Ukraine War BREAKING NEWS: Moscow Terrorist Attack - Unpicking the Data
Table of Contents 📖
"And even though this happened in Russia and we might not be fans of Russia, these are human beings who have lost their lives needlessly…violence like this is horrific, isn't it? And, um, you know you wouldn’t want your family members to be caught up in that, or yourself. So you know, bear that in mind, always think as humanistically as possible."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:27⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a late-night Ukraine War breaking news update. He mentions enjoying the film "Roadhouse" but also keeping an eye on events unfolding in Moscow.
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Jonathan's Assessment - Terrorist attack in Moscow
🎦 00:27-00:51⏩
Jonathan's initial assessment of the situation in Moscow suggests a genuine terrorist attack, unrelated to Ukraine and likely not a false flag operation. He bases this conclusion on his analysis of the available data.
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Probability Analysis - Bayes Theorum
🎦 00:51-02:37⏩
Jonathan delves into a probabilistic analysis, referencing Bayesian probability and the importance of considering prior probabilities based on historical context and patterns. He acknowledges Russia's history of false flag operations but emphasizes the need to weigh all available data.
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Previous Warnings of an attack in Moscow
🎦 02:37-03:48⏩
Jonathan highlights previous warnings from a few weeks prior, citing claims of an imminent terrorist attack in Moscow. He references reports from Forbes regarding a US Embassy warning about potential extremist attacks targeting large gatherings in Moscow, specifically mentioning the US Embassy's advice to avoid such gatherings for 48 hours. Jonathan connects this with the targeted concert hall, Crocus City Hall, which aligns with the profile of a large gathering.
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Initial reports of the attack in Moscow - casualties and gunmen
🎦 03:48-04:53⏩
Jonathan says that he cannot show footage of the attack which took place at Crocus City Hall in Moscow but reports of five terrorists and the arrival of the Rosgvardia special forces. He notes conflicting reports of the timing of their arrival, with some suggesting an hour after the shooting. He then addresses the false flag theory, suggesting a potential motive for Russia to stage such an attack, potentially as justification for escalating the conflict in Ukraine and initiating a mass mobilization.
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Further details of the attack
🎦 04:53-07:23⏩
Jonathan emphasizes that while the possibility of a Ukrainian attack exists, it's not widely accepted as a probable explanation. He recounts details of the attack, describing multiple gunmen (potentially five), some witness reports indicating they had beards and appeared to be of Eastern or Caucasian origin. There are conflicting reports about the gunmen's appearance. Jonathan also notes reports of the special forces entering the building and a claim that four gunmen had escaped. Public events in Moscow over the weekend were cancelled as a result of the attack.
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International Media Reaction
🎦 07:23-09:27⏩
Jonathan observes the significant international media attention the attack has garnered, linking it to the abundance of available footage. He contrasts this with the comparatively less attention given to earlier reports of Russian missile attacks on Ukraine, highlighting a potential disparity in media coverage. He criticizes the Ukrainian government's quick assertion that they were not involved, deeming it an unwise public statement at this stage.
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Claims of Responsibility - False Flag Allegations
🎦 09:27-12:08⏩
Jonathan addresses the circulating claims, including Ukraine's (likely inaccurate) assertion of a false flag operation. He advises a cautious approach, suggesting it's more prudent to observe Russia's narrative without offering counterproductive claims from the Ukrainian side. He then discusses a claim, later deemed false, that the FSB drove a minibus with Ukrainian license plates to the mall as a way to frame Ukraine. He discredits this claim, pointing out that the plates were Belarusian, not Ukrainian.
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ISIS Claims Responsibility
🎦 12:08-16:06⏩
Jonathan delves into the claim of responsibility issued by ISIS, acknowledging its prominence even on mainstream media outlets like the BBC. However, he emphasizes the need for caution, referencing past instances where ISIS has claimed responsibility for attacks they were not involved in. He cites a comment from John Ridge who states that ISIS and its affiliates often claim responsibility for attacks they did not commit and that while ISIS or an affiliate is a likely candidate it is not definitive. He brings in further analysis that shows the ISIS claim is based on an outdated template and may therefore be fake.
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US Intelligence Assessment
🎦 16:06-17:48⏩
Jonathan highlights US intelligence reports that appear to corroborate ISIS's claim of responsibility. He cites Rob Lee, stating that a US official confirmed to CBS News about having intelligence supporting the ISIS claim. He also underscores the US's sharing of intelligence with Russia in this situation, portraying it as a mutually beneficial act that helps to absolve Ukraine of blame. Jonathan notes this is a common enemy scenario and therefore in everyone's best interest. He reinforces this point by mentioning a New York Times article where US officials reiterate their belief in ISIS's responsibility for the attack.
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Conflicting Reports and Disinformation
🎦 17:48-19:47⏩
Jonathan navigates through more conflicting reports and potential disinformation. He addresses a claim from a generally reliable Russian Telegram channel suggesting that Russian security forces are searching for three individuals from Ingushetia, purportedly responsible for the attack. However, he immediately counters this by citing Radu Hossu, who claims that these individuals have been dead for weeks, rendering the information false. He then cites Anton Gerashchenko, who, while condemning the attack and mentioning casualties, reinforces the claim about the minibus with old Ukrainian license plates. Gerashchenko also states that Russian special services have ruled out Ukrainian or ISIS involvement, contradicting other reports.
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Analysis and Emerging Evidence
🎦 19:47-21:14⏩
Jonathan cites a Washington Post report indicating prior intelligence reports about ISIS-K's activity inside Russia and reminds viewers of the US Embassy's warning about potential attacks on large gatherings in Moscow. He highlights the emergence of dashcam footage showing at least six bearded gunmen exiting a minibus and entering the concert hall, seemingly supporting the theory of an ISIS-linked attack.
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Propaganda and Fixation on Ukraine
🎦 21:14-22:59⏩
Jonathan criticizes what he perceives as Russian propaganda that attempts to link the attack to Ukraine, even when discussing the broader context of terrorism. He expresses concern about the consistent attempts to connect events to Ukraine, potentially to further a specific narrative. He cites examples, including a statement from the Ukrainian GUR claiming the attack was a Russian false flag operation orchestrated to justify total mobilization. Jonathan then dissects this claim, acknowledging its plausibility given Russia's history of false flag attacks. He cites previous instances, such as the apartment bombings during the Chechen wars, as examples of Russia's tactics.
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Jonathan's Conclusion - a genuine Terrorist attack
🎦 22:59-24:05⏩
Jonathan reiterates his conclusion that despite the potential for a false flag operation, the evidence points towards a genuine terrorist attack, possibly linked to ISIS. He emphasizes the prior warnings from embassies, the emerging evidence, and the consistency of this explanation with the known facts. He encourages viewers to remain critical of information, particularly on social media, and to prioritize a humanistic perspective when processing such events.
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Updates and Closing Remarks
🎦 24:05-25:08⏩
Jonathan concludes by acknowledging a rising death toll, with OSINT reporting 62 fatalities. He expresses his sadness at the tragic loss of life, emphasizing the human cost of such violence. He encourages empathy and understanding, reminding viewers that regardless of political stances, these events represent a senseless loss of innocent lives. He expresses gratitude for his viewers' support, signs off, and promises to speak to them tomorrow.
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