Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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Table of Contents 📖
"It's not a Ukrainian drone that has come down near a Russian airfield. It's a Russian military drone that would need to take off from somewhere like an airfield. And it has crashed nearby in a random warehouse in Taganrog."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video, a Ukraine War News Update - Hits and Losses. He notes that it will be a shorter video today.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Military Losses: Ukraine and Russia
🎦 00:19-03:02⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest military losses from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, noting:
- Personnel losses for Russia are very high at 1,250 - a massive number even though it is down from the previous three days (1440, 1500 and 1300).
- Russian tank losses are also very high at 15.
- Artillery system losses are extremely high at 74. This number is likely underreported due to difficulties in visually confirming artillery losses, particularly those that occur behind the front lines.
- 73 Russian vehicles and fuel tanks were also destroyed.
Drone Warfare Update: Ukraine and Russia
🎦 03:02-07:13⏩
Jonathan discusses drone warfare, noting the following:
- Ukrainian drone losses are high (115) but it is unclear if this includes reconnaissance drones.
- The Ukrainians are successfully shooting down Russian Lancet drones as well as Russian reconnaissance drones.
- Jonathan speculates that the high number of Ukrainian drone losses might be due to larger numbers of Ukrainian drones being deployed.
- There is a trend on both sides of the conflict to adapt existing vehicles (including Humvees and tanks) with additional protection from drones - using "cope cages" to protect vehicles from drone attacks. Cope cages, initially mocked as a way to protect tanks from Javelins and N-LAWs, have become more common and provide some level of protection against smaller drones and drone-dropped munitions.
Moscow Warehouse Fire
🎦 07:13-09:21⏩
- Jonathan reports on a large fire in a Moscow warehouse, emphasising the increasing frequency of such incidents in Russia. He highlights the psychological impact of these events on Russian citizens, who are already grappling with the realities of the war.
- The diversion of resources to the war effort and a growing sense of instability further contribute to unease among Russians. Jonathan suggests that these factors could eventually lead to a tipping point.
Ukraine Overnight Missile and Drone Attacks
🎦 09:21-13:46⏩
- Jonathan reports that Ukraine successfully intercepted a large wave of Russian drones and missiles overnight, including 28 out of 32 Shahed drones, 4 cruise missiles, and 1 S-300 missile.
- However, 3 unspecified Russian missiles hit their targets.
- Jonathan notes that a couple of nights ago, a Ukrainian drone or missile attack targeted the Kamensky plant in Russia's Rostov region, a facility believed to produce fuel for rocket engines. While two Ukrainian Neptune missiles were shot down, a gas supply pipe at the plant was damaged. Jonathan speculates that there may be numerous Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian targets that go unreported.
- Jonathan discusses the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone attacks, citing rumours that only 10 out of 100 drones sent to attack the Toropets ammunition depot in Russia were successful. He suggests that Ukraine could potentially overwhelm Russian air defenses by deploying even larger drone swarms. Jonathan advocates for larger-scale drone attacks by Ukraine to overwhelm Russian air defense capabilities, citing instances of smaller-scale attacks on Russian airbases. He acknowledges, however, that electronic warfare capabilities remain a challenge in ensuring the success of such attacks.
Russian Defences: Crimean Bridge
🎦 13:46-15:07⏩
- Jonathan discusses Russia's heightened security measures around the Crimean bridge, specifically the installation of Pantsir-S1 air defense systems on metal towers on the island of Tuzla. He interprets this move as a sign of Russia's concern over a potential Ukrainian attack on the strategically important bridge, particularly given Ukraine's demonstrated ability to strike targets deep within Russian territory. Jonathan ponders whether this is a strategic move by Ukraine to draw away valuable Russian air defense assets from other areas.
Taganrog Incident: Russian Drone Downed
🎦 15:07-17:45⏩
- Jonathan clarifies an incident initially reported as a Ukrainian drone attack on a warehouse near a military airfield in Taganrog, Russia. Analysis of footage, including contributions from OSINT sources, reveals that the downed aircraft was actually a Russian Orion drone, a larger reconnaissance and strike drone similar in capability to the American Reaper. Debris analysis confirms the drone as Russian. Jonathan highlights the incident as a positive development for Ukraine, with a Russian drone impacting Russian infrastructure, and notes that it's not the first time an Orion has crashed in Taganrog during the war, citing a previous incident in the summer of 2023.
