Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"They would regularly get hit because of their lying neighboring units they exclaimed that certain places were taken but then it turned out they actually weren't…This is called a system of red underpants it works very well you immediately see what is real and what is a fairy tale."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
Jonathan greets his viewers and notes that the video is a little later than usual because he had already created a video debunking Russian misinformation about a hospital missile attack, but YouTube restricted it and he is working on re-uploading it.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff Figures: Russian Losses 09 July
🎦 00:15-01:29⏩
Jonathan provides the daily General Staff figures for Russian losses, noting that they can be found in the video description. He observes that while the numbers are lower than in previous weeks, they remain significant. Specifically, he points out the loss of 1,100 personnel, 2 tanks, 11 armoured personnel vehicles, 36 artillery systems (double the average), 3 air defence systems, 57 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 15 pieces of special equipment. He suggests that the lower number of tanks and armoured vehicles lost could indicate fewer large-scale mechanized assaults by the Russians.
Return to top⤴️
Visually Confirmed Losses: Ukraine and Russia 09 July
🎦 01:29-04:28⏩
Jonathan discusses visually confirmed losses from the previous day (09 July) for both sides. He observes that:
- Both sides experienced roughly equal losses overall.
- Ukrainians lost more civilian vehicles, while the Russians lost more combat assets.
- Ukrainians lost fewer combat assets overall compared to the Russians and fewer were destroyed.
- A significant number of Ukrainian civilian vehicles were destroyed, likely due to an Iskander-M cluster munition strike on a depot.
- Russian losses included communications equipment, an engineering vehicle, D-20 and D-30 artillery pieces, a TOS-1A thermobaric system, and a significant number of tanks (including a T-90M, T-62s, and T-80s) that were destroyed or abandoned. He emphasizes that most of the Russian combat asset losses are irretrievable.
Visually Confirmed Losses: Ukraine and Russia 10 July
🎦 04:28-07:49⏩
Jonathan presents the visually confirmed losses for 10 July, noting:
- Ukrainian losses appear to be higher, but this is influenced by surveillance equipment and decoys, which he excludes from his analysis.
- Russian combat assets losses include artillery, a few tanks, and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs).
- The Lancet drone has been highly active and effective, particularly against Ukrainian equipment concealed in foliage.
- Ukrainian losses include a tank, three Bradleys, Western APCs, MRAPs (including Cossack 7s), and numerous civilian vehicles.
- Russian losses comprise surveillance and communications equipment, an OSA-9K air defense system, various artillery pieces (including D-30s, 2S3 Akatsiyas, and Msta-S), four tanks, five BMPs, T-72s, and civilian vehicles.
- Jonathan emphasizes the attritional nature of the conflict, with heavy losses for both sides, but notes that Ukraine has, fortunately, avoided losing high-value assets.
Russian Military Deception and Morale
🎦 07:49-12:26⏩
Jonathan cites a Julia Davis article in The Daily Beast which highlights concerns regarding dishonesty and low morale within the Russian military.
- Russian military expert, Vladislav Shurigan, reveals on Russian state TV that units are significantly understrength due to desertions and a reluctance to acknowledge casualties (using the code "500" to denote those who have fled or refused to fight).
- Commanders inflate troop numbers to avoid repercussions, leading to unrealistic military objectives and subsequent failures.
- Russian state TV host Vladimir Solovyov, known for his pro-Putin stance, admits that Russian commanders have falsely claimed to have captured Ukrainian towns and villages. He describes a "system of red underpants" where drone surveillance is used to verify troop positions.
- Solovyov cites an instance where former Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu falsely assured Putin that the village of Krinky had been taken, only for it to take six months to actually secure.
- Shoigu expresses frustration at the lack of significant breakthroughs on the front lines, attributing it to various factors. He also laments the division within Russian society, with some actively supporting the war effort while others choose to ignore it.
Russian Equipment Deficiencies and Ukrainian Countermeasures
🎦 12:26-13:16⏩
Jonathan discusses examples of apparent Russian military ineptitude and Ukrainian countermeasures:
- A Russian Telegram source reports that Ukrainian forces discovered empty anti-drone jammers on captured Russian vehicles. This is not the first such report, suggesting systemic corruption or incompetence within the Russian military supply chain.
