Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"My feeling is that the Russians are thinking we've got to do this now, we've got to keep pushing and it may be that we aren't in the best position to do that in terms of our own troops and our own equipment stocks but the Ukrainians are in an even weaker position and so it's strike while they are in this hot and that's my interpretation."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:14⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to an ATP Geopolitics Front Line Update for 24th March 2024 and reminds viewers to check out the key on the map if necessary.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Uncertainty Regarding Russian Volunteer Attacks North of Border

🎦 00:14-00:56⏩

Jonathan notes that he is unsure what is happening north of the border in areas such as Kuzemka and Gryvoron, where Russian volunteer fighters have been active. He speculates that this lack of information could be due to media focus on recent events in Ukraine, successful repulsion of the volunteer fighters, or simply a lull in activity.

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Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Front: A Stable Front Line

🎦 00:56-01:01⏩

Jonathan observes that the front line from Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna appears to have stabilised.

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Serebryansky Forest: Russian Gains and Geolocation Challenges

🎦 01:01-02:46⏩

Jonathan reports, citing Andrew Perpetua, that Russian forces have made gains in Serebryansky Forest. He acknowledges the difficulties of geolocation in forested areas, especially given the defoliation in the area. Jonathan highlights Andrew Perpetua's cautious approach to updating maps in such areas, noting that Perpetua's recent adjustments align more closely with Deep State Maps and Suriat Maps.

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West of Bakhmut: Ukrainian Challenges and Potential Fall of Chasiv Yar

🎦 02:46-05:16⏩

Jonathan identifies the area west of Bakhmut as particularly challenging for Ukrainian forces. He highlights the significance of Russian gains on high ground north of Ivanovske, suggesting that this could signal the eventual fall of the settlement. He expresses concern about the implications for Chasiv Yar, suggesting that its fall to Russian forces may be inevitable, potentially by the summer. Jonathan acknowledges that significant military aid, particularly from the US, could alter the situation. He thanks JR for his mapping work.

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Kupyansk to Kreminna: ISW Analysis of Russian Tactics

🎦 05:16-06:41⏩

Jonathan cites the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an American think tank, which describes Russian tactics in the Kupyansk-Kreminna area. He states that Russian forces are conducting daily infantry-led "meat assaults" with significant artillery, drone, and anti-aircraft support. While acknowledging occasional Russian armoured assaults, Jonathan notes the destruction of six out of ten Russian armoured vehicles in a recent attack.

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Yampolivka and Terny: Russian Troop Concentrations

🎦 06:41-06:29⏩

Jonathan, again citing the ISW, points to Russian attacks on Yampolivka and Terny with significant troop concentrations (approximately a division's worth of forces per settlement). He acknowledges Ukrainian resistance and equipment losses on both sides. Jonathan highlights that this area is witnessing significant use of mechanised equipment.

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Bakhmut: Russian Claims, Ukrainian Resistance, and Attrition Warfare

🎦 06:29-09:52⏩

Jonathan revisits the Bakhmut situation, noting the Russian MOD's claim of capturing Ivanovske. He cites a prominent Russian milblogger who suggests that fighting continues in Ivanovske, indicating that Russian control may not be complete. The ISW, however, has not yet confirmed the Russian capture of Ivanovske. The ISW also reports positional fighting northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka, west of Bakhmut near Ivanovske, southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchivka and Andriivka, and further south in New York. Positional fighting was also reported in the Siversk area, northeast of Bakhmut, near Rozdolivka, Vesele, and Spirne. Jonathan highlights the high rate of Russian equipment losses inflicted by Ukrainian forces (estimated at 60-70%) near Bakhmut, based on a report from a Ukrainian battalion commander. He emphasizes, however, that the sheer volume of troops and equipment deployed by the Russians allows them to absorb these losses and continue advancing.

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Bakhmut: Suriat Maps Analysis of the Situation

🎦 09:52-18:59⏩

Jonathan discusses analysis from Suriat Maps, highlighting the capture of Ivanovske as a potential turning point in the battle for Bakhmut. Suriat Maps argues that Russia's earlier loss of high ground east of the canal during Ukraine's summer offensive allowed for the recapture of Klishchivka and Druzhba, using the railway as a natural border. However, heavy Ukrainian attrition enabled the Russians to regain the initiative, retaking areas west of the railway. Jonathan analyses Suriat Maps' claims, illustrating them on the map. He highlights the significance of the high ground north of Ivanovske in potentially deciding the fate of Klishchivka and the area down to Andriivka. Jonathan points out Suriat Maps' assertion that Russia's capture of Mount Baba, north of Ivanovske, could facilitate their advance to the canal. Suriat Maps believes that the loss of high ground may force a Ukrainian withdrawal from Klishchivka and the eastern bank of the canal. Suriat Maps contends that the canal would then become a new natural barrier, fortified by trenches on the western bank. The analysis suggests that, depending on developments north of Bakhmut (specifically the Bohdanivka-Kaline-Hryhorivka axis), Russian forces might eventually cross the canal near Stepochky. This would enable them to attack Chasiv Yar from the south as they approach the outskirts of Kostyantynivka. Suriat Maps speculates that while Russia could potentially achieve a canal crossing during the spring, any advance on Kostyantynivka remains several months away. Jonathan acknowledges that such an eventuality would significantly worsen Ukraine's position.

