Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russians abandoned their elderly during the evacuation from Kursk region... Ukraine's found a paralyzed grandmother and helped her."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the Ukraine War News Update. He is on holiday and lets viewers know this is the last day of his holiday, he'll be travelling back tomorrow. Jonathan reassures viewers he will try and keep to his one video a day upload schedule!
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures - 17th August 2024
🎦 01:08-02:27⏩
Jonathan discusses that the Ukrainian General Staff figures for 17th August show Russian losses as 1170 personnel, 7 tanks, and just under 7 AFVs, which is lower than usual, possibly due to a lower tempo of Russian attacks. Artillery losses were high at 71 systems - Jonathan suggests that the Ukrainians are prioritising degrading Russian artillery capabilities. Losses of vehicles and fuel tanks were also high at 79.
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Oryx/Andrew Perpetua's Loss List - 16th August 2024
🎦 02:27-06:53⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest losses list from Andrew Perpetua. He notes that Ukrainian losses were almost as high as Russian losses on 16th August, possibly reflecting fighting in Kursk. The most significant Ukrainian losses included a MiG-29 destroyed by an Iskander missile on the ground (no crew losses), an S125 air defence system also destroyed in the Sumy region, an AHS Krab and a BM-21. A number of Ukrainian artillery pieces were hit by Russian Lancet loitering munitions. Jonathan comments on the difficulty of assessing battle damage following Lancet strikes on artillery, particularly towed howitzers. Jonathan notes the high number of Western-supplied equipment losses, 5 Bradleys damaged, 1 Marder destroyed, a Striker APC abandoned, an M113 destroyed, a Striker damaged, a Patriot damaged and 2 Cougar MRAPS captured.
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Oryx/Andrew Perpetua's Loss List - 17th August 2024
🎦 06:53-11:03⏩
Jonathan reviews Andrew Perpetua's loss list for the 17th August. Again, both sides incurred losses, but the difference between the proportion of equipment destroyed versus damaged is stark - a far higher proportion of Russian equipment was destroyed or abandoned compared to Ukrainian equipment. Jonathan reasons that this will lead to higher personnel losses for the Russians and suggests that this is a significant factor in the war.
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Chechen/Kadyrovite Losses
🎦 11:03-11:51⏩
Jonathan discusses Kadyrovite losses in Kursk. While Apti Alaudinov, the commander of the Chechen forces, has boasted about their success in stabilising the front lines, there is evidence that many Chechen soldiers are being captured.
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Ukrainian M270 Decoy
🎦 11:51-12:50⏩
Jonathan discusses a claim from yesterday that a Ukrainian M270 MLRS had been destroyed in a Russian strike in Sumy. Initial reports suggested that the M270 had been destroyed by an Iskander ballistic missile, but it has now been confirmed that the target was an inflatable decoy. Jonathan credits OSINT accounts that originally made the claim, including John Ridge and War Vehicle Tracker, for acknowledging the mistake and setting the record straight.
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Ukrainian 33rd Mechanised Brigade Action - Maryinka
🎦 12:50-13:41⏩
Jonathan shows drone footage of what is purported to be a Russian attack in the Maryinka area, supposedly repulsed by the Ukrainian 33rd Mechanised Brigade. Jonathan expresses some uncertainty as to the provenance of the video, stating that it is difficult to be sure that each clip is from the same engagement, as the video is edited together from the feeds of multiple drones.
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Overnight Russian Missile & Drone Strikes
🎦 13:41-14:49⏩
Jonathan discusses overnight Russian missile and drone strikes across Ukraine. Ukrainian air defences shot down 2 North Korean KN-22 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles and intercepted all 8 Shahed-136 drones. The ballistic missiles were aimed at Kyiv, highlighting the growing problem of North Korea supplying arms to Russia. Jonathan expresses his concern over the increasing use of North Korean ballistic missiles.
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Ukrainian Mi-24 Helicopter Downs Enemy Aircraft
🎦 14:49-15:44⏩
Jonathan reports on an incident where a Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter appears to have successfully shot down enemy aerial targets, although it is not known what the targets were. He draws parallels to the use of Yak-52 propeller planes being used as makeshift air defence platforms and the potential for Ukrainian F-16s to be used in a similar role in the future.
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Further Details of Russian Strikes
🎦 15:44-17:02⏩
Jonathan provides further details of overnight Russian strikes, confirming that Kyiv was subjected to a third ballistic missile attack this month, though no casualties were reported. Strikes in Kherson and Dnipro injured three people. Jonathan expresses his anger over a Russian attack on Brovary in Kyiv Oblast, which involved a KH-101 cruise missile armed with a cluster munition warhead. While the missile was shot down by Ukrainian air defences, the cluster munitions were scattered over a wide area.
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Russians Target First Green School In Ukraine
🎦 17:02-18:19⏩
Jonathan shares his outrage that the Russians have destroyed the first "Green" school in Ukraine. The school was an important symbol of Ukraine's commitment to sustainability and education. Jonathan condemns the attack as a war crime and laments the destruction of the school, calling the Russians "bastards" for carrying it out.
