U POLITICAL NEWS/ANALYSIS: Biden Polls & Keep Your Eye on Kelly
Table of Contents 📖
"I think that there is a stronger argument for renewing uh a of voting for the Democrats rather than against the Republicans."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:21⏩
Jonathan introduces the video, mentioning he's just come from gardening, specifically pinching out his tomatoes. He says he'll be discussing a new poll that has come out.
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Poll suggesting Biden is not the best choice for Democrats
🎦 00:21-01:56⏩
A poll memo suggests that top Democrats are considering dropping Biden as the party nominee ahead of the election. The poll was conducted by Blue Labs Analytics and interviewed 15,000 voters in seven battleground states. It found that the alternative candidates have a 3-point lead over Biden. The memo suggests that most voters are looking for a fresh face. Jonathan gives his perspective as a Democrat strategist, stating that he would energise the campaign by focusing on the positives of the Democrats rather than just focusing on defeating the Republicans.
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Kamala Harris as a potential candidate
🎦 01:56-04:46⏩
Jonathan explores the possibility of Kamala Harris being a potential candidate. He points out that she has been doing better in recent polls and that the "mere exposure effect" might be at play. The more she's in the limelight, the more credible she appears. He argues that she could mobilise a strong black and brown vote, a female vote, and has a strong position on reproductive rights. He feels that she needs more exposure as she has been sidelined by Biden since becoming Vice President.
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Strong contenders for the Democratic nomination: Mark Kelly, Wes Moore, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer
🎦 04:46-05:50⏩
The poll identified several strong contenders for the nomination, including Senator Mark Kelly (Democrat Arizona), Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. They all polled ahead of Biden by about 5 points. Jonathan highlights that these individuals are considered "fresh faces" and are not closely tied to the current administration.
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Why Jonathan thinks Senator Mark Kelly is a good candidate
🎦 05:50-08:33⏩
Jonathan discusses why he thinks Senator Mark Kelly is a good choice for the Democratic nomination. He highlights Kelly's background as a veteran, a former navy captain, and a former astronaut, which he believes could appeal to independent and Never-Trump voters. He also mentions Kelly's strong stances on gun control and climate change. Jonathan points out that Kelly's wife, Gabby Giffords, was the victim of a near-fatal assassination attempt, which could make him more persuasive on issues like gun control.
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Gavin Newsom as a possible candidate
🎦 08:33-11:40⏩
Jonathan considers the possibility of Gavin Newsom becoming a candidate. He acknowledges that Newsom being from California could be seen as problematic as it could reinforce the perception of Democrats being full of California elites. Jonathan also discusses the possibility of Newsom running as Vice President under Harris or potentially with another running mate. He considers Josh Shapiro to be another strong contender for the nomination.
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Factors that could convince Biden to step aside
🎦 11:40-13:30⏩
Jonathan discusses three factors that could convince Biden to step aside: 1) Continued poor polling data, 2) A loss of donor support, and 3) Pressure from lawmakers. He believes that as these factors grow in intensity, it will be harder for Biden to ignore the sentiment that he is not the best candidate for the Democratic Party.
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Wrap Up
🎦 13:30-14:33⏩
Jonathan ends the video by saying he thinks there's plenty of time for the Democrats to energise their base and make a strong push for the election. He emphasizes the need to mobilise voters and get their message across to independent voters, as well as those who voted against Trump. He also suggests that strong foreign policy messaging might be a key component in persuading those who might not be enthusiastic about Biden. Jonathan thanks his viewers and signs off.
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