- A fire breaks out at a recyclable materials processing warehouse in the Russian city of Volgograd, highlighting the continued occurrence of unexplained fires within Russia.
Russian Missile and Drone Attacks
🎦 13:16-17:21⏩
Jonathan provides an update on recent Russian missile and drone attacks:
- Ukrainian air defense systems intercepted 14 out of 20 Shahed drones, but failed to intercept any of the Iskander-M or KH-59/69 missiles.
- Three KH-59s and three more Shaheds were allegedly neutralized by electronic warfare, though the source is unverified. If accurate, this would mean only two missiles (one KH-59 and one Iskander-M) and three drones reached their intended targets.
- Jonathan expresses concern over reports of strikes in Odessa, noting the city is frequently targeted. He speculates that a reported field fire near Chornomorsk might be the result of a strike on a Ukrainian air defense battery.
- Residents of Rostov-on-Don reported drone attacks, but details remain scarce.
- Ukrainian drones caused a fire at the Rostov-Skoye electrical substation, inflicting significant damage, including the destruction of two transformers.
- Numerous Ukrainian drones were sighted near Znamensk and Akhtubinsk in the Astrakhan region, home to a major military training ground and airfield. Ukrainian sources claim a successful strike on the assembly and testing building (Site 105) at the Kapustin Yar test range.
- A substation in Sudzha, Kursk region, caught fire after a suspected Ukrainian drone attack.
Melitopol Air Base Attack Aftermath
🎦 17:21-18:07⏩
Jonathan reviews the aftermath of the Ukrainian attack on the Melitopol air base three days prior, noting satellite images reveal extensive scorch marks, indicating significant damage. While there were reports of a hit on an air defense complex, these remain unconfirmed.
Return to top⤴️
Kalach-on-Don Oil Depot Attack Aftermath
🎦 18:07-19:27⏩
Jonathan shows satellite images of the Kalach-on-Don oil depot that was attacked by Ukrainian drones, confirming the earlier reports of a major fire. He points out the accuracy of the strikes, with two fuel tanks hit. Images of the interior of a medical building in the Nemyshlyanskyi district of Kharkiv, hit during the same wave of attacks that targeted the children's hospital, highlight the devastating impact of these attacks.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Russian Cruise Missile Tactics
🎦 19:27-21:46⏩
Jonathan analyzes footage of Russian cruise missile attacks, focusing on their flight path and potential explanations:
- He addresses earlier speculation that the missiles striking the hospital were ballistic missiles based on their steep descent angle, but confirms they were likely KH-101 cruise missiles adapted to fly at extremely low altitudes (below 50 meters) to evade radar detection.
- He cites information from Ukrainian sources claiming the missiles were flying at this low altitude, which initially seemed improbable.
- However, after examining footage of the attacks and consulting with military experts (specifically mentioning Dom Nicholls), he concludes that the missiles likely employ a tactic where they fly at very low altitudes for most of their trajectory to avoid detection and then ascend briefly before entering a steep dive to strike their targets with increased kinetic energy.
- He shows footage of two cruise missiles flying remarkably low over the Caspian Sea, demonstrating the difficulty of detecting and intercepting missiles at such low altitudes.
Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Oil Refining
🎦 21:46-22:22⏩
Jonathan highlights the success of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, reporting that a NATO official has confirmed a 17% decrease in Russian oil refining capacity as a result of these attacks. He emphasizes that these strikes are ongoing and having a significant impact on Russia's war economy.
Return to top⤴️
NATO Assessment of Russian Military Capabilities
🎦 22:22-23:31⏩
Jonathan discusses a Reuters article that cites a senior NATO official's assessment of Russia's military capabilities, noting:
- Russia currently lacks the munitions and troops necessary for a major offensive in Ukraine and would require significant external support to amass the required resources.
- Russia is estimated to be able to sustain its war economy for another three to four years.