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Ukrainian Strike on Oil Depot in Rostov
🎦 18:19-19:14⏩
Jonathan reports on a successful Ukrainian drone strike on an oil depot in Russia's Rostov region. Two fuel tanks were destroyed in the attack, and the depot was still burning as of the time of the video.
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Ukrainians Destroy Second Bridge over Seversky Donets River
🎦 19:14-19:58⏩
Jonathan discusses footage that has emerged showing a second bridge over the Seversky Donets River in the vicinity of Zvonivka that has been damaged by Ukrainian forces, meaning that 2 of the 3 bridges in the area are now out of action. Jonathan speculates that the destruction of the bridges, coupled with the destruction of a Russian pontoon bridge, could leave Russian troops in the Glushkove district cut off.
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Russian Soldiers Punished for Drinking
🎦 19:58-21:19⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian soldiers have been filmed being tied to trees and beaten for drinking alcohol while on duty. He draws comparisons between this harsh punishment and the strict rules enforced by the Wagner Group, noting that the consumption of alcohol in the Russian armed forces is a serious problem.
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Russian Woman Claims US is Behind Kursk Attacks
🎦 21:19-22:16⏩
Jonathan pokes fun at a Russian woman who claims the US is to blame for the recent Ukrainian attacks in the Kursk region, despite not knowing what is happening there. He highlights the stark contrast between reality and perception, especially among the Russian population, and how the US (or Britain) is often seen as the root cause of Russia's problems.
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Ukrainian Forces Discover Abandoned Russian Uniforms in Kursk
🎦 22:16-23:45⏩
Jonathan revisits the issue of Ukrainian forces allegedly using Russian uniforms during their incursion into Kursk, an act that would constitute a war crime under the Geneva Conventions. He clarifies that while there is evidence to suggest that Ukrainian troops used Russian uniforms to seize control of a village, reports of abandoned uniforms found in the woods were unlikely to have been left by Ukrainian soldiers. He reasons that it is far more probable that the uniforms belonged to fleeing Russian soldiers who had changed into civilian clothes to avoid capture. He highlights that this interpretation has been supported by Ukrainian troops engaged in mopping-up operations.
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Ukrainian Soldiers Care for Abandoned Russian Dogs
🎦 23:45-25:09⏩
Jonathan shares a video of Ukrainian soldiers feeding dogs that were abandoned in Kursk. He praises the Ukrainian soldiers for their compassion and highlights the difference between the Ukrainians, who are shown to care for animals, and the Russians, who have a long and well-documented history of destroying everything in their path.
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Russians Abandon Elderly Woman in Kursk
🎦 25:09-26:15⏩
Continuing on the theme of the previous topic, Jonathan shares his shock at the discovery of a paralysed elderly woman who had been abandoned by the Russians during the evacuation of Kursk. Jonathan expresses his disgust at the treatment of the woman, who appears to have been left to die.
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Monobank Cyber Attacks
🎦 26:15-26:24⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian digital bank, Monobank, has been the target of a series of massive Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) cyberattacks for the past three days.
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Russians Pushed Back From Canal District in Chasiv Yar
🎦 26:24-27:08⏩
Jonathan cites a report that suggests the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back from the canal district in Chasiv Yar, a strategically important town in Donetsk Oblast that was expected to fall to the Russians. Jonathan expresses some surprise at the report and asks for clarification from his viewers.
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Fighting in Toretsk
🎦 27:08-29:01⏩
Jonathan reports that the situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian forces now fighting on the outskirts of the city. He stresses the urgency of the situation, with many civilians still trapped in the city. He posits that the fighting in Toretsk and the Ukrainian operation in Kursk is a high-stakes game of military chicken, with each side hoping that the other will crumble first. He speculates that the Ukrainians have a numerical advantage in Kursk and questions why more resources haven't been committed by the Ukrainians to defend Toretsk.
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Analysis of the Situation in Kursk and Toretsk
🎦 29:01-30:55⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation in Prokrosk, suggesting that Russian gains there may be more to do with the lack of Ukrainian fortifications between villages, rather than a lack of Ukrainian troops. He highlights that while the Russian advances may seem significant on a map, they have come at a cost, with the Ukrainians inflicting heavy losses. He also notes that the amount of territory captured by the Ukrainians in Kursk outweighs Russian gains in the Prokrosk region. He cites analysis from Andrew Perpetua, who has suggested that the redeployment of the Ukrainian troops operating in Kursk would not have made much difference to the situation in Prokrosk. He speculates that the Ukrainians may be trying to draw Russian troops away from other areas, such as Crimea, to create vulnerabilities elsewhere.
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Rumours of Ukrainian Attack on Transnistria
🎦 30:55-32:16⏩
Jonathan discusses rumours circulating on social media that Ukraine is planning to liberate Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova that is home to a large Russian military presence and arms depot. He suggests that these rumours could be part of a Ukrainian disinformation campaign. Jonathan explains that while retaking Transnistria would be strategically valuable for Ukraine, it could also be highly controversial given that it would involve sending Ukrainian troops into Moldova, a move that could be met with hostility by some quarters within Moldova.
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Wrap Up
🎦 32:16-32:50⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off for the day.
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