Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia must be defeated, full stop."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video - a Ukraine War News Update, part one of the update for 20/11/2024. He apologises for the late release of the video, jokingly blaming it on a night out with friends discussing politics and philosophy.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Data - 19/11/2024
🎦 00:08-01:28⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian general staff's figures for Russian losses on 19/11/2024, acknowledging the figures should be taken with caution. The reported losses are high, with 1690 personnel, 8 tanks, 27 armoured personnel vehicles, 49 artillery systems, 2 anti-aircraft systems, 100 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 2 pieces of special equipment. He notes this indicates a particularly active front line. He highlights the tradeoff for Ukraine between Russian territorial gains and Russian losses, and suggests Ukraine seems willing to accept the losses given the high rate of attrition the Russians are suffering.
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Oryx Data - Russian and Ukrainian Losses 18/11/2024 and 19/11/2024
🎦 01:28-08:03⏩
Jonathan analyses the visually-confirmed Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses for the 18th and 19th November, using data from Oryx. He notes that on the 18th, while Ukrainian losses were relatively light, the Russians lost a significant amount of equipment, including an EW system, a recovery vehicle, drones, artillery, around 10 tanks of various types, a damaged T-90M, and a large number of infantry fighting vehicles, primarily BTRs. He observes the list of Russian losses is "incredibly long". For the 19th, the Ukrainians again lost fewer pieces of equipment than the Russians, though the difference is not as stark as the previous day. However, when it comes to combat assets, the Russians lost at about a 2:1 ratio. Jonathan comments that the Russian losses over the two days are substantial and "surely going to be hurting the Russians". He also mentions a civilian bus that was attacked in Kherson, calling it "unconscionable" and expressing frustration with those who still sympathise with Russia.
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Russian Desertions/Losses in Kursk
🎦 08:03-11:32⏩
Jonathan discusses several reports indicating the heavy losses Russia is sustaining.
- A PS01 post suggests an entire regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the Russian Armed Forces has deserted. Jonathan expresses surprise at the claim, noting that over 1000 soldiers are listed as having left without permission.
- He shares an observation from Andrew Perpetua, considered a "doomer", who reports carnage within the 810th Brigade, with potentially over 1000 soldiers missing, likely dead. Perpetua states the brigade is taking soldiers from other units to replenish its ranks.
- Jonathan links these reports to the high Russian losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, concluding that "all the parts of the jigsaw are painting that picture" of significant Russian losses.
- He also cites a post from a Russian doctor, Yuri Yevich, complaining about Ukrainian drone superiority in Kursk, claiming Ukraine uses 5 drones per infantryman and 15-20 drones per piece of equipment.
Ukrainian Drone Superiority
🎦 11:32-17:35⏩
Jonathan further explores Ukraine's drone superiority.
- He references a post by Chris Fawcett, a Ukrainian soldier fighting in Kursk, who highlights the need for anti-personnel mines. Fawcett states Ukraine lacks such mines and that their infantry struggles to sustain contact with the enemy in trench warfare.
- Jonathan relates this to the recent US decision to provide anti-personnel landmines to Ukraine, acknowledging the ethical concerns but arguing that from a military perspective, it's what Ukraine needs.
- He shows a video of a Russian assault group in civilian vehicles being halted by Ukrainian drones, suggesting this is a consequence of Russia running out of suitable military vehicles.
- He points out that offensive and defensive mining, often carried out remotely using drones, has become highly effective for Ukraine in holding terrain.
- He cites further reports from Creed's Fortune highlighting Ukrainian drone successes against Russian vehicles.
- He reiterates the importance of drones for Ukraine and acknowledges that even though Russia is making gains, they are doing so at a huge cost, evidenced by various reports and data.
Russian FPV Drone Tactics
🎦 17:35-18:36⏩
Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's observation about Russian drone pilots targeting the tracks of Ukrainian tractor vehicles with FPV drones. He says he has wondered why Ukraine hasn't employed this tactic, as disabling the tracks would render a vehicle immobile and easier to target further.