- Similarly, Ukraine will need time to gather the necessary munitions and personnel before it can launch any large-scale counteroffensives.
- Jonathan concludes that the conflict will likely continue as a war of attrition for the foreseeable future, with both sides making incremental gains at a high cost.
Russia Issues Arrest Warrant for Yulia Navalnaya
🎦 23:31-23:56⏩
Jonathan reports that Yulia Navalnaya, wife of imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, has been charged in absentia with participating in an extremist organization and an arrest warrant has been issued. He notes the politically motivated nature of these charges and speculates that Ms. Navalnaya is unlikely to return to Russia, as her husband did, only to be immediately arrested.
Return to top⤴️
UK's Stance on Long-Range Missile Strikes
🎦 23:56-28:08⏩
Jonathan discusses a significant development in UK policy towards the war in Ukraine:
- New Prime Minister Keir Starmer has publicly stated that Ukraine can use British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets within Russia, confirming the continuation of the previous government's policy. While this has sparked excitement, it remains unclear how this differs from the previous stance.
- Starmer emphasizes that the missiles must be used in accordance with international law and for defensive purposes, leaving the definition of "defensive" open to interpretation.
- The Kremlin condemned the statement as "very dangerous."
- Jonathan delves into the complexities of the situation, raising questions about potential US influence on the use of allied weaponry by Ukraine and whether the Storm Shadow missiles, while possessing a long range, are the most effective weapons for striking certain targets, such as airfields.
- He highlights that UK policy may still restrict the use of Storm Shadows to targets within Crimea and mainland Ukraine, citing a previous statement from the UK's Chief of the Defence Staff limiting their use.
- Jonathan concludes that while Starmer's statement is rhetorically strong, it remains to be seen whether it represents a genuine policy shift and if it will have a tangible impact on the battlefield.
Russian Disinformation Campaign Disrupted
🎦 28:08-30:51⏩
Jonathan discusses a recent report about a Russian disinformation campaign that was disrupted by US and Dutch authorities:
- A Dutch newspaper revealed that Dutch intelligence services, in collaboration with US authorities, helped dismantle a Russian influence campaign operating from a server in the Netherlands.
- The US Department of Justice exposed over 100 bot accounts linked to this campaign, revealing their efforts to spread disinformation and manipulate public opinion in the US.
- Jonathan highlights the use of generative AI in creating these bot accounts, which often impersonate US citizens to amplify pre-existing messages and create original content designed to sow discord.
- He connects this campaign to previous allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election and the UK's 2016 Brexit referendum.
- The bot farm, allegedly funded by the Kremlin and operated in conjunction with Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), used US-based domain names, violating US law.
- Twitter has since suspended the identified accounts.
- Jonathan applauds the efforts of the US Department of Justice and the FBI in exposing and neutralizing this disinformation network.
Suspicious Death of Russian Army General
🎦 30:51-32:06⏩
Jonathan reports the death of Army General Magomed Kandayev, who died in Moscow at 62. Notably, Kandayev was a high-ranking official in the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) and worked under Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov, who was recently arrested.
- Kandayev is alleged to have been involved in a massive embezzlement scheme within the MoD, with estimates suggesting over $100 billion was stolen over several years.
- Jonathan posits that Kandayev's death could be the result of foul play, suggesting he might have been eliminated to silence him and protect those higher up in the alleged corruption scheme.
UN Security Council Meeting and Russian Insensitivity
🎦 32:06-33:02⏩
Jonathan expresses outrage over the Russian delegation's behavior during a recent UN Security Council meeting:
- Ukraine called for an emergency UN Security Council meeting to address the targeting of a Ukrainian children's hospital.
- During the meeting, which coincided with Russia's rotating presidency of the UN Security Council, the Russian delegation organized a luncheon and chose to serve "Chicken Kiev."
- Jonathan criticizes the Russians' choice of menu, deeming it insensitive and a display of "bad faith trolling" considering the gravity of the situation.
Wrap Up
🎦 33:02-33:08⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking his viewers for watching and asking them to like, subscribe, and share the content.
Return to top⤴️
