Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News/Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"This is a vehicle moving from A to B...If your objective is, right, we need to get from A to B and we need to protect people this is essentially a vehicle that's being used to drop off people and we need to protect them against drones that are flying in then okay as you can see in some of these videos then then okay that's fine it's done its job great it's fairly successful at getting from a to b and keeping those people alive but the question is well is this what you would expect if you had like a perfectly functioning army"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:49⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War Update video. He apologises in advance if he doesn't make much sense as he had a late one last night with "friends, games, drinks and good times"
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses for 22nd June 2024
🎦 00:49-03:08⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day, 22nd June 2024. He notes that personnel losses are up slightly to 1,270 compared to 1,100 for the previous week. There were 10 tanks, 15 armoured personnel vehicles and, significantly, 61 artillery systems lost, in addition to other equipment.
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Jonathan discusses the impact of drones on the frontline
🎦 03:08-05:33⏩
Jonathan discusses the impact of drones on the conflict, referencing a video posted by Anders Puck Nielsen about drone on drone warfare. He notes that drones provide 24/7 reconnaissance for both sides so there is no element of surprise. This gives a significant advantage to the defending forces as it is much harder to gain an advantage when attacking. Consequently, the attacking force will take higher losses. He concludes that the extended Russian offensive has been and continues to be incredibly costly in terms of equipment and personnel.
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Andrew Perpetua's equipment loss data for 22 June 2024
🎦 05:33-09:12⏩
Jonathan analyses data from Andrew Perpetua's equipment loss dataset. He starts by looking at losses by type and notes that the ratios have not been good for the Ukrainians for the past 3-4 days.
- The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is closer to 2:1 rather than the preferred (by the Ukrainians) 3:1.
- Although, the ratio for combat assets (artillery, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles) is better than other categories.
Jonathan points out that this is because Ukrainian losses include equipment such as surveillance and comms equipment in addition to civilian vehicles.
- There were significant Ukrainian losses of two P18 radars destroyed by a Russian Kh-35 missile. These radars are high value and this is a blow for the Ukrainians.
- Other Ukrainian losses include boats, a BM-21 Grad (damaged), a Humvee, and an excavator.
- On a more positive note, the ratio of damaged vs destroyed equipment is good for the Ukrainians: 1:4 compared to 3:1 for the Russians, suggesting that much of the damaged equipment can be repaired.
- Russian losses include a Pantsir S1 air defence system which Jonathan thinks was probably taken out by HIMARS.
Jonathan discusses the "tracked garden sheds" being used by the Russians
🎦 09:12-16:13⏩
Jonathan discusses the "tracked garden sheds" or "mobile garden sheds" that the Russians have been deploying, referencing a video released by the Ukrainian Army which gives details about their capabilities (or lack of).
- The video shows a T-62M tank that has been repurposed.
- The turret doesn't move and there is no ammunition, rendering it useless as a tank.
- It was taken out by drones even though it is supposed to be protected against them.
Jonathan questions the rationale of using a tank, which could be repaired and used as a tank, as a personnel carrier, especially when there are APCs that could be used (and up-armoured) instead. He concludes that it speaks of desperation on the part of the Russians.
- He makes the point that this equipment, whilst suboptimal, does the job of getting troops from A to B but this is not how a perfectly functioning army would operate.
- He concludes by stating that having to resort to deploying literal garbage "reveals once more in what condition the Russian army and the logistics behind it is", noting that the longer the war goes on, the weaker the quality of the Russian army becomes.
Jonathan discusses drone footage and Andrew Perpetua's equipment loss methodology
🎦 16:13-19:13⏩
Jonathan discusses the amount of drone footage he sees and the ratio of successful to unsuccessful drone hits. He references comments made by Andrew Perpetua who had noted that there is a misconception that only successful drone footage is published and that this isn't true. Jonathan agrees but notes that it's hard to determine what "successful" actually means, highlighting several scenarios:
- Dropping grenades into empty trenches.
- Using multiple grenades to dig a hole in the roof of a bunker.
- Grenades landing near a target, potentially causing damage but not destroying the target.
He concludes that it's even harder to determine what damage has been inflicted on fortified positions. He goes on to discuss the difficulties in determining damage to vehicles, using the example of an IED (Improvised Explosive Device) hitting an infantry fighting vehicle and not being able to determine whether the vehicle has been damaged or not. Jonathan concludes by confirming that Andrew Perpetua takes ultimate responsibility for determining destroyed vs damaged equipment in his equipment loss dataset and whilst some might disagree with his methodology, the criteria used by Andrew are consistent.
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Jonathan discusses the use of guided glide bombs
🎦 19:13-21:51⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss the increasing use of guided glide bombs by both sides. He notes that whilst the Ukrainians are using these very effectively to take out Russian targets, the Russians are using these to greater effect because of the sheer size and destructive power of the bombs they are using. He gives the example of a Russian guided bomb strike in the Kherson region.
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Overnight Russian strikes on 22 June 2024
🎦 21:51-25:23⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the overnight Russian strikes.
- Kharkiv: This city has been the target of devastating Russian strikes, although this is the first time since the Ukrainians took out Russian S-300 air defence systems in Belgorod. The strikes are significant as they are the first for a number of weeks.
