Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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"The Russian M&D has a track record of being very inaccurate and very misleading with what they claim. And so that's why I don't broadly go to them for data."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine War for May 3rd, 2023. He starts by reviewing the latest figures from Ukraine on Russian losses, noting a slight uptick in personnel losses and a high number of artillery pieces destroyed. Jonathan finds these artillery losses significant, especially ahead of Ukraine's anticipated counter-offensive.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Ministry of Defence Claims
Jonathan explains why he doesn't report figures from the Russian Ministry of Defence (M&D), citing their track record of inaccuracy and misleading claims. He provides an example of the M&D claiming to have shot down 3 Ukrainian aircraft in one day, which he finds dubious without video evidence. Jonathan also highlights the implausible total losses the M&D claims to have inflicted on Ukraine, which exceed Ukraine's pre-war inventory. He concludes that the Russian M&D figures have no correlation with reality.
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Overnight Drone Attacks and Explosions
- Shahid drone attacks occurred overnight, with 21 out of 26 drones launched by Russia shot down by Ukrainian forces. However, some drones caused damage, hitting an oil depot and an administration building in Dnipro.
- Explosions were reported in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro, likely related to the drone attacks.
Oil Depot Attacks
- Ukrainian drones struck a large oil terminal on the east side of the Kerch Bridge in Russian territory. The attack damaged one of the oil storage units at the facility.
- The strike's proximity to the Kerch Bridge (just 7km) is significant, demonstrating Ukraine's ability to hit targets near this strategic crossing. However, the drones used may not be capable of severely damaging the bridge itself.
- In the Bryansk region of Russia, a railway track was blown up, causing a freight train to derail. The attack damaged 300 meters of track and overturned 20 out of the train's 70 wagons.
Pavlograd Explosions
Jonathan discusses the massive explosions at a chemical plant in Pavlograd, Ukraine. He initially thought the explosions indicated the presence of S-300 munitions but cites a thread from Twitter user "Geo_confirmed" who determined the site was used to store 1,800 tons of expired solid rocket fuel. The explosions could cause an ecological disaster affecting the Dnipropetrovsk region and four neighboring regions. The thread raises the question of whether Russia intentionally targeted the site, knowing the potential environmental consequences.
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Frontline Updates
- Five trucks transporting S-300 missile systems were spotted in Russian-occupied Mariupol heading towards Zaporizhzhia. Russia has been using these systems, designed for air defense, to attack ground targets in Ukraine. Moving the S-300s closer to Zaporizhzhia could support air defense against an anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive and allow continued strikes on the city.
- American-made Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles were seen training in Ukraine, and British self-propelled howitzers are reportedly deployed on the eastern front. Ukraine relies heavily on Western-supplied 155mm artillery systems.
- Ukraine continues to receive Iranian-made ammunition, with some projectiles dated 2023. It's unclear if these munitions were obtained through direct sale, capture, or sanctions enforcement.
Military Aid
- Denmark announced its largest military aid package to Ukraine, worth $250 million, to purchase demining equipment, ammunition, field bridges, and air defense equipment.
- The US is expected to announce a $300 million aid package, including artillery and mortar ammunition, Hydra 70 rockets, trucks, heavy equipment, and spare parts.
Geopolitics
- Tinder announced its exit from the Russian market more than a year after the invasion of Ukraine.
- German intelligence warned parliament members to protect themselves from Russian espionage by turning computer screens away from windows, avoiding wireless devices, and closing blinds during meetings. The German Council on Foreign Relations noted that years of neglecting counterintelligence would take time to repair.
- Russian security services claimed to have thwarted a plot to attack leaders of the Russian-imposed government in Crimea, involving citizens of Russia, Ukraine, and Bulgaria. They alleged the explosives were supplied from Bulgaria through Turkey and Georgia disguised as electric stoves.
- Conflicting reports emerged about a potential meeting in Istanbul on Friday between Ukrainian and Russian deputy defense ministers to discuss the grain deal. Turkey's defense minister expressed hope for extending the deal without trouble.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He signs off with his usual "take care and I'll speak to you soon."
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