Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"The Ukrainians need to just be absolutely hammering the Russians, knowing that they can't be too effective around the front line, around the contact line, certainly until they are completely reconstituted in terms of troops and ammunition and resources and whatnot."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:27⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics frontline update, emphasising the use of the map legend for clarity. He reminds everyone that reddish pins on the map indicate Russian gains.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeast Sector Overview
🎦 00:27-02:33⏩
Jonathan highlights the overall situation in the northeast sector, noting the Russians are primarily on the offensive due to Ukrainian struggles with ammunition and resource shortages. He acknowledges the mapping work done by JR.
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Svatove-Kreminna Line
🎦 02:33-02:45⏩
Jonathan points out ongoing fighting along the Svatove-Kreminna line, specifically mentioning activity in Serebiansky Forest and the Terny area, but with no changes to the frontline.
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Bakhmut: Russian Advances and Ukrainian Challenges
🎦 02:45-08:12⏩
- Jonathan details significant Russian advancements around Bakhmut, particularly in the Kramova area north of the city.
- He highlights Russian progress along the 0506 highway towards Bohdanivka, based on information from both Suriat Maps and Andrew Perpetua's mapping.
- Jonathan notes the Russians are pushing westward from Bakhmut, north of the former MiG statue location, based on observations from Andrew Perpetua.
- He cites Suriat Maps' assertion that the Russian army has reversed 95% of Ukrainian territorial gains made between May and June.
- Jonathan expresses concern about the situation south of Bakhmut, where Ukrainians face difficulties in the dacha area.
- He mentions the Russians' advance through the area, confirmed by both Andrew Perpetua and Suriat Maps.
- Jonathan highlights the vulnerability of Ukrainian positions in Klishchivka as Russian forces apply pressure from both the north and south.
- He observes that the Russians are pushing into the middle of the extensive trench network, with varying reports from Andrew Perpetua, Deep State Map, and Suriat Maps regarding the level of control. - Jonathan explains why the potential Russian control of the trench network puts Klishchivka at significant risk, potentially leading to its abandonment by Ukrainian forces.
- He notes Russian gains in Kodyamivka, aligning with information from both Andrew Perpetua and Suriat Maps.
- Jonathan observes the Russians' attempt to advance along the canal line, highlighting the significant territorial gains made by Ukrainian forces during their previous counteroffensive. - He concludes that the overall situation in Bakhmut is concerning for Ukrainians due to mounting pressure from Russian forces.
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Avdiivka: Stalemate and Ukrainian Resistance
🎦 08:12-11:04⏩
- Jonathan shifts focus to Avdiivka, where Russian milbloggers claim advances of up to 800 meters north and northwest of Opytne and 400-500 meters west of Vodyane.
- He notes that while the ISW confirms some of these Russian claims, challenging weather conditions are hindering both sides' ground activities.
- Jonathan quotes Vitaly Barabas, the head of the Avdiivka city military administration, who asserts that Russia will not be able to seize the city before the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.
- Jonathan acknowledges the difficulty for Russian forces to make further progress into the city center due to potential street-to-street fighting, contingent on the status of the encirclement attempt.
- He highlights the Ukrainians' small counteroffensive gains in the area, pushing back Russian forces, based on information from Suriat Maps and potentially Deep State Maps or Global War Monitor.
- Jonathan reiterates the positive implications of any Ukrainian gains, no matter how small.
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Novomykhailivka: Russian Pressure and Ukrainian Defense
🎦 11:04-13:12⏩
- Jonathan moves on to Novomykhailivka, acknowledging Suriat Maps' depiction of Russian forces reaching the village's edge, a view shared by Andrew Perpetua.
- He cites Suriat Maps' reporting on Russian efforts to control farms near the cemetery and ongoing combat south of the village. - Jonathan contrasts this with No Reports' more optimistic view, suggesting it might not fully reflect the situation on the ground. - He references geolocated footage that indicates Russian attempts to enter the southern outskirts of Novomykhailivka and advances near the T0513 road.
- Jonathan mentions a repelled Russian mechanized attack south of Novomykhailivka, acknowledging the fluidity of the situation despite the reported attack.
