Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Heaven forgive us for not being thankful enough for what Ukrainian soldiers have done for us and the entire world all this time."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:22⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video with a Ukraine War update. This is the first part and covers overnight news and other news. He notes that it's Thanksgiving and gives thanks to his viewers for their support!
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:22-01:52⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily general staff figures for Russian losses.
- He notes that although still high at 1,220, this represents a significant dip in personnel losses. He reminds viewers that 1,000 losses would have been exceptional at the beginning of the war but given recent figures (1,300-1,600) this is relatively low.
- He speculates that the reduction could be weather-related or a lack of manoeuvres.
- He notes that 22 artillery systems lost is lower than recent figures.
- He reviews Andrew Perpetua's visually appealing chart noting that Russian losses are still about 2.5 times higher than Ukrainian.
Ukrainian Losses
🎦 01:52-05:13⏩
Jonathan reviews the losses reported by Andrew Perpetua. He notes the following:
- A US-supplied APK WS-2 air defence system was damaged but he doesn't believe this is significant. A quick Google search confirms that this system fires Hydra rockets and can be mounted on the back of a Humvee so this is likely one of those.
- 2 artillery systems damaged. One by a Lancet loitering munition.
- 4 tanks lost including a Leopard 1A5 abandoned after being hit by a FPV drone - this will likely be a write-off.
- 4 infantry fighting vehicles including a damaged Marder. The others are Soviet-era.
- 5 APCs including a captured Panthera T-6. A quick Google search confirms that this is a UAE designed and built Light Armoured Personnel Carrier. He notes that this is interesting and speculates that this could lend weight to the rumours that UAE may be selling Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles back to Ukraine. He notes that Vigo has mentioned this but as yet there has been no confirmation.
- A PBV-302 was destroyed after being hit by a Vandal drone. Jonathan recalls this was abandoned but is unsure if this was after the drone strike. He notes that some Swedish viewers have commented stating that they were conscripted to drive/operate these. He encourages viewers to check out the interesting threads about this on BlueSky.
- There are a few other losses but nothing too significant. He notes that there are civilian vehicle losses too.
Russian Losses
🎦 05:13-06:31⏩
Jonathan reviews the Russian losses from Andrew Perpertua's list. He notes the following:
- A large number of trucks, ATVs and civilian vehicles
- 3 boats (one destroyed)
- Not many tanks (only 5)
- 20 infantry fighting vehicles - most were destroyed/abandoned/captured.
- Several BMD-4Ms and BTR-82s lost (Jonathan notes that BMD-4Ms are usually used by elite units such as Special Forces) - it will be interesting to see if they are having issues and are having to deploy these or whether these are being used more because of where the fighting is.
- He notes that Russia are losing a lot of equipment that isn't on the Oryx list.
Russian POWs and North Korean Troops
🎦 06:31-07:05⏩
- A large number of Russian POWs have been captured in the Kursk region - a number of videos have been shared online.
- A large number were from the 810th Marine Brigade (Max 24).
- Russian War correspondent Romanav claims that North Korean troops are undeniably present in the Kursk region.
- He claims that the North Korean troops are highly motivated, well-trained and able to operate any type of weapon. However, he notes that they are not yet being used in direct combat roles.
FAB-3000 in Vovchansk
🎦 07:05-07:53⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia attacked Vovchansk with a FAB-3000 (guided glide bomb) and shows footage of the aftermath. He notes how sad it is to see what was a thriving border town reduced to a hellscape. He notes the irony given that this is in the name of "liberation".
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Ukrainian FPV Interceptions of Russian Drones
🎦 07:53-09:51⏩
- Jonathan highlights an article in Turchny about the increasing use of FPV drones to intercept Russian drones.
- 12% of Ukrainian FPV interceptions were at night (thermal), 88% during the day.
- Most interceptions were of:
- Zala
- Supercam
- Orlan
- At the beginning of the war, the Orlan-10 and Orlan-30 were the most common Russian drones but this has changed.
- Jonathan encourages viewers to read the article and support Turchny's work - they are a fantastic resource for the war in Ukraine. He also thanks Chris from Clockwork Design for all his work with the infographics.
Fire in Moscow
🎦 09:51-10:29⏩
- Jonathan reports on a fire at an industrial building in Klimovsk, 45km south of Moscow. A fire train had to be brought in to get the blaze under control. It's unclear at this stage what the facility manufactured.
- A separate fire broke out at a production facility in the Moscow region. The fire spread over 2000 square metres.
