Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News

"If Russia were to stop fighting, Russia would survive. If Ukraine were to stop fighting, Ukraine would cease to exist. So it's existential for Ukraine, but not for Russia. But it's existential for Putin and not for Zelensky."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:17⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video on the war in Ukraine. He explains that this video will provide an update on the latest news from the 17th June 2024 and that it is the first part.

Return to top⤴️

Ukrainian General Staff Report Daily Losses

🎦 00:17-02:32⏩

Jonathan reviews the daily equipment losses reported by the Ukrainian General staff, noting that Russian personnel losses are just over 1000 for the second day in a row. Jonathan observes that this figure has remained relatively stable over the past week. Other notable figures include the loss of two Russian tanks after a day with no losses. Armoured personnel vehicle losses are at 18, lower than the previous month but still above average. Artillery system losses are down to 14, well below average. Jonathan speculates that this could be due to a weekend effect, or that the Ukrainians are not as pressured. Jonathan also notes that vehicle and fuel tank losses are very low at 24, while special equipment losses are high at 12, but that this category is difficult to interpret. He concludes that the overall picture may indicate that the Russians are not pushing as hard on the front lines as they have been, suggesting a possible culmination of their offensive, though he acknowledges they are still attacking in some areas.

Return to top⤴️

Oryx Daily Losses

🎦 02:32-08:15⏩

Jonathan reviews the equipment losses reported by Oryx noting that it shows parity between Ukrainian and Russian losses - a rarity since the beginning of the Russian offensive in Kharkiv. He points out that the offensive has been infantry-heavy, resulting in high personnel losses for Russia but relatively low equipment losses. However, he emphasizes that Russia has suffered significant equipment losses in other sectors. Jonathan then provides a detailed analysis of specific Ukrainian equipment losses, including an AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar and a M777 howitzer, both destroyed by Lancet loitering munitions. He discusses the variable damage capabilities of Lancet drones, noting that their impact on towed howitzers can be difficult to assess compared to self-propelled howitzers, which often result in more obvious destruction. He explains that the vulnerability of towed howitzers depends on the location of ammunition, as a hit to the towing mechanism might not be as damaging as a hit to the loading system. Jonathan emphasizes that self-propelled howitzers are more likely to be completely destroyed due to ammunition stored on board. Jonathan highlights the significance of the destruction of a Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicle carrying mines, emphasizing the impact of such losses on Ukrainian operations. He then shifts his attention to the northern front, specifically around Vovchansk, where he observes an increased frequency of excavator losses. He attributes this to the ongoing fighting in settlements north of Vovchansk, where Russian forces have been establishing fortifications, making excavators vulnerable targets.

Return to top⤴️

Intense fighting in Kharkiv - Both sides using Guided Glide Bombs

🎦 08:15-10:26⏩

Jonathan discusses the heavy use of guided glide bombs by both Ukrainian and Russian forces in the Kharkiv region. He cites a Russian source that describes the intensity of fighting in the region, highlighting the use of over 100 FAB (Unified Aviation Bombs) per day by Russian forces, primarily targeting Ukrainian rear areas and troop concentrations. The source also acknowledges the effectiveness of Ukrainian-deployed Hammer guided bombs, noting that their secondary guidance systems, believed to be inertial, make them difficult to counter with electronic warfare. Jonathan agrees with the Russian source's assessment, acknowledging the effectiveness of Hammer bombs for Ukrainian forces while also noting the significant threat posed by Russia's own extensive use of guided glide bombs. Jonathan then presents footage of what appears to be TOS-1A thermobaric multiple launch rocket system or a UPKB glide bomb strikes in Vovchansk, underscoring the destructive firepower being employed by both sides in the area.

