Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"Zelensky was at the sign for Avdiivka... I don't think you realize how insane that is... that is basically one to two kilometers from the actual front line...would you ever see Putin do that? No, of course you wouldn't."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan kicks off the frontline update with gratitude to JR for the mapping work and previews that there will be a news update tomorrow. He mentions that there is unconfirmed information that a Russian TU-22M3 long-range strategic bomber may have been shot down in the Kursk region, possibly by a Ukrainian Patriot system.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
ISW: Russia deploys POW battalion; disbands DNR's Cascade unit
🎦 01:49-04:40⏩
Jonathan highlights the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) report that Russia has deployed a battalion comprised of Ukrainian prisoners of war. He condemns this as a violation of the Geneva Convention, pointing to other Russian war crimes such as using Ukrainian soldiers as human shields and executing POWs. Jonathan analyses the ISW's assertion that Russia plans to disband the Donetsk People's Republic's (DNR) Cascade unit by December 31st as part of a broader effort to formally absorb separatist forces into the regular Russian army. He argues that this move aims to erase the pretense of a separate conflict in Donbas and solidify Russia's direct control.
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Northeastern axis: Russian losses near Kreminna and Svatove
🎦 04:40-08:10⏩
Moving to the northeastern front, Jonathan reports heavy Russian losses near Kreminna, specifically around Sinkivka and Yahidne. He references footage showing destroyed Russian vehicles, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian mine-laying tactics using RAM artillery shells. Despite these setbacks, Jonathan acknowledges Russian gains south of Kreminna, near Terny and towards Yampolivka and Torska. He expresses concern about the Russian advance towards the Zherebets River, noting its potential as a defensive line but downplaying its immediate strategic significance.
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Bakhmut Front: Russian advances near Soledar and Spirne
🎦 08:10-15:03⏩
Jonathan observes that Russia has made significant advances north of Bakhmut, particularly around Spirne and along the railway line towards Vymka. He notes discrepancies between different map sources regarding the situation near Vesele, with some indicating a Russian advance that others don't reflect. He raises concerns about the potential loss of Siversk, emphasizing the importance of holding ground as a buffer zone. Jonathan points to a dated ISW geolocation, questioning its relevance after eight days. He also recounts a concerning account from a purported foreign fighter, "Orsis," describing heavy fighting and losses near Klishchivka. However, he stresses that Orsis's claims are unverified.
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Donetsk Front: Zelensky's Avdiivka visit and Russian gains
🎦 15:03-20:49⏩
Jonathan discusses the significance of Ukrainian President Zelensky's visit to Avdiivka, emphasizing the risk and boldness of this move. He praises Zelensky's courage in visiting troops so close to the front line, interpreting it as a powerful message of defiance against Russia. He reports on Russian gains north of Avdiivka, near Stepove and along the railway line toward Ocheretyne, with some variation between mapping sources. He highlights reports of increased Russian use of loitering munitions and glide bomb strikes in the area, suggesting that this could be a prime target for Ukrainian Patriot systems.
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Southern Front: Limited Russian gains near Robotyne
🎦 20:49-22:41⏩
Shifting to the southern front, Jonathan observes small Russian gains west of Vodyane near Robotyne, attributing them to Andrew Perpetua's mapping. He acknowledges the concerning nature of Russian advances in this area over recent days but questions the strategic value of Robotyne for Ukrainian forces. He notes conflicting reports on Ukrainian and Russian advances in this area, with some sources indicating a Ukrainian foothold north of Vodyane.
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Kherson: Crinki as a Russian equipment graveyard
🎦 22:41-25:32⏩
Jonathan reiterates his belief that the ongoing fighting in the Crinki area of Kherson Oblast is part of a deliberate Ukrainian strategy to draw in and fix Russian forces, making them vulnerable to artillery and drone attacks. He presents evidence of significant Russian equipment losses in Crinki, describing it as an "equipment graveyard." He draws parallels between the destruction in Crinki and other heavily contested areas like Klishchivka, Marinka, and Novomykolaivka, criticizing Russia's concept of "liberation" as nothing more than annihilation.
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Wrap up
🎦 25:32-27:52⏩
Jonathan concludes with a plea to viewers to like, subscribe, and share his videos. He expresses frustration with suspected YouTube censorship, noting a high number of deleted comments and unsubscribes, and vows to contact YouTube support. He thanks viewers who participated in a recent charity drive for Ukrainian drones, promising to provide an update on the total raised. Jonathan signs off with a humorous anecdote about the BBC crime series "Shetland."
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