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New York Times Report on Russian Casualties/Recruitment
🎦 18:36-22:04⏩
Jonathan analyses a New York Times article that estimates at least 150,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the war. He compares this figure with the Ukrainian General Staff data, concluding that it seems reasonable considering a typical ratio of wounded to killed soldiers. The article also states that Russia is recruiting around 900 new soldiers daily, allowing them to replenish losses and create new units. The article highlights the contrasting views on Ukraine's challenges: Russian sources claim a lack of weapons, while the US administration suggests a shortage of soldiers is the issue, urging Ukraine to enhance its mobilisation efforts.
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Fire at Institute of Civil Aviation in Russia
🎦 22:04-22:32⏩
Jonathan reports on a fire at the Institute of Civil Aviation in Russia. He notes it is unlikely to be war-related, but is another example of important infrastructure being damaged by fires.
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Overnight Drone Attacks on Ukraine
🎦 22:32-23:27⏩
Jonathan details the latest wave of drone attacks on Ukraine. Russia launched 122 drones, with 56 shot down by conventional means, 58 disrupted by electronic warfare, and possibly 6 turned back, meaning potentially only 2 drones got through. He mentions two KH-59 cruise missiles were also intercepted out of 5, and that S-300 surface-to-air missiles were also used by Russia. He acknowledges damage was still inflicted despite the high interception rate.
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Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russia
🎦 23:27-27:31⏩
Jonathan examines reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia. Russian media claimed 45 drones attacked various regions, while the Russian Ministry of Defence reported destroying 42 drones within three hours. However, the exact success of the attacks is uncertain.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Targets
🎦 27:31-29:42⏩
Jonathan covers a number of successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets:
- An ammunition warehouse in Kotovo, Novgorod region, over 800 km from the Ukrainian border, was hit.
- A factory in the Voronezh region, possibly involved in military production, was struck.
- A tractor plant in Volgograd was targeted, with fire crews attending.
- A food production facility in Belgorod Oblast was also hit, but reports suggest it was involved in making cargo drones for the Russian army.
He also cites Zelensky's comment on the strike on the ammunition depot in Bryansk (from a previous night), where the president confirmed Ukraine has long-range capabilities, including drones, Neptune missiles, and TACMS.
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Ukrainian use of GBU-39 Guided Bombs
🎦 29:42-29:42⏩
Jonathan highlights footage of Ukrainian forces using GBU-39 guided bombs to hit Russian bunkers, ammunition, and soldiers in the Zaporizhzhia region. He emphasises the importance of Ukraine increasing the use of air power and guided bombs, as this is how Russia achieved success. He also notes that Ukraine is receiving AASM hammer guided bombs from France and is likely developing its own.
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ATACMS strikes on Russian ammunition depot
🎦 29:42-31:16⏩
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian ATACMS strike on the ammunition depot in Bryansk. A US official confirmed eight missiles were fired, with six hitting the target. The US is assessing the damage. He speculates that the strike, even with only partial success, could be a worthwhile investment for Ukraine, as it disrupts Russian supply lines. Forbes reports that Ukraine may only have 50 ATACMS missiles, and it's unclear if more will be provided. Jonathan notes that the US has two months to provide further military assistance before the Trump administration takes over.
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UK/US differences over ATACMS strikes
🎦 31:16-32:16⏩
Jonathan examines the contrasting stances of the US and UK regarding the ATACMS strikes. The UK Prime Minister, Starmer, hinted it was only a matter of time before Ukraine used British-made Storm Shadow missiles against Russia, suggesting the US has been holding back approval for such strikes.
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Potential Russian Air Attack on Kyiv
🎦 32:16-33:18⏩
Jonathan reports an urgent warning from the US embassy in Kyiv about a planned significant Russian air attack. Several embassies, including the US, Spain, Italy and Greece have closed and told employees to shelter. He suggests this indicates an imminent threat.