Return to top⤴️

Russian Equipment Shortages - BRDM-2s and BMP-3s

🎦 10:26-13:53⏩

Jonathan highlights potential Russian equipment shortages, citing the deployment of 1960s-era BRDM-2 armoured scout cars as infantry mobility vehicles in the Sokhol area, north of the Avdiivka salient. He questions whether this decision is tactical or driven by necessity, concluding that the latter seems more plausible given that these outdated vehicles are being used instead of more modern infantry fighting vehicles like the BMP-3. Jonathan emphasizes that the use of such outdated equipment strongly suggests significant Russian equipment losses. He points to the presence of ATVs, golf carts, and a BRDM on the losses list as further evidence of these shortages, questioning the logic of using such inadequate vehicles in combat situations when better options should be available. He then notes the destruction of four BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, three destroyed and one abandoned, emphasizing the significance of this loss. He states that satellite imagery analysis indicates that Russia has completely depleted its BMP-3 reserves, leaving them with approximately 1,200 BMP-1s in questionable condition. This, he argues, presents a bleak outlook for Russian stockpiles and their ability to sustain the war effort. Jonathan highlights the rarity of documented BRDM-2 losses, noting that only 12 had been recorded by Oryx and seven visually confirmed before this incident. This, he suggests, is because these vehicles are outdated and primarily used by separatist forces in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions who likely received them as hand-me-downs or had them available before the conflict escalated. He reiterates that the deployment of BRDM-2s is a clear indication of Russia's dwindling equipment reserves and their growing desperation to maintain their combat capabilities.

Return to top⤴️

Russian Personnel Losses - BRDM-2 Casualties

🎦 13:53-16:46⏩

Jonathan, citing information from Andrew Perpetua, reports that the crew of the previously mentioned BRDM-2 were killed when the vehicle was hit. This leads him to a broader discussion about the often-overlooked human cost associated with equipment losses. He emphasizes that behind every destroyed tank or armoured vehicle, there are likely casualties, including deaths and injuries. Jonathan argues that even though daily equipment loss numbers might appear low, the human impact is significant. He recounts a disturbing image he saw of a first-person view drone strike on a tank crowded with soldiers, resulting in a massive explosion and highlighting the potential for high casualties from a single strike. Jonathan concludes that equipment loss lists, while informative, should also serve as a reminder of the human cost of the war, emphasizing that each destroyed vehicle represents potential loss of life. He then transitions to discuss a failed Russian attack in Nova Mykhailivka, on the eastern front, where Russian forces attempted to storm Ukrainian positions with a mechanized column. The attack, according to the 72nd Brigade, resulted in the loss of one tank, four BMPs, and one MTLB, totalling six vehicles. In addition to these equipment losses, an unspecified number of Russian infantry soldiers were killed during the assault. Jonathan uses this incident to underscore his previous point about the correlation between vehicle losses and personnel losses. He acknowledges that while this specific attack involved a relatively small number of vehicles, it still likely resulted in significant casualties. He contrasts this with recent trends, where Russian attacks have often involved only a handful of vehicles. Jonathan points out that even when Russians deploy a larger number of vehicles, such as in Mariinka where they lost 14 out of 19 vehicles, the loss ratio remains unsustainable. This, he suggests, indicates that while the Russians might be stockpiling resources for larger, more impactful attacks, their overall strategy remains flawed and their ability to effectively utilize these resources is questionable.

Return to top⤴️

Ukraine Captures Russian Turtle Tank

🎦 16:46-17:57⏩

Jonathan reports the capture of a Russian "turtle tank", fitted with makeshift armour, by the 22nd Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine. This, he suggests, will be valuable intelligence for Ukrainian forces, as they will be able to study the design and technology employed. He jokingly describes it as "Russian nanotechnology" that will be transferred to NATO headquarters for research purposes, highlighting the absurdity of the situation and the often-improvised nature of Russian military equipment.

Return to top⤴️

Russian Strela-10 Misses Ukrainian Drone

🎦 17:57-19:48⏩

Jonathan shows footage of a Russian Strela-10, a Soviet-era short-range air defense system, narrowly missing a Ukrainian drone. He describes the footage as "incredible," likening it to a photoshopped image, but emphasizes its authenticity. The footage, he argues, underscores the challenges of targeting small drones, even with dedicated air defense systems, or raises questions about the effectiveness of the equipment being used by both sides. Jonathan notes that this is not an isolated incident, stating that he has seen several instances of Strela-10 systems failing to hit their targets. He then shares a tweet from Ukraine Weapons Tracker that corroborates his point, describing a similar incident where a Russian 9M37 surface-to-air missile from a Strela-10 system narrowly missed a Ukrainian drone. He plays the footage, providing commentary and emphasizing how difficult it is to shoot down these small drones, particularly given their prevalence in the conflict zone. He highlights the dilemma faced by Russian forces who are forced to expend expensive missiles to target these relatively inexpensive drones, knowing that failure to do so could lead to the drone either directing artillery fire against the Strela-10 or attacking it directly with explosives.

