Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: My Missing Rant, ATACMS, Russian Tactics, & Lucky Humvee
Table of Contents 📖
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"It's impossible to overstate how important air superiority is for fighting a ground fight at a reasonable cost in casualties."
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts the video by ranting about the recent cricket match between England and Australia, where rain prevented England from winning. He then moves on to discuss the Ukraine war.
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Ukraine's Counter-Offensive Challenges
A Wall Street Journal article discusses the challenges Ukraine faces in its counter-offensive due to lack of weaponry and training. Deep minefields, fortifications, and Russian air power have largely blocked significant Ukrainian advances. The campaign risks descending into a stalemate without a major shift in momentum. Political calculations in the US may impact future support for Ukraine, while European leaders increasingly believe Ukraine must prevail for the continent's security.
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Importance of Air Superiority
The article emphasizes the critical role of air superiority in ground combat. Ukraine lacks this advantage, making it difficult to breach Russian defenses without incurring high casualties. While Ukraine hopes receiving F-16 fighter jets will help, their impact depends on various factors like sophistication and weapons systems. Incorporating advanced jets into battle plans is also extremely complicated.
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Jonathan's Thoughts on the Counter-Offensive
Jonathan shares his mixed feelings about the progress of Ukraine's counter-offensive. While emotionally he hoped for quicker success, rationally he understands the robust Russian defenses and the need for Ukraine to adapt tactics. He believes the degradation of Russian forces will take its toll over time. Ukraine must continue probing for weaknesses and exploiting them when possible while focusing on attrition from a distance.
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ATACMS Debate
Jonathan discusses the debate around the US not providing ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) to Ukraine. He presents two hypotheses:
- The US is making a stupid decision due to fear of Russian red lines.
- It's a practical military decision based on limited inventory and ATACMS not being the right munition for Ukraine's needs.
Referencing analysis from John Oliver, a retired US Army lieutenant, Jonathan leans towards the second hypothesis. ATACMS may be vulnerable to Russian air defenses and not the best fit for Ukraine's current battlefield requirements.
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Russian Desertion and Punishment
A Russian soldier was sentenced to 5 years in a penal colony for desertion in a show trial attended by 200 fellow soldiers. Punishments for desertion may become more severe, with proposed laws to strip citizenship for actions like desertion and "discrediting" the armed forces. An audio recording reveals a Russian officer threatening to shoot refusing soldiers, highlighting low morale and harsh leadership in the Russian military.
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Destruction of Bakhmut
Footage shows the complete devastation of Bakhmut due to Russian attacks. Jonathan reflects on the contrast between Russia's claims of "liberation" and the utter destruction they have brought to the city. He notes it may be fortunate Bakhmut is not a cultural centerpiece like Odessa, as the loss would be even more tragic.
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Russian Hypocrisy on Ukrainian Language and Culture
Russia has engaged in book burnings, language bans, and destruction of Ukrainian cultural institutions since 2014, contrary to their claims of Ukraine "cancelling" Russian culture. They have eliminated Ukrainian language education, destroyed publishing houses, and damaged museums and galleries. This amounts to cultural genocide and ethnocide. Jonathan condemns the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for their hypocritical propaganda.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share to spread factual information rather than Russian propaganda. He believes this is beneficial for the world in countering disinformation.
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