Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, It's up to the AFU Now
Table of Contents 📖
"But as of today, we see that most likely human resources are among the cheapest for Russia."
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:57⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the Ukraine War News Update, part 1. He explains that he has already released two breaking news updates this morning due to the high volume of news. He notes that information from usual frontline sources is limited today as attention is focused on geopolitical and political information spaces, particularly regarding the United States and Ukraine. Despite less frontline data, he assures viewers that the news cycle remains very busy.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian personnel and equipment losses
🎦 00:57-02:48⏩
Jonathan reviews the Russian losses reported by the General Staff of Ukraine:
- Personnel: 1,140
- Tanks: 15 (more than IFVs lost again, speculating tracked garden sheds being used as APCs due to IFV shortages)
- Troop carrying air fleets: 9 (below daily average)
- Artillery Systems: 66 (phenomenally high number)
- MLRS & Anti-Aircraft Warfare Systems: 0 (shame as recent good haul)
- Drones: Very high number (consistent nightly waves of Shahid drones)
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 139 (very high number)
- Special Equipment: 1
He notes the consistently high losses for Russia and highlights some interesting category data requiring further analysis.
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Gubarev's accusation of genocide against Russian men in storm units
🎦 02:48-05:24⏩
Jonathan discusses collaborator Gubarev's accusation that the Russian command is committing "genocide against Russian men". Gubarev highlights the massive losses in storm units, revealing that in one unit of 214 mobilised ex-convicts, only 30 remained after a month of fighting. Jonathan reads a translated quote from Gubarev detailing his conversation with two imprisoned storm unit members in Donetsk. The men explained that storm units treat soldiers as cannon fodder, with units being replenished every 1-2 months due to horrific losses. One soldier reported his 240-man unit was reduced to 30 in a month. Jonathan interprets this as a damning indictment of Russia's actions and the brutal reality faced by these units. He notes that some convicts re-offend to get re-imprisoned as a survival strategy, considering it luckier than their likely fate in the storm units, although this may not always work as some are just put in Zindans or tied to trees. He clarifies that not all Russian forces are convict storm units and some are capable, but there is a clear problem with Russian attrition.
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Rumour of Ukrainian Bayraktar drone shooting down Russian Tu-95MS Bear over Caspian Sea
🎦 05:24-06:44⏩
Jonathan discusses an unconfirmed rumour from two days prior about a Ukrainian Bayraktar drone shooting down a Russian Tu-95MS Bear missile carrier over the Caspian Sea. He speculates this would be a logical Ukrainian strategy: equipping Bayraktar drones with air-to-air missiles to target Russian missile carriers in the Caspian Sea, exploiting predictable flight paths. He expresses scepticism due to lack of confirmation from his usual sources but acknowledges the plausibility of such an attack given the capabilities of long-range drones.
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71st Jäger Brigade repelling Russian mechanized attack in Prokrosk direction
🎦 06:44-07:11⏩
Jonathan mentions video footage showing the Ukrainian 71st Jäger Brigade repelling a large Russian mechanised attack in the Prokrosk direction. He notes that several pieces of heavy equipment were destroyed, indicating ongoing frontline action and material losses, supporting the General Staff figures.
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Fire in Rostov waste paper warehouse
🎦 07:11-07:58⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a large fire and smoke plume in Rostov, Russia, engulfing a waste paper warehouse. He references Tim White's comment about "Russia on fire" being pleasing to some viewers. Russian sources claim a drone was repelled in the area but deny it is linked to the fire. The warehouse roof collapsed, and the blaze covered around 2 square metres. Jonathan shows MAX24 video footage of the fire, describing it as significant.
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Ukrainian air defence shooting down/suppressing Russian drones
🎦 07:58-09:07⏩
Jonathan reports limited information on distance strikes or Ukrainian strikes into Russia. He then discusses Ukrainian air defence actions, reporting that out of 162 Russian Shahed drones:
- 82 were shot down
- 75 were suppressed by electronic warfare
- 5 got through
He considers this a good interception rate but warns against complacency, as even 5 successful strikes per night accumulate to 150 per month, posing a significant cumulative challenge.
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Drone strikes in Dnipropetrovsk and Kropivnitsky
🎦 09:07-10:16⏩
Jonathan, citing Tim White, reports a drone hit on a business in Kamyanskoye (Dnipropetrovsk region), causing a fire that was extinguished. A kindergarten, houses, and cars were also damaged. Another drone hit Kropyvnytskyi. Limited details on the Kropyvnytskyi strike suggest it may have been a sensitive target, but there are no reported casualties. Jonathan notes that silence about targets often indicates sensitivity.