- Atesh partisans have carried out a sabotage attack on a railway relay cabinet in Rostov-on-Don. This line is important as it is used by the Russians to transfer military equipment and forces between the Southern Military District.
- There were a small number of distant/standoff attacks overnight.
- Three Kalibr cruise missiles were fired at Kyiv, two were shot down.
- There was a major explosion and fire in Rostov, thought to have been caused by an exploding transformer.
- Explosions have been heard across Crimea in Sevastopol, Yalta, Balaklava. Russian sources report that the cause is Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles and air defences were activated. Jonathan is sceptical given the types of munitions being used by the Ukrainians.
- Explosions were also heard in Cossack Bay, home to the 810th Russian Black Sea Marine Brigade.
- There is a lot of activity in the Donbas region, although the source is unclear.
Jonathan discusses Russian guided bomb attack on Kharkiv on 22nd June
🎦 25:23-29:40⏩
Jonathan discusses a devastating Russian guided bomb attack on Kharkiv on the 22nd of June.
- He shows footage of the aftermath and notes that the attack took place in the middle of the city, killing civilians.
- The number of casualties is unclear (potentially 3 or 4) with at least 50 injured.
- Jonathan is unsure whether this was the intended target. There are three possibilities: the bomb was inaccurate; there was some kind of electronic warfare interference; it was intentional. He thinks it unlikely that the Ukrainians would have been able to interfere with the guidance system of the bomb.
- He notes this is the second attack and that the first attack had resulted in 56 people being injured, 41 remaining in hospital with 4 seriously injured, 3 of whom were children.
- He shows drone footage of the attack, noting that this was not a military target and that whilst air defences are able to take out S-300 missiles, they are unable to stop the guided bombs. He believes the only way to stop these attacks is to hit the air bases from where these planes are taking off from.
Jonathan discusses the Russian attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure on 21st June 2024
🎦 29:40-31:36⏩
Jonathan discusses the Russian attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure that took place on 21st June 2024.
- The attack involved 16 missiles and 13 Shahed drones targeting Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Volyn and Zaporizhzhia.
- He notes that these attacks continue to degrade Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which cannot be rebuilt quickly.
- He believes that the vulnerability of Ukrainian energy infrastructure is one of the biggest challenges they face as it impacts Ukraine's ability to defend itself, hurting its economy, limiting its ability to manufacture equipment, and affecting morale.
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukrainian attack on Yeysk airbase
🎦 31:36-32:56⏩
Jonathan provides an update about the Ukrainian attack on Yeysk airbase in Russia.
- Better quality images of the attack have now been released.
- The image shows significant damage to a hangar or warehouse and the destruction of another.
- The base is where the Iranians are training Russians to pilot Shahed drones.
Resignation of Sergey Beseda
🎦 32:56-36:40⏩
Jonathan discusses the resignation of Sergey Beseda, the Head of the 5th service of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB).
- Beseda was responsible for providing Putin with intelligence about Ukraine prior to the invasion, which turned out to be completely wrong.
- Jonathan is fascinated by this and believes that the most important aspect of the war is the decision to invade in the first place, which should never have happened. Had Putin known what would happen, he would never have invaded.
- He questions what went wrong and how they so badly misjudged the situation. He believes that there must have been problems gathering the information but also highlights the information ecosystem problem at the very top.
- He finds it fascinating that the people responsible for giving this information to Putin are only resigning now.
Discussion about constraints on Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia
🎦 36:40-42:37⏩
Jonathan discusses an Associated Press article about Ukrainian long-range strikes.
- Whilst the U.S. has expanded the scope of its policy to allow counterstrikes, it will not allow Ukraine to use U.S. provided ATACMS to strike inside Russia.
- This is a cause of frustration for the Ukrainians who want to target airfields and other military infrastructure inside Russia.
- One Ukrainian official notes "unfortunately we still cannot reach, for example, airfields and their aircraft. This is a problem...That's why we are asking allies to lift restrictions to use long-range missiles against limited military targets in the territory of Russia".
- Since May, Ukraine has been able to strike Russian troops and air defence systems 20km inside Russia (in the Kharkiv region) but this is not far enough.
- Zelensky has said that Ukraine needs the necessary forces and means to neutralise these bombs, including combat aircraft.
- He goes on to state that Ukraine urgently needs military means to counter Russian bombers. Jonathan agrees with Zelensky that Ukraine should be able to strike air bases. He believes that 8 ATACMS into Belgorod would make a difference.
Update on Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and other incidents
🎦 42:37-44:53⏩
Jonathan provides an update on a number of incidents.
- The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) has confirmed the destruction of the Luch substation which supplies power to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. It's unclear whether this was destroyed by the Ukrainians or Russians.
- There was an explosion at a thermal power plant in Kyiv. This is not related to the earlier attacks. Jonathan believes it may have been caused by instability in the power system.
- A malfunction at a Coke plant in Kryvyi Rih resulted in the city being covered in smog. A power outage was to blame.
Arseny Turbin
🎦 44:53-45:49⏩
Jonathan finishes by expressing his disgust at the news that 15 year old Russian Arseny Turbin has been sentenced to 5 years in prison for distributing anti-war leaflets in 2023.
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Wrap up
🎦 45:49-45:49⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off.
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