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Avdiivka: Russian Advance and Potential Ukrainian Defensive Lines

🎦 18:59-21:13⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to Avdiivka, noting the consensus among map sources (Suriat Maps, Deep State Maps, and Andrew Perpetua) on Russian advances pushing Ukrainian forces westward towards the river and its water features. He raises questions about the extent of the Russian push west of Tonen'ke before encountering significant Ukrainian resistance. Jonathan speculates whether Ukrainian defences are concentrated around the river and lakes, utilising natural barriers, or if they are more dispersed. He wonders if the Russians will halt at the river or attempt to cross it and gain control of the higher ground to the west.

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Avdiivka: ISW Assessment of Russian Advances

🎦 21:13-21:00⏩

Jonathan presents the ISW's assessment of the Avdiivka situation, which confirms marginal Russian advances south of Berdychi and west of Tonen'ke based on geolocated footage. He notes unconfirmed claims from Russian milbloggers regarding advances northwest of Tonen'ke and north of Olivka. Jonathan concludes that the reported activity aligns with his expectations, acknowledging that ceding ground while inflicting losses on Russian forces is preferable to defending strategically insignificant areas.

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Krasnohorivka: Minor Adjustments to Front Lines

🎦 21:00-21:47⏩

Jonathan observes minor adjustments to front lines around Krasnohorivka, with Deep State Map indicating some Russian gains southeast of the settlement. He clarifies that these adjustments may not necessarily represent recent activity but rather an alignment with information already present on Suriat Maps. Jonathan notes that Andrew Perpetua's map reflects similar dimensions in the area.

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Southern Front: Russian Gains and Map Discrepancies

🎦 21:47-22:21⏩

Jonathan examines the southern front, highlighting slight Russian gains south of Staromlynivka on Deep State Map and Suriat Maps. He points out the discrepancy with Andrew Perpetua's map, which does not reflect these changes. Jonathan speculates whether Perpetua has yet to encounter sufficient evidence to warrant adjustments or if the gains represent a repelled attack, casting doubt on actual Russian control.

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West of Vuhledar: Russian Gains Along the Surovikin Line

🎦 22:21-23:35⏩

Jonathan points out small but significant Russian gains west of Vuhledar. He emphasizes the discrepancy between Suriat Maps, which portrays Russian control of the entire Surovikin Line, and other mapping sources. He acknowledges agreement among sources on the northward movement of Russian forces in the area. Jonathan highlights that these advances close off the remaining portions of the Severodonetsk-Donetsk line and the grey zone where Ukrainian forces might be operating. He notes clarification regarding the Vuhledar area on Deep State Map, indicating potential adjustments rather than actual Russian movement in the past 24 hours. Jonathan cites the ISW, which confirms marginal Russian gains west of Vuhledar based on geolocated footage.

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Vuhledar: Increased Russian Use of FPV Drones at Night

🎦 23:35-24:02⏩

Jonathan, referring to a Ukrainian spokesperson quoted by the ISW, reports increased Russian use of first-person view (FPV) drones at night. He notes that unspecified elite Russian units are primarily focused on conducting FPV drone operations, particularly using thermal imaging capabilities. Jonathan recommends watching his previous video on FPV drone statistical analysis for more in-depth information.

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Hulyaipole: Limited Russian Attacks

🎦 24:02-24:14⏩

Jonathan briefly mentions Hulyaipole, noting minor attempted Russian attacks but no significant developments to report. He observes that all indications point towards a continued Russian offensive, despite previous discussions about a potential culmination of their efforts.

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Overall Assessment of Russian Offensive and Ukrainian Vulnerability

🎦 24:14-25:34⏩

Jonathan provides an overall assessment of the ongoing Russian offensive, acknowledging that while their ability to advance significantly might be waning, Ukrainian forces remain in a vulnerable position. He speculates that Russia's current strategy is to capitalise on Ukraine's weakness before the arrival of promised aid, particularly a potential $60 billion aid package from the US, which is reportedly readily available for deployment. Jonathan believes that Russia, despite potential limitations in troop strength and equipment, sees the current situation as an opportunity to strike while Ukraine is most vulnerable. He invites viewers to share their own perspectives on his analysis.

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Wrap up

🎦 25:34-25:37⏩

Jonathan concludes the update.

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