Return to top⤴️

Russian Railway Sabotage in Smolensk

🎦 19:48-20:31⏩

Jonathan reports on acts of sabotage carried out by partisans in the Smolensk region of Russia. The partisans targeted railway infrastructure, including a relay cabinet and a section of track, causing disruptions to a key transport corridor connecting central Russia to its northwestern regions. This corridor is crucial for Russian logistics, facilitating the transportation of military equipment from central regions to the front lines in Ukraine. It is also vital for the operations of major Russian companies such as Transneft, Gazprom, and Rostec. Jonathan celebrates the success of these acts of sabotage, noting their impact on Russian logistical operations. He expresses his hope that such activities will continue and further hinder the Russian war effort.

Return to top⤴️

Fire at Moscow Car Wash

🎦 20:31-20:52⏩

Jonathan sarcastically highlights a fire that broke out at a car wash in Moscow, jokingly suggesting that the establishment was "trying to denazify itself." He points out that this incident is just another example of the seemingly frequent fires occurring in Russia, particularly in the Moscow region, and questions whether these events are a sign of deeper issues within the country.

Return to top⤴️

Ukrainian Drone Strikes in Belgorod, Voronezh, and Lipetsk

🎦 20:52-22:43⏩

Jonathan discusses a series of overnight Ukrainian drone attacks on military facilities in the Belgorod, Voronezh, and Lipetsk regions of Russia. The targets included a metallurgical plant and a tractor factory, both allegedly repurposed for military production. Jonathan explains that tractor factories are often used to manufacture or repair BMP infantry fighting vehicles. He cites military analyst Tim White, who reported that three Ukrainian drones were shot down. Jonathan then focuses on Belgorod, which appears to have been targeted by both artillery and missile strikes. Of particular note, he mentions reports of an ammunition depot being hit, evidenced by large plumes of smoke. Speculation arises regarding the contents of the depot, with some reports claiming it housed Iranian ammunition, including Shahed drones or missiles and artillery shells. Jonathan acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding the location of some strikes, noting conflicting reports that place them in either the Rostov region or Lipetsk, suggesting inaccuracies in the available information.

Return to top⤴️

Russian 1500kg Thermobaric Bomb Strike in Lyman

🎦 22:43-24:02⏩

Jonathan shares footage of an explosion in an unidentified town, speculating that it was caused by a strike on electrical infrastructure, possibly a substation. The footage shows the town lit up before the explosion plunges it into darkness. Jonathan then turns to the use of a 1,500-kilogram thermobaric bomb by Russian forces in Lyman. He describes the scale of the explosion as "incredibly challenging" for Ukrainian forces and emphasizes the devastating impact of such large thermobaric munitions. He reminds viewers that Lyman, previously recaptured by Ukraine during their successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv, is now facing renewed pressure from Russian forces, a development he finds "a real shame" given the city's presumed attempts to return to normalcy.