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SBU drone strike on Nova Ilyichkovskaya oil pumping station in Krasnodar Krai
🎦 10:16-11:28⏩
Jonathan reports on a delayed report of an SBU drone strike from a few nights prior (possibly 20th Feb). The strike targeted the Nova Ilyichkovskaya oil pumping station in Krasnodar Krai, a key station for oil transport to the Kuban region, supplying the Afipsky and Ilyichkovskaya refineries (which were also reportedly hit). The drones hit the electrical substation powering the pumping station (110, 35, 10 kilovolt), causing a fire, complete power outage, and emergency stop to oil pumping. Jonathan highlights that targeting electrical infrastructure supporting oil infrastructure can achieve similar outcomes to directly hitting oil facilities. He explains that delayed reporting and lack of footage are common for strikes on remote or sensitive installations.
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ISW summary - Russia's advances slowed, manpower/equipment losses, Ukraine FPV drones, donkeys used for ammo transport, glide bombs, infantry issues
🎦 11:28-13:28⏩
Jonathan introduces a summary of an Institute for the Study of War (ISW) fact sheet on Ukraine, US vs European aid, and other aspects of the war, referencing Michael White's recommendation. Key points from ISW and Jonathan's commentary:
- Slowed Russian Advances: Russian territorial gains significantly decreased from 28 sq km/day in November to 0.5 sq km/day in January.
- Russian Losses: Severe manpower and equipment losses are impacting Russia.
- Ukrainian FPV Drones: Ukraine's domestically produced FPV drones, including fibre optic wire-guided versions to evade EW, are causing Russia greater pain.
- Donkeys for Ammunition: There are reports and videos of Russian soldiers using donkeys to transport ammunition to the front lines, indicating logistical strains.
- Russian Capabilities: Russia still possesses formidable capabilities, especially glide bombs and drones, including fibre-optic FPVs.
- Poor Russian Infantry and Command: Jack Watling (RUSI) argues the Russian military is underperforming due to poor infantry quality and lack of lower-level command and control.
ISW summary - Time to capture remaining Ukrainian territory - 83 years at current pace
🎦 13:28-13:55⏩
Continuing the ISW summary, Jonathan highlights the slow pace of Russian advance. ISW estimates that at the current rate, it would take Russia 83 years to capture the remaining 80% of Ukraine it does not currently occupy. Jonathan jokes about the improbability of even Donald Trump being president in 83 years and a humorous aside about Elon Musk. He notes that devastating Ukrainian positions with bombs and drones is different from exploiting and holding captured terrain.
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ISW summary - Ukrainian elections and potential candidates
🎦 13:55-14:32⏩
Jonathan discusses the ISW summary point about Ukrainian elections. He notes that elections cannot be held under martial law according to the Ukrainian constitution. He mentions potential rivals to Zelensky in a hypothetical election, including Valery Zaluzhny (former Commander-in-Chief, now Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK) and Petro Poroshenko (former President). He also mentions Viktor Medvedchuk, the pro-Russian politician swapped for prisoners, suggesting he was likely intended to be a puppet leader if Russia's initial plans had succeeded.
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Initial Russian SMO vs War
🎦 14:32-17:15⏩
Jonathan addresses a challenge he received regarding his description of the conflict. He reiterates his belief that Russia initially launched a "special military operation" (SMO), not a full-scale war. He argues that initial Russian kit (Rosgvardia riot police equipment, 5-day rations, parade uniforms) and captured plans suggest a limited 3-day operation to overthrow the government and install a puppet regime. The aim was to quickly seize Kyiv and replace the government, not to occupy the entire country initially. He posits that the SMO failed quickly, turning into a war within days due to Ukrainian resistance and poor Russian planning, especially underestimating Ukrainian political will and societal unity. He emphasizes the propaganda aspect of continuing to call it an SMO now, but believes it was initially a genuine SMO in the first couple of days.
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Sovereign Ukrainian matter
🎦 17:15-17:45⏩
Jonathan asserts that the matter of Ukrainian leadership and elections is a sovereign Ukrainian issue, not to be decided by the US, Russia, or other external actors. He transitions to discussing European support for Ukraine, stating that Europe already spends more on Ukraine than the US and will need to sustain most, if not all, security assistance if US aid diminishes.