- He highlights a Ukrainian paratrooper unit repelling a Russian attack on the industrial outskirts of the village, emphasizing the ongoing fighting in the area.
- Jonathan reiterates his concerns about Novomykhailivka's strategic importance as its defense delays a Russian advance towards Kostyantynivka.
- He explains the concept of extrinsic value, where a location's significance lies in its ability to prevent attacks on other, more strategically important areas.
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Robotyne: Russian Advances and Ukrainian Claims
🎦 13:12-15:03⏩
- Jonathan shifts the focus to Robotyne, acknowledging Russian gains in the area's south.
- He cites Suriat Maps, which claims the Russian army advanced 700 meters between Robotyne and Verbove, breaching the Ukrainian defensive lines.
- Jonathan clarifies a previous statement, noting ongoing heavy fighting in Marinka with Russian advances westward towards Kurove.
- He mentions Ukrainian military observer Mashivets' claim of Russian paratrooper advances northwest of Robotyne and Verbove (800 meters and 400 meters, respectively).
- Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the exact locations of these advances, suggesting they might be reflected in future ISW reports. - He notes the ISW's lack of visual confirmation for Mashivets' claims.
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Krinke: Russian Gains and Ukrainian Vulnerability
🎦 15:03-18:23⏩
- Jonathan moves on to Krinke, highlighting concerning Russian gains in the area. He expresses reservations about Suriat Maps' reports of significant Russian gains.
- He reveals a private conversation with Andrew Perpetua, who, as a mapmaker, had not seen evidence supporting the claimed Russian closure of the Krinke bridgehead.
- Jonathan acknowledges Suriat Maps' pattern of occasionally premature victory declarations, contrasting it with the source's accuracy during major Russian offensives.
- He notes Suriat Maps' tendency to be more conservative with Ukrainian claims compared to Russian ones.
- Jonathan reiterates his belief in Suriat Maps' current accuracy, emphasizing the ongoing Russian pressure across the frontline.
- He expresses concern about the Ukrainian difficulty in expanding their bridgehead at Krinke, making them increasingly vulnerable to Russian counterattacks.
- Jonathan links this vulnerability to his previously expressed concerns about the lack of meaningful Ukrainian bridgehead expansion over the past month, highlighting the risk of Russian reinforcement and counteroffensives.
- He cites the ISW's confirmation of marginal Russian advances in Krinke based on geolocated footage, suggesting it might validate Suriat Maps' assessment.
- Jonathan highlights the geolocated footage showing a Ukrainian attack on Russian forces, aligning with Suriat Maps' depiction of the frontline.
- He contrasts this with periods of Ukrainian counteroffensives, where Suriat Maps' reporting proved less accurate.
- Jonathan reiterates his view that Suriat Maps tends to be more reliable when reporting on Russian advances than Ukrainian ones. - He concludes that the situation in Krinke is worrying for Ukraine, with the lack of bridgehead expansion making them vulnerable to Russian pressure.
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Winter Warfare: Stalemate, Attrition, and Deep Strikes
🎦 18:23-21:11⏩
- Jonathan concludes the frontline update, acknowledging the challenging situation for Ukrainians.
- He expresses particular concern over Novomykhailivka and Krinke, noting the ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in the latter.
- Jonathan emphasizes the significance of Ukrainian successes in striking Russian positions behind the frontline.
- He underlines his expectation for the winter period: a war of attrition characterized by limited frontline movement due to drone warfare, with the Ukrainians focusing on disrupting Russian logistics and inflicting damage behind the lines.
- Jonathan stresses the Ukrainians' need to sustain this pressure on Russian forces for the coming six months, targeting their logistics and infrastructure both near the frontline and within Russian territory. - He emphasizes the importance of deep strikes against targets like the Morozov air base in Rostov, urging for more such operations. - Jonathan concludes by stating that the Ukrainians must exploit their advantage in deep strikes while avoiding large-scale frontline engagements until they can replenish their resources and manpower.
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Wrap Up
🎦 21:11-21:16⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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