:02-18:58⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelenskyy has determined the make up of new army corps and appointed 18 new commanders. The Ukrainian armed forces are being restructured: most brigades are being consolidated into 18 corps each made up of 5 brigades. 1 corps will have 7 brigades. The Ground forces will have 13, the Airborne Assault force will have 2, the Marines 1 and the National Guard 2. Jonathan explains that these corps are mini armies within the army able to operate fairly autonomously. He believes that this restructure is a really positive step forward for the Ukrainian armed forces and will result in more competency within the leadership and recruitment, better organisation and more efficient sharing of best practice.
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Russia - Ukraine War: Geopolitical Implications and The Future of Russia
🎦 18:58-22:40⏩
Jonathan discusses the wider geopolitical context of the war and the likelihood of the outcome. Budanov claims to have seen Russian planning documents that suggest that if Russia is not victorious by 2025, it will no longer be a superpower or even a regional power. Jonathan believes that this is a real opportunity for the United States and is frustrated by their lack of leadership in this. He describes hearing the BBC's Jeremy Bowen reporting from Kyiv this morning openly stating that Trump has switched sides. This is major news as usually journalists are reluctant to openly criticise world leaders in this way - he speculates that this is a sign that they can no longer ignore what is in front of their eyes. Jonathan describes Friedrich Merz (likely to be the next German Chancellor) as stating that Germany has as much to fear from the US as it does from Moscow. He goes on to say that Biden was always going to support Ukraine but now Trump is openly supportive of Russia. Budanov went on to say that the Russian leadership now realise that invading Ukraine was a huge mistake and that their intelligence was based on false data. Jonathan highlights that he wrote about this in February/March 2022 and questioned how he, sitting in his office in the UK, could have better intelligence than the FSB. He finds it unbelievable that the Russians thought that they could capture Kyiv in 3 days and suppress resistance across the country in 10 - stating that this is clearly not a war, but a "cut the head off the snake" type operation and that it shows how bad Russian intelligence is. Jonathan believes that this demonstrates that the Russians were planning a Special Military Operation and that it was a huge intelligence failure that resulted in their plans failing.
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Russia - Ukraine War: It Started as a Special Military Operation (SMO)
🎦 22:40-24:39⏩
Continuing the theme from the previous topic, Jonathan address criticism from a viewer who contacted him saying that to claim that Russia was only planning a Special Military Operation (SMO) minimises what they have done. He reiterates his belief that what happened in the first few days of the war shows that Russia's plan was for a swift decapitation of the Ukrainian government and key infrastructure, believing that they would be welcomed with open arms by the Ukrainian people. He goes on to say that the Russians did not have a plan for a full scale war and that they had to completely change their approach when it became apparent that the Ukrainians would fight back. Jonathan believes that this backs up Budanov's assertion that the Russian intelligence services completely misjudged the situation, highlighting the 3 day timeframe to take Kyiv and the 10 day timeframe to suppress resistance. He describes the Russian's initial plan as an "incisive operation" and that only when this failed did it turn into a war, stating that "it's that simple". Jonathan believes that Russia's intelligence failings and their inability to adapt to a rapidly changing situation, are key reasons for Russia's failures. He finds it fascinating that a viewer could know more than the FSB. He goes on to play a clip from a BBC news report from Steve Rosenberg, the BBC's Russia editor, who states that 3 years ago, this wasn't supposed to be a war. Rosenberg goes on to say that the Kremlin had envisaged it as a Special Military Operation (SMO) that would be over quickly and didn't go according to plan. Jonathan agrees wholeheartedly with Rosenberg's assessment.
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Was Russia at its Weakest in 2023?
🎦 24:39-25:32⏩
Jonathan discusses the commonly held view that Russia was at its weakest in the first year of the war. He speculates that had things been different (e.g. if Ukraine had had all the weapons it needed) then perhaps it could have been victorious then. He doesn't believe that it's possible to know the answer to this but finds it a fascinating question nonetheless.
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News In Brief: Molotov Cocktail Attack on Russian Consulate in Marseille and Putin Sells 100 Tonnes of Gold
🎦 25:32-27:01⏩
Jonathan reports on two unconnected news items:
- There have been explosions near the Russian consulate in Marseille in France. Molotov cocktails were thrown at the building and 30 firefighters and police are on the scene.
- The Polish foreign minister has revealed that Putin has secretly sold off 100 tonnes of Russian gold reserves. Jonathan plays a clip of Sikorsky discussing how well Ukraine has performed in the war (110 brigades, destroying most Russian tanks, drone production, only 20% of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia). Sikorsky goes on to say that Putin secretly sold 100 tonnes of gold, a sign that the Russian economy is in trouble. He believes that the recent push by Russian forces and the huge losses they have incurred to capture small villages was done to project an image of strength. Sikorsky believes that Ukraine can fight on with European support for the rest of the year and that Putin knows this. He goes on to say that there is no need to rush into a peace deal with Russia from a position of weakness and that doing so will only benefit Russia.
Is Putin Trying to Project Strength to Impress Trump?
🎦 27:01-29:06⏩
Jonathan agrees with Sikorsky's assessment and says that it is not in anyone's interest, least of all Ukraine's, to make a deal when Russia is weak - economically, militarily and politically. He believes that making peace now would only play into Russia's hands. Jonathan then highlights a comment from PS01 who suggests that Putin selling off Russian gold reserves explains why the Ruble has strengthened recently. He believes that Putin is trying to create an image of economic strength to impress people like Trump. Jonathan agrees and describes this as a high stakes gamble by Putin to get Trump re-elected. He then discusses a rumour he heard recently about Russia changing the way it sets mobilisation targets for businesses and organisations. Apparently this is similar to what they did during the last mobilisation and could indicate that Putin is considering a full mobilisation. Jonathan believes that this would be a fascinating development and wonders how the rest of the world would react.
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World Leaders Meet in Kyiv to Mark the 3rd Anniversary of the War
🎦 29:06-31:22⏩
Jonathan describes watching footage of world leaders meeting with Zelenskyy in Kyiv to mark the 3 year anniversary of the war. He lists a number of leaders he recognises: Andrei Yermak, Ursula von der Leyen, Kamishin, Bridget Brink and Justin Trudeau. He is struck by how many of these leaders he now recognises. A total of 37 world leaders attended the meeting in person or online, with several new military aid packages and a new round of EU sanctions being announced. The 16th round of sanctions includes: 13 banks being excluded from SWIFT, sanctions on 73 Russian vessels, sanctions on 53 individuals, a ban on aluminium imports and the suspension of licenses for 8 Russian media outlets in the EU. Jonathan highlights that this is a significant announcement but questions why it has taken 3 years to implement. The EU has also announced a further 3.5 billion Euros of aid for Ukraine which Jonathan believes is part of the 50 billion Euro package underwritten by frozen Russian assets.
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Wrap Up
🎦 31:22-33:30⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to spare a thought for all those who have lost their lives. He goes on to say that there are victims on both sides - Russians have been brainwashed by disinformation and propaganda into believing the lies of their government. He asks viewers to remember the Ukrainians who continue to fight not only for their freedom but for everyone's. He describes the stance of the United States as heartbreaking and depressing, believing that they are forcing Ukraine into a bad deal and playing into Putin's hands. Jonathan closes the video with a poignant "Slava Ukraini".
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