Russian Missile Attacks on Ukraine
🎦 10:29-21:33⏩
- Jonathan notes that overnight there was a massive missile attack on Ukraine - the largest in a long time.
- He examines the statistics for missile interceptions using visually appealing charts created by Del. He notes that it's difficult to compare because there wasn't the technology available at the start of the war to record interceptions so the figures are unreliable. He believes that far more were launched than recorded, and that the interceptions rates wouldn't have been as good.
- 76 out of 85 Kh-101 cruise missiles were shot down.
- 3 out of 3 KH-59 cruise missiles were shot down.
- 0 out of 3 S-300 missiles were shot down (these aren't cruise missiles but ballistic missiles)
- In total 79 out of 88 cruise missiles were intercepted - Jonathan considers this a good result for the Ukrainians.
- 97 out of 97 Shahid drones were dealt with (100% success rate).
- 62 were destroyed by electronic warfare (almost double the number shot down). Jonathan notes that Ukraine now has some of the best electronic warfare capabilities in the world and encourages viewers to watch his live stream with Greg Terry who provided some great insights into this. He also notes that Ukraine has been very successful in their spoofing operations.
- Le Monde reports that Ukraine, with the use of electronic warfare, has been able to change the coordinates of Shahid drones, redirecting them back to Russia and Belarus. Between 24-26 November 43 were re-directed to Belarus.
- Although Ukraine had good interception rates for the recent attacks, 9 cruise missiles and 3 S-300 missiles still got through. Even if these don't hit their intended target they will still cause significant damage when they land.
- This was a massive attack which included a mix of missiles (80-90 in total according to Max 24). The attack resulted in damage to energy infrastructure and power cuts in a number of cities including: Lutsk, Rivne, Kyiv and Odessa.
- Tim White gave regular updates on the attacks throughout the day.
- A number of residential buildings were damaged in Odessa.
- The air raid alert in Kyiv lasted for 9 and a half hours. Jonathan reflects on the psychological impact of these attacks, noting that people can either try to sleep through it (risking injury/death) or go down to the metro stations - but after a while this takes its toll.
- Jonathan analyses a map showing an approximation of where the missile attacks took place. Although attacks were widespread, there was a focus on the West of the country.
- No report states that cluster munitions were used in a number of regions and that these had specifically targeted civilian infrastructure. Zelensky has spoken out to condemn their use, noting that they make it harder to repair the damage to the energy infrastructure.
- A number of regions are experiencing power outages.
- Ukraine has had to implement emergency power shutdowns which is indicative of the severity of the attack.
- Lviv in particular is going to have to endure strict power scheduling for the foreseeable future as a result of 2 critical infrastructure hits (Andri Hodik, deputy head of the Lviv Regional Military Administration).
Ukrainian Strikes on Russia
🎦 20:29-21:33⏩
- Ukraine carried out drone attacks on Krasnodar Krai and Rostov.
- The extent and effectiveness is unclear and there has been no official comment from Ukraine.
- Jonathan notes that this has been the case a lot recently and wonders if this is because the attacks are ineffective, because Russia is doing a good job with operational security, or Ukraine are and don't want to reveal how much damage they are inflicting. He concludes that we simply don't know.
More on Ukrainian Strikes on Russia
🎦 21:33-23:16⏩
- Jonathan takes a tea break.
- He shares footage that confirms that strikes took place in Krasnodar Krai. A number of other settlements were hit too, including Slavyansk-on-Kuban, Krymsk and Taganrog.
- Satellite imagery showing the aftermath of the Ukrainian attack on an oil depot in Kaluga three nights ago was shared. Of the 10 oil tanks, 3 were destroyed, 1 damaged and 6 undamaged (40% damaged). Jonathan notes that there could be other unseen damage/heat damage (he recalls a viewer mentioning this on his thread previously).
Russian Infrastructure Problems
🎦 23:16-24:05⏩
Jonathan reports on more general infrastructure problems within Russia:
- Several districts in Berdsk (Novosibirsk region) with a population of around 100,000 have been left without hot water and heating.
- He notes the irony of Russia bombing Ukraine's infrastructure, whilst their own fails.
- Many of the systems are Soviet-era and in need of repair/maintenance.
- With the war in Ukraine, Russia does not have the money to maintain/upgrade these systems.
POW Exchange and Atrocities
🎦 24:05-25:54⏩
- Russia has offered the largest POW exchange so far: 630 for 630
- Jonathan notes that this is good news.
- More news has come to light about a mass shooting of Ukrainian POWs in Petrovka, near Prokhorovka on 13 November. 5 Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded in a house and forced to come out. They were made to lie on the ground and were then murdered with automatic weapons.