Frontline Update: Vuhledar & Other Areas
🎦 17:45-23:47⏩
- Jonathan delivers concerning news from the frontline, reporting the retreat of the Ukrainian 72nd Brigade from Vuhledar after a prolonged and fierce defense.
- Citing analysis, he acknowledges the critical situation in the town. Ukrainian forces are believed to have withdrawn to Bogoyavlenka. The strategic significance of Vuhledar's elevated position, offering advantageous lines of sight for Ukrainian forces, is highlighted. Jonathan points out that the Russians eventually succeeded by approaching from the north, avoiding the disadvantageous lower ground to the south.
- Footage is shown of Vuhledar being heavily bombarded by Russian artillery and aviation, including the use of FAB guided bombs which caused significant damage to buildings.
- Jonathan shares Andrew Perpetua's speculation that the Ukrainian withdrawal from Vuhledar may have been a strategic decision to cede the area gradually rather than a result of being overrun. This strategy, if true, would have allowed for a more controlled withdrawal. However, recent Russian breakthroughs in the area suggest potential additional territorial losses for Ukraine beyond what might have been strategically planned. The possibility remains that Ukrainian forces were genuinely attempting to hold the area, which, if true, indicates a dire situation for those defending. Jonathan emphasizes the psychological impact on troops involved in the latter stages of such withdrawals.
- Jonathan cites Mashevets, a Ukrainian war observer, who believes Ukraine is likely to withdraw from other areas southeast of Prokrosk in the near future, specifically Selidove and potentially Vlodovia.
- Despite these setbacks, a recent Washington Post report offers a glimmer of hope, suggesting that Ukraine could launch a significant counter-offensive in 2025 if it enhances its mobilization efforts and receives consistent and timely military support from the West. Jonathan acknowledges this possibility but expresses uncertainty about the availability of Ukrainian reserves and necessary equipment. The possibility that Ukraine is deliberately ceding territory as part of a larger strategic plan remains a topic of speculation.
Andrew Perpetua's Equipment Loss List
🎦 23:47-28:14⏩
- Jonathan analyses Andrew Perpetua's latest equipment loss list, revealing a consistent ratio of approximately 2:1 (Russian to Ukrainian losses) across most equipment categories. Excluding Starlink equipment and similar technology, the ratio improves further in Ukraine's favour.
- Ukrainian losses primarily consist of surveillance and communication equipment, including an ST68U radar system, artillery pieces (D-20s), and an IMR-2 engineering vehicle. Notably, several Lancet strikes were responsible for Ukrainian losses, indicating their effectiveness behind the front lines. A Russian Orion strike is also reported to have taken out a Ukrainian engineering vehicle, further highlighting the reach of these larger drones.
- Ukrainian losses also include a number of tanks (including a BMP-1 and a Swedish-supplied CV90), APCs, Humvees, and MRAPs. These losses, however, are attributed to Ukraine's offensive operations in areas such as Kursk.
- Russian losses are substantial, including an Mi-8 helicopter reportedly destroyed by two teenagers who broke into an airbase, a Buk-M3 air defense system, an S-10 air defense system, an engineering vehicle, five boats (likely in the Dnipro River delta), numerous artillery pieces (including two Grad MLRS), a variety of tanks (including a damaged T-90M), and a significant number of infantry fighting vehicles (BMP-1s, BMP-2s, and BMP-3s).
- Jonathan notes that the loss of two air defense systems and a helicopter will be a significant blow to Russia, particularly in light of their ongoing efforts to maintain their military capabilities.
Russian Man Threatens Pro-Ukrainian Protesters in Tokyo
🎦 28:14-30:38⏩
- Jonathan shares a video of a Russian man harassing pro-Ukrainian demonstrators in Tokyo. The man, identified as Danila Danilov Popov, a Moscow-born model and tour guide residing in Japan, is seen verbally and physically threatening the protesters, including a child. Jonathan expresses his disgust at Popov's behaviour and his disturbing praise for Putin and Hitler. Jonathan notes the irony of Popov's actions given his residence in and reliance on Japanese society. Popov's subsequent arrest by Japanese police and forced apology are highlighted, with Jonathan questioning the underlying motivations and mentality that would drive such aggression and intolerance.
Wrap Up
🎦 30:38-30:47⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by expressing hope that it has been informative and thanks viewers for watching.
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