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US aid to Ukraine - majority spent domestically, oversight by GAO and DOD IG
🎦 17:45-21:38⏩
Jonathan discusses US aid to Ukraine, referencing ISW and Donald Trump's recent speech where Trump accurately stated the US has spent $100 billion on Ukraine (contrary to inflated figures previously cited). Jonathan points out that Trump has now been briefed on the matter. He cites ISW's point that most US funds allocated for Ukraine stay in the US, funding domestic defence industry, replenishing US stockpiles. He references analysis from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a right-wing free market think tank (contrasting it with the more theologically driven Heritage Foundation, which is less pro-Ukraine), which supports this view. He refutes Trump's "wholly imaginary claim" that half of US Ukraine aid is stolen, arguing the real "den of thieves" would be in the US if this were true. He addresses Ukrainian corruption, acknowledging it as a problem widely discussed in Ukraine, with Ukrainian civil society and law enforcement actively working to expose it. He mentions a recent case of a $40 million embezzlement scheme in a defence company intended for mortar rounds. He argues that wartime exigencies and EU candidacy requirements are accelerating anti-corruption efforts, as stealing from the front lines is now seen as treason. He highlights US oversight protocols, mentioning the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the Department of Defense Inspector General (DOD IG), which regularly examine US security assistance to Ukraine, making their reports publicly available. He references a media.defense.gov report with recommendations for further improvements. He thanks Michael Weiss for insightful information.
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Ukrainian corruption
🎦 21:38-22:54⏩
This topic title is a duplicate of the previous topic's summary and has been merged into topic 15 as it is a continuation of the same discussion of US aid and oversight related to corruption.
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Georgie Revishevili - Ukraine partners not ready for modern warfare, human resources cheap for Russia, AFU guarantor of security
🎦 22:54-23:11⏩
Jonathan quotes Georgie Revishevili, who argues that Ukraine's partners are not ready for modern warfare and are still stuck in a February 2022 mindset, despite the drastically changed battlefield situation and evolved warfare rules by summer 2023. Revishevili admits his mistake in initially believing Russian losses would force Moscow to abandon the war. He now believes human resources are cheap for Russia, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) are and will remain the most reliable guarantor of Ukraine's security, whether or not Ukraine joins NATO.
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Russian advances near Karakova front
🎦 23:11-23:21⏩
Jonathan reports concerning news from the Karakova front, stating that Russian forces have fully occupied Ulakli (or a small village of that name) and most of Andreevka (a more important logistical hub town) and the area north of it. They are pushing towards Kostiantynopil, with fighting reported on the southern outskirts of the village, indicating a negative situation on this part of the front.
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Jane Keough - Russia GDP size comparison to US, Trump MAGA
🎦 23:21-24:31⏩
Jonathan includes a "little rant" and then quotes Jane Keough who highlights that Russia's GDP is only 6% the size of the US GDP, contrasting this with Trump's MAGA promises of economic prosperity for his supporters.
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Ilya Ponomarenko - Starlink cut off risk for Ukraine, regardless of rare earth deal
🎦 24:31-25:10⏩
Jonathan quotes Ilya Ponomarenko (formerly of the Kyiv Independent) who suggests it is only a matter of time before Starlink is cut off for Ukraine, even if the rare earth metal contract deal Jonathan discussed in a previous breaking news update goes through. Ponomarenko believes Starlink will be cut off in the future regardless of any deals due to political or other reasons, despite being paid for by the US Congress-approved budget and benefiting 40,000 Ukrainian users and backers.
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Russia abandoning power plant modernization
🎦 25:10-25:42⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has abandoned the modernisation of its power plants due to lack of money and equipment, according to media reports. Interfax reported that the Russian government has allowed companies to abandon modernisation of over a dozen power plants. Jonathan argues this highlights Russia's precarious financial and economic position and reinforces why the US should be aggressively putting pressure on Russia to hasten its collapse, rather than pressuring Ukraine. He expresses disbelief at the current US approach.
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Anne Applebaum - Trump claim to convince Putin to return abducted children, ignorance of the issue
🎦 25:42-29:46⏩
Jonathan discusses Anne Applebaum's report on Donald Trump's claim that he can convince Putin to return abducted Ukrainian children. He plays a clip from Brian Kilmeade's radio show where Trump claims he "didn't know too much about it" until "yesterday" (the day before recording). Jonathan criticises Trump's ignorance, noting that the deportation of Ukrainian children is a war crime and the reason for Putin's International Criminal Court arrest warrant. He expresses astonishment that Trump was unaware of this fundamental aspect of the war until recently, questioning his suitability to understand or address the Ukraine conflict, stating Trump "doesn't give one rat's ass about Ukraine" and "doesn't know enough about Ukraine to care".
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Modern hunter in Ukraine
🎦 29:46-30:39⏩
Jonathan concludes with a humorous clip depicting a "modern hunter in Ukraine" returning home with a downed drone, presented as if it were game for dinner. This is used as a lighthearted closing image after the more serious news and analysis.
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Wrap up
🎦 30:39-30:40⏩
Jonathan signs off, thanking viewers and saying "Take care, guys. Speak soon."
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
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