Ukraine Conflict (202311107): Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
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"The Russians may attack here and there, the Ukrainians may attack here and there, but in this time of regathering themselves, each side will be - well, the Ukrainians will certainly be focused on trying to hit Russian military targets."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the key to his map and notes that while there is activity along the frontline from Kubiansk to Svatove to Kreminna, there are no confirmed changes for either side in the last 24 hours. All the usual places are reporting repelled attacks.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Igor Girkin's Analysis
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that imprisoned Russian nationalist Igor Girkin argues Russian forces will be even less capable of offensive operations by spring 2024 given their current efforts to repel Ukrainian attacks and conduct offensives. Girkin suggests additional Western aid to Ukraine and lack of mobilization in Russia could allow Ukraine to end positional warfare and conduct successful offensives in 2024. Jonathan generally agrees, noting Ukraine will need to reconstitute ammunition and equipment while degrading Russian forces and logistics through distance strikes during the autumn/winter period.
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Bakhmut Area
According to pro-Russian mapper Andrew Perpetua, Russian forces have made gains near the Bekivka Reservoir, with some sources claiming they control the whole reservoir or just the southern shore. The ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation. A Ukrainian source and several Russian bloggers also report the gains. Russian forces are also attacking across the railway line between Klishchiivka and Andriivka south of Bakhmut, though Ukrainian forces are still conducting offensive actions in the area.
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Avdiivka Front
Russian forces have gained more control over the tree line west of the railway near Stepove, pushing Ukrainians back according to pro-Russian Syriac Maps. The ISW cites a Russian blogger claiming Russians broke through the railway and control a waste heap north of Avdiivka. Ukrainian observer Mashivets reports Russians captured territory behind the railway near the northern part of the coke plant. Ukrainian journalist Butusov warns Russians are preparing for renewed assaults on Avdiivka with fresh reserves. Jonathan notes the Russians can afford to waste more men and equipment to take small amounts of land, and only need to advance a couple kilometers to cut the Ukrainian supply road into Avdiivka.
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South of Avdiivka
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces advanced south of Novomykhailivka, about 12km southwest of Donetsk city. Ukrainian forces from the 79th Air Assault Brigade destroyed Russian armored vehicles in the area. A Russian blogger claimed Ukrainians counterattacked near Krasnohorivka between Nov 3-5, forcing Russians to withdraw from part of the railway track.
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Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka
There is ongoing fighting around Vuhledar. According to Syriac Maps, Russians captured a small area around Mykilske north of where they previously sent equipment. Both sides have taken some ground - Russians advancing north towards a mine northeast of Vuhledar while Ukrainians re-entered some buildings east of Pavlivka. In the Velyka Novosilka area, positional battles are reported due to poor weather and visibility. Geolocated footage indicates a slight Russian advance east of Zolota Nyva, but Jonathan notes this is still behind Russian defensive lines according to the mappers he uses.
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Zaporizhzhia Direction
The Russian Vostok Battalion claims current poor weather is unsuitable for high combat activity, with mostly artillery duels along the frontline. A Russian blogger reports positional battles in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhzhia due to lack of visibility. Geolocated footage shows a slight Russian advance east of Zahirne, 11km southwest of Huliaipole, but this is behind Russian lines according to the mappers used.
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Kherson Frontline
There is significant activity reported in the Kherson region. Evidence suggests Ukrainians transported mechanized equipment, likely a BTR, across the Dnipro river for the first time using a PTS-2 amphibious vehicle. Russian sources claim heavy losses in the area. Ukrainians are reportedly using drone boats with electronic warfare capabilities to counter Russian drones and Iskander missiles. They have expanded their control around Krynky, pushing Russians back. The ISW cites Russian bloggers claiming Ukrainians still hold positions in part of Krynky and have expanded north of Piatykhatky. Ukrainian loitering munitions also destroyed a Russian assault group and vehicles south of Krynky. Jonathan believes it is looking more positive for Ukraine in Kherson, but stopping Russian artillery and drones will be key.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan notes that elsewhere along the frontline it is a "mixed bag", with the Ukrainian counteroffensive largely halted while Russians probe for weaknesses to exploit. He encourages viewers to like, subscribe and share the video.
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