- He shares a video of a Russian soldier who has returned from the front. He is clearly agitated and says that the only reason people go to fight is for the money. There is no patriotism. The soldier says that the bodies of dead Russian soldiers litter Ukraine and that no-one bothers to retrieve them. Jonathan encourages his viewers to watch the 55-second video. He picks out some quotes from the video:
- "In the meat grinder, I returned nothing"
- "They get paid nothing"
- Jonathan notes that the narrative that 100% of soldiers are fighting for the Motherland is BS.
Russian Economic Update
🎦 25:54-31:35⏩
- Jonathan gives an update on the Russian economy which is in trouble.
- He refers to the collapse of the Ruble which he discussed in a previous video and shares a post by Tymofiy Mylovanov (President of the Kyiv School of Economics and former Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine)
- Food inflation in Russia has surged by 70%.
- Potatoes are up 73%.
- Butter is up 30%
- True inflation since 2022 is 71.4% - this is being hidden from the Russian people.
- Officially it is 8.5% but this is "BS". Jonathan notes that there are different ways of calculating inflation, but regardless, the rate is far higher than is being reported.
- GDP growth has slowed.
- Q1 - 5.4%
- Q2 - 4.1%
- Q3 - 3.1%
- He notes that these figures don't provide a full picture because the growth is completely dependent on the defence sector.
- Russia is having to divert resources away from infrastructure, health and education because of the war.
- Contract soldiers are earning three times the average wage. They get large signing-on bonuses and death in service benefits.
- Debts of up to 10 million Rubles ($100,000) are being written off in a bid to get people to sign up. The total payments for signing up could be as high as $135,000. Jonathan refers to this as "deathonomics". It shows how desperate Russia is to avoid a mass mobilisation.
- Over the last 3 months the dollar has risen by 18% against the Ruble. Jonathan shares a chart showing this. It reached 113.15 at the end of play last night.
- Mortgage rates are over 28%
- Interest rates are at a record high of 21% (the highest since 1999)
- Property developers in Russia are failing because people can't afford mortgages.
- Jonathan highlights the ridiculous situation where Russians are now using Lada civilian vehicles to attack Ukrainian positions because they are so short of equipment - even with the defence industry operating at capacity.
- Sanctions continue to bite with 9 countries (including China) stopping servicing Gazprom Bank Union Pay cards. These are: Hungary, Vietnam, Germany, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Turkey, UAE and Thailand.
- It is now almost impossible to service Russian planes because of the sanctions and there are an increasing number of incidents where they are catching fire. He cites the example of the Sukhoi Superjet 100 in Antalya.
- Tim White has been writing about food prices in Russia.
- Jonathan shares some of the price rises (from Rostat figures he shared recently). These are for 2024 and show an increase of 12%.
- The Russian Central Bank suspended Ruble trading yesterday after the currency tanked. Jonathan notes the irony of all the people who said that sanctions wouldn't work, highlighting that sanctioning Gazprom and other banks, along with the macroeconomic problems in Russia, has had a huge impact.
- Russia is pivoting away from unfriendly currencies towards friendly currencies.
- There is not the foreign exchange available to support the Ruble as there is no longer the inflow of hard currency. Russia is reliant on the Ruble - which no-one wants.
- Jonathan shares a chart which shows that the net inflow of hard currency from goods trade has diminished.
- He highlights the issue of runaway credit growth in Russia (which even the 21% interest rate can't contain).
- The Bank of Russia has suspended purchases of foreign exchange until the end of 2024 because of this.
- Jonathan shares a post from Sergei Aleksashenko (ex-deputy finance minister and ex-deputy chairman of the Russian central bank) on BlueSky about the Russian economy. Russian fruit and vegetable importers are losing contracts and local producers are rubbing their hands because it will mean a sharp increase in prices, However, they don't have the stock available because the harvest was poor, so the fruit and vegetables in the shops are imported - and very expensive.
- The TLDR - the Russian economy is in trouble.
Putin's New Threats
🎦 31:35-33:06⏩
- Putin has emerged to make more threats against Ukraine.
- He has threatened to target decision-making centres in Kyiv with the Iskander-M (which has a range of up to 500km)
- The targets are being selected by the Russian General Staff and Ministry of Defence. This was announced at the CSTO summit in Kazakhstan.
- Putin claims that Russia has more advanced and long-range counterparts to all the weapons that have been supplied to Ukraine by the West. He is attempting to bring the CSTO member states under his "nuclear umbrella".
Humorous Interlude - