Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia is one of the countries that we have an interest in, in the general space, he said."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:56⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for another Ukraine War Update, explaining that he's currently on holiday but will take the opportunity to record another video update - his son has sunstroke so he is on "stay in the room and look after my son duty".
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US policy on Ukraine and deep strikes with US weapons unchanged
🎦 00:56-03:26⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent confirmation by US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller that the US policy regarding deep strikes into Russian territory using US weapons remains unchanged despite the arrival of F-16s in Ukraine. He goes on to highlight that this is in line with previous declarations and discusses John Kirby's comments requesting more information regarding the recent attacks into Kursk and the potential use of HIMARS in this offensive.
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Germany delivers IRIS-T SLM air defence system to Ukraine
🎦 03:26-04:14⏩
Jonathan reports that Germany has delivered the first of its IRIS-T SLM medium-range air defence system to Ukraine at the beginning of August, with the fifth system expected to arrive before the end of the year. Jonathan speculates that this suggests that the production schedule for the system is approximately one every quarter.
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NATO awards Raytheon $478m contract for PATRIOT missiles
🎦 04:14-05:52⏩
Jonathan reports that NATO has awarded Raytheon a $478 million contract for PATRIOT PAC-2 GEM-T missiles to replenish German army stocks following their donations to Ukraine. Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway will help to finance the deal. Jonathan notes that, while less effective against ballistic missiles, the PAC-2 has a greater range than the PAC-3, making it arguably better at taking down aircraft. Jonathan speculates that the contract is likely for more than 100 missiles given that the unit cost for MSE missiles is around $4 million and GEM-T missiles are expected to be less than that.
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Ukraine's domestic arms production is growing but lacks funding
🎦 05:52-09:47⏩
Jonathan discusses a video by Euromaiden Press outlining that Ukraine's domestic arms production is on the rise but is being held back by a lack of funds and how Western aid is helping to overcome this. Jonathan explains that Ukraine has a $10bn funding gap to reach its full production capacity and highlights Ukraine's Zbroiari initiative, which aims to raise $10bn for domestic arms manufacturers by securing contracts that utilise Western military aid. Ukraine is employing a multi-faceted diplomatic strategy for this, inviting Western partners to witness equipment tests, touring facilities and tailoring their negotiations with each ally to align with their priorities and challenges. Denmark was the first country to directly fund Ukraine's arms industry with a $170m package and Canada has since followed suit, allocating funds for Ukrainian-made drones after presentations demonstrated their benefits over foreign alternatives. Ukraine is also forming joint ventures with international defence firms, such as Germany's Rheinmetall, with plans to collaborate with US companies in the pipeline. These partnerships will see final assembly taking place in Ukrainian factories. Jonathan goes on to discuss that Ukraine faces a dilemma over arms exports. While exporting could allow Ukraine to fully utilise its production capacity, there are concerns that it could be misconstrued by Russia as Ukraine not needing military aid. Jonathan then moves on to highlight that, while Russia claims its arms industry can meet growing demand and continue exports, both international and Russian media suggest a different story with reports indicating a collapse of the Russian arms industry due to sanctions, leading to exports becoming very difficult. Jonathan speculates that this is why Russia is seeking to import weapons from North Korea.
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Russia using North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles
🎦 09:47-12:37⏩
Jonathan reports that, according to Richard Verreca from Warpod, Russia is using KN-23 ballistic missiles from North Korea, noting that around half of them malfunction due to being poorly made. Anton Geranshenko confirms that Russia used a KN-23 during strikes on 31st July that failed to reach their target and exploded over the Kyiv region, adding that this is the first recorded use of this missile by Russia in five months. Jonathan also highlights that Russia has been forced to create a new "motorised rifle regiment" from Air Force personnel, indicating that Russia is having manpower issues despite its claims to the contrary.
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Russia requests international condemnation of Ukraine's "criminal attacks"
🎦 12:37-15:54⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has appealed to the UN to condemn Ukraine's "criminal attacks" on Russian territory. He goes on to point out the hypocrisy of this request given that Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014.
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Niger breaks diplomatic relations with Ukraine
🎦 15:54-16:17⏩
Jonathan reports that Niger has broken diplomatic relations with Ukraine, following a similar move by Mali, speculating that this could be related to Ukrainian special forces supporting Malian rebels fighting Wagner forces.
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Mexico invites Putin to Presidential inauguration
🎦 16:17-17:08⏩
Jonathan reports that Mexico has invited Putin to attend the inauguration of President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum on 1st October, which is causing some concern given the ongoing war.
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UK soldiers warned of Russian espionage on Ukrainian troop training
🎦 17:08-18:26⏩
Jonathan reports that UK soldiers have been warned about potential Russian espionage targeting the training of Ukrainian troops in the UK, mirroring similar concerns elsewhere in Europe. Methods used by Russia may include drones over military bases, as well as Russian operatives attempting to approach British trainers in person or online. The report also highlights that German authorities have admitted to struggling to intercept unidentified drones seen over military training grounds.
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Russia suspected of spying in Ireland
🎦 18:26-20:03⏩
Jonathan discusses reports that Russia is suspected of spying in Ireland, with Irish officials expressing concern over hostile states' espionage activities on sovereign soil. He quotes McElgan, head of Ireland's national police force, stating that "Russia is one of the countries that we have an interest in".
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Hungary remains confident in its oil supply despite Ukraine's Lukoil transit bloc
🎦 20:03-20:30⏩
Jonathan reports that the CEO of Hungarian oil and gas giant MOL Group has said that Hungary has 90 days of oil in strategic reserves, with the option to buy crude from Russia via Croatia. This follows exasperation from EU members that Hungary and Slovakia have failed to reduce their reliance on Russian oil.
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Ukraine sees $385m surge in military bond investments in July
🎦 20:30-21:04⏩
Jonathan reports that investments in Ukrainian military bonds increased by $385m in July, with Ukraine's Finance Ministry confirming that this is a good way for the country to raise funds.
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Ukraine boosts gas production
🎦 21:04-21:31⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has boosted its gas production thanks to new wells and technology, with Naftogaz reporting a 7% increase in production for the first seven months of 2024 compared with the same period last year.
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Shipments of Russian LNG to France double in first six months of 2024
🎦 21:31-23:22⏩
Jonathan reports that, despite attempts by Europe to reduce its reliance on Russian energy, shipments of Russian LNG to France have more than doubled in the first six months of the year. While restrictions on Russian oil imports have been implemented, natural gas is still permitted. Analysis by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) indicates that EU countries imported 7% more Russian LNG in the first six months of 2024 compared with a year earlier. French companies alone imported almost 4.4 billion cubic metres in this period, compared with just over 2 billion cubic metres a year earlier.
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Analysis of the recent US-Russia prisoner exchange
🎦 23:22-27:12⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent prisoner swap between the US and Russia where Russia released twice as many prisoners as it received in return, which some commentators have argued was a bad deal for the US. However, Jonathan points out that analysis by the IISS suggests that this was, in fact, a good deal for the West. This is because seven of the sixteen prisoners released by Russia were Russian activists without dual nationality - a practice more in line with expelling dissidents. This suggests that Putin places such a high value on his spies that he is willing to agree to an uneven swap to get them back. Jonathan highlights that this actually presents an opportunity for the West, who are aware of the identities of many Russian spies but have, until now, chosen to monitor them rather than risk them returning to Russia. Now that countries are starting to arrest these spies, it could give the West leverage in future prisoner swaps.
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Hungary's visa scheme for Russian citizens could lead to suspension from Schengen zone
🎦 27:12-28:59⏩
Jonathan discusses Hungary's decision to implement a visa scheme that makes it easier for citizens of Russia and Belarus to enter the EU, sparking fears that this could allow Russian spies to enter the bloc unchecked. This has led to calls for Hungary to be suspended from the Schengen zone and a letter signed by 70 MEPs has been sent to this effect.
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Russian disinformation stokes far-right violence in the UK
🎦 28:59-31:36⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of significant activity on far-right Telegram channels from Russian accounts, which are believed to be linked to an increase in far-right violence in the UK. Jonathan highlights a recent example where Russian disinformation was used to stoke tensions around immigration, resulting in riots and violence in Southport. He stresses that the issue of immigration is often exploited by Russia to sow discord and that their disinformation campaigns are becoming increasingly sophisticated.
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Irish government plans sanctions against social media firms over disinformation
🎦 31:36-35:32⏩
Jonathan reports that the Irish government is planning sanctions against social media companies over their failure to tackle disinformation. He explains that Ireland also experienced riots as a result of disinformation around immigration, which was spread on social media. Jonathan is highly critical of Elon Musk, arguing that Twitter is now a hotbed of disinformation following Musk's decision to reduce moderation and that this is facilitating hybrid warfare. Jonathan highlights that a recent EU report identified Twitter as the worst social media platform for disinformation.
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US seeks to seize $200m from former Ukrainian PM
🎦 35:32-36:14⏩
Jonathan reports that the US Justice Department is seeking to confiscate $200m from former Ukrainian Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko which it plans to return to Ukraine. Lazarenko fled Ukraine in 1999 and was later sentenced to eight years in prison in the US for money laundering.
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Kellyanne Conway to lobby for Ukraine
🎦 36:14-38:59⏩
Jonathan discusses reports that Kellyanne Conway, former advisor to Donald Trump, will lobby for Ukraine. Funded by Ukrainian oligarch Victor Pinchuk, Conway will receive $50,000 a month to promote Ukrainian interests amongst Republicans. Jonathan goes on to discuss his stance on lobbying, explaining that, while he is generally against it, he is less opposed to Conway's appointment as she is not lobbying a lawmaker directly and it is for a good cause. However, he expresses concern that lobbying for a good cause could be viewed as a quid pro quo.
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Tim Walz, a staunch Ukraine supporter, selected as Kamala Harris' running mate
🎦 38:59-44:25⏩
Jonathan reports that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who is a staunch supporter of Ukraine, has been chosen as Kamala Harris' running mate. Jonathan believes that this is good news for Ukraine, as he has a proven track record of supporting the country. He highlights that Walz signed a law barring Minnesota from doing business with Russia and Belarus, declared 24th February "Solidarity Day with Ukraine" in the state and has met with Zelensky on several occasions to discuss support for Ukraine. In contrast, Jonathan highlights that JD Vance, Trump's presumptive pick for VP, has said that he "won't even take calls from Ukraine" and cites this as evidence that a Biden/Harris victory would be far more beneficial for Ukraine than a Trump/Vance victory. Jonathan believes that it is almost impossible to imagine a scenario where Trump could be good for Ukraine.
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Wrap up
🎦 44:25-44:42⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and says that he's now dried off from the rain he got caught in earlier and is going for a beer.
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