Return to top⤴️

Reduced Russian Cruise Missile Use - Effectiveness and Relocation of Naval Base

🎦 24:02-27:42⏩

Jonathan addresses the noticeable decline in Russian cruise missile attacks. He revisits his previous analysis regarding the damage inflicted on Russian cruise missile loading facilities in Sevastopol, forcing their fleet to relocate to Novorossiysk. Although there were initial limitations at Novorossiysk for loading cruise missiles onto submarines and warships, new claims suggest that Russia has since addressed this issue by constructing the necessary infrastructure. This, he argues, could potentially explain the recent decrease in cruise missile attacks - the Russians might be temporarily limited in their ability to launch these weapons. Jonathan then presents an alternative explanation for the reduced cruise missile use, citing Russian military spokesman Platenchuk, who attributes it to their decreased effectiveness. Platenchuk asserts that Ukrainian air defenses have significantly improved since the beginning of the conflict, making it more difficult for Russian cruise missiles to reach their targets. He posits that Russia now primarily utilizes Kalibr cruise missiles in combined missile attacks, alongside other weapons systems like drones and ballistic missiles, to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. This tactic, he suggests, aims to deplete Ukraine's stock of interceptors, allowing other, more advanced missiles to penetrate defenses. Jonathan examines this claim, analyzing data on Russian missile launches. He questions whether this data supports Platenchuk's assertion, noting the need for a more comprehensive analysis to confirm a shift from individual Kalibr cruise missile strikes to their use primarily in large-scale, combined assaults. He hypothesizes that the decrease in Kalibr cruise missile use could also be attributed to Russia diversifying its missile arsenal, opting for weapons systems deemed more likely to overcome Ukrainian defenses. These include Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, Iskander ballistic missiles, and Kh-69 anti-ship missiles. He concludes that while the exact reasons for the reduction in cruise missile use remain unclear, the combination of logistical challenges, increased Ukrainian air defense capabilities, and a shift in Russian missile deployment strategies likely plays a significant role.

Return to top⤴️

Russia Increases Taxes to Finance War

🎦 27:42-29:13⏩

Jonathan discusses Russia's decision to increase taxes to finance the ongoing war in Ukraine, citing British intelligence reports. The tax hikes, projected to generate approximately $29 billion in additional revenue by 2025, include a significant increase in the corporate income tax rate from 20% to 25%, which he emphasizes is a substantial 25% increase, not just a 5% increase as it may initially appear. Additionally, the highest corporate tax rate will surge from 15% to 22%. Jonathan argues that these drastic measures highlight the economic strain the war has placed on Russia and their struggle to fund it. He sees this as further evidence that Russia's decision to invade Ukraine was a strategic blunder, leading to dire economic consequences and national instability.

Return to top⤴️

Recruitment of Foreign Fighters - Somali Mercenary's Account

🎦 29:13-33:42⏩

Jonathan discusses Russia's increasing reliance on foreign fighters, highlighting the case of a captured Somali mercenary. He cites the mercenary's account, which reveals the ease with which foreigners can obtain tourist visas to Russia, suggesting that the process has been expedited due to Russia's desperation for manpower. The mercenary's testimony reveals the prevalence of advertisements for military service within Russia, many disguised as opportunities within security organizations. He explains that many foreigners, unaware of the ongoing war and focused on economic prospects, are lured by promises of Russian passports and substantial financial incentives. The Somali mercenary, for instance, was drawn by the promise of wealth, believing it would allow him to live comfortably back home, unaware of the realities of the conflict he was entering. Jonathan points out that while this might seem obvious to those closely following the war, it is not necessarily the case for individuals in other parts of the world preoccupied with their daily struggles and seeking opportunities for economic improvement. He speculates that Russia, facing labour shortages due to the war, has relaxed immigration policies to attract foreign workers, many of whom are then funneled into military service through deceptive recruitment tactics. Jonathan notes that the lucrative packages offered to foreign recruits, particularly those from impoverished backgrounds, underscore the lengths to which Russia is willing to go to bolster its depleted ranks. The captured Somali mercenary's account reveals the inadequate training provided to these recruits, a mere seven weeks, after which they are swiftly deployed to the front lines. He describes the harrowing conditions on the battlefield and the lack of concern for the well-being of injured soldiers, claiming that there is little to no effort to save the lives of those wounded in action. Jonathan finds this particularly revealing, speculating that Russian forces, operating under a cold, utilitarian calculus, see the cost of evacuating and treating a wounded soldier, particularly a foreign one, as outweighing the benefits. This, he suggests, highlights the dehumanizing nature of the conflict and the disregard for human life that has come to characterize the Russian approach.