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Putin Open to Peace Deal
🎦 33:18-35:17⏩
Jonathan discusses a Reuters report suggesting Putin is open to a peace deal but is unwilling to make major territorial concessions. The report claims Russia may withdraw from small areas in Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions, but insists on Ukraine abandoning NATO membership. Putin seeks a ceasefire that reflects the current front lines and fears a short-term truce that would allow the West to rearm Ukraine. However, Peskov, Putin's spokesman, has denied the report, stating that achieving all declared goals remains important for Moscow. Jonathan expresses concern that Putin's willingness to negotiate could signal a disadvantageous situation for Ukraine, particularly given the potential for the US to cut aid under the Trump administration. He contrasts this with a statement from Macron, who insists on peace without capitulation, a stance Jonathan believes the US would not enforce.
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Zelensky's Concerns About US Aid Cuts
🎦 35:17-37:23⏩
Jonathan reports on Zelensky's statements regarding potential US aid cuts:
- On Fox News, Zelensky stated, "If the US cuts aid, which they will do, I think we will lose," suggesting his belief that US support is crucial for victory.
- Despite acknowledging Ukraine's own production capabilities, Zelensky stated they are not enough to win or even to survive.
Jonathan observes that Zelensky's language is "ominous" and reflects the growing concern over the US election outcome and its potential impact on Ukraine's future. He shares his own sense of deflation and speculates that Ukrainians on the ground must feel even worse.
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Shifting Ukrainian Attitudes towards Peace Negotiations
🎦 37:23-37:56⏩
Jonathan highlights a Kiev Independent report citing a Gallup survey showing a significant shift in Ukrainian attitudes towards peace negotiations. 52% of Ukrainians now favour negotiations to end the war as soon as possible. Jonathan links this shift to the uncertainty surrounding US support, suggesting that the US election results have diminished hope for a Ukrainian victory.
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Poland Considers Increasing Support/European Options
🎦 37:56-43:04⏩
Jonathan discusses the possibility of increased support from other European countries, particularly Poland, in the face of potential US withdrawal. He quotes Radostaw Sikorski, Poland's foreign minister, who acknowledges the potential for reduced US involvement and expresses appreciation for the willingness of larger EU countries to take on the burden of support. Jonathan explores four potential options for Europe:
- Appeasement: Learning Russian and welcoming Russia's influence (favoured by leaders like Orban and potentially Schultz).
- Abandonment: Letting Ukraine fall, which he predicts would lead to a larger war in Europe within 2-5 years, costing millions of lives.
- Direct Intervention: A coalition of the willing fighting alongside Ukraine, potentially leading to a decisive victory but with a high cost in casualties.
- Securing Western Ukraine: A coalition securing territory west of the Dnipro, freeing up Ukrainian troops for the eastern front and potentially serving as a staging ground for future intervention.
He dismisses the first option, suggesting the Baltic states and Poland would likely intervene regardless. He argues that abandoning Ukraine is short-sighted and would lead to a larger conflict. While acknowledging the current lack of support for direct intervention, he suggests it could become a last resort. He favours the fourth option, securing Western Ukraine, as a more feasible immediate step, with the possibility of full intervention later. He also expresses concern about the US military suffering a brain drain under Trump's presidency due to his plan to require oaths of loyalty and potentially unconstitutional actions, leading many officers to consider leaving.
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Russian Economic Problems
🎦 43:04-44:02⏩
Jonathan provides two indicators of Russia's struggling economy:
- The price of Olivier salad, a traditional New Year's dish used as a measure of consumer inflation, has increased by almost 70% in a year.
- Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank, has stated that almost all available resources in the Russian economy are in use, and the bank forecasts stagnation for the next year.
Twitter Rant about US Election
🎦 44:02-45:38⏩
Jonathan shares an amusing anecdote about an American Twitter user, Jordan Ackman Motrax, who sent him a rant about the US election result. The user criticises those who doubted Trump's victory and uses profanity in his message. Jonathan humorously notes that receiving such messages is a sign of success and enjoys the "pleasant conversation" it provides.
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Wrap up
🎦 45:38-45:43⏩
Jonathan ends the video with a chuckle and a farewell, "Take care, toodlepips."
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