Return to top⤴️

Maxar Continues to Sell Satellite Images to Russia

🎦 33:42-36:11⏩

Jonathan raises concerns about Maxar Technologies, an American satellite imagery company, continuing to sell satellite images of Ukraine to Russia. He acknowledges accusations that this practice has been ongoing for some time, with some arguing that the US government has the power to intervene. However, Jonathan believes that this issue stems from the complexities of the free market and the difficulty in controlling the flow of information, even with sanctions in place. He draws parallels to the challenges of preventing the illicit trade of sanctioned goods, arguing that satellite imagery, being digital, is even more difficult to regulate. Jonathan uses the example of a hypothetical scenario where satellite images are obtained and then easily transferred to a buyer through encrypted channels, making it almost impossible to track or prevent. He expresses skepticism about claims that the US government could easily solve this problem, acknowledging that while they could likely do more to address the issue, it remains incredibly difficult due to the inherent challenges of controlling private companies operating within a globalized market. Jonathan highlights the dilemma faced by governments: impose strict controls on the private satellite imagery industry, risking innovation and access to valuable data, or accept the possibility of sensitive information falling into the wrong hands. He concludes that as long as there is a demand for satellite imagery, particularly in conflict zones, there will be actors willing to exploit the system, making it incredibly challenging to completely prevent such leaks.

Return to top⤴️

Russia's Stolen Grain Shipments from Crimea to Syria

🎦 36:11-37:56⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to Russia's illegal grain shipments from occupied Crimea, citing a tweet from Ben Hodges that calls for Russia to be denied access to Crimea, partly to stop them from stealing and selling Ukrainian grain. He supports this argument by presenting evidence of a Russian-owned cargo ship, the "Volga Matros Shevchenko," transiting the Bosporus Strait after delivering 27,000 tons of grain, believed to be plundered from Sevastopol in Crimea, to Tartus in Syria. Jonathan uses this incident to highlight the strategic importance of Tartus, a Syrian port leased to Russia, emphasizing its role in projecting Russian influence in the Mediterranean region and beyond. He reiterates his previous assertions regarding Russia's interest in maintaining a presence in Syria not just for military purposes but also for economic and logistical reasons. Tartus, he argues, serves as a hub for Russia's "shadow fleet," facilitating the transportation of sanctioned goods, including oil and grain, and enabling them to circumvent international sanctions and engage in illicit trade.

Return to top⤴️

The Putin Paradox - Risk of Nuclear Escalation

🎦 37:56-42:14⏩

Jonathan discusses the "Putin Paradox," a term he coined to describe the unsettling reality that Ukrainian battlefield successes might increase the risk of Russian nuclear escalation. He explains that Putin, facing potential political instability and even removal from power if Russia suffers a decisive defeat, might resort to desperate measures, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons. This concern, he points out, is now being openly discussed, citing a statement from Oleksandr Danylyuk, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, who acknowledges the possibility of Russia resorting to nuclear weapons if faced with a "catastrophic defeat." Danylyuk's comments, published in The Times, stress that while a Russian defeat does not automatically guarantee nuclear escalation, it cannot be ruled out. Jonathan emphasizes the difficulty in predicting Putin's actions, particularly in a scenario where his regime's survival is at stake. He contrasts Zelensky's position with Putin's, arguing that while a Ukrainian defeat would be disastrous for the country, Zelensky, as an individual, could potentially seek refuge elsewhere. For Putin, however, a humiliating defeat in Ukraine could be politically fatal, potentially leading to his downfall and even death. This existential threat, Jonathan argues, distinguishes Putin's decision-making calculus from Zelensky's. He highlights the irony of the situation: the war, while not existential for Russia as a state, is for Putin personally. This, he suggests, makes Putin more likely to engage in irrational, even desperate actions, including the potential use of nuclear weapons, if backed into a corner. Jonathan acknowledges the validity of the anti-escalatory approach advocated by figures like US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, recognizing the need to avoid provoking unnecessary escalation. However, he also emphasizes the need to be realistic about the potential threat, pushing back against those who downplay the risk of Putin resorting to nuclear weapons. He concludes by stressing the delicate balance that needs to be struck: providing Ukraine with the support it needs to defend itself while remaining mindful of the potential consequences of Ukrainian battlefield victories, particularly a decisive victory that could push Putin over the edge.

Return to top⤴️

Wrap Up

🎦 42:14-42:16⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.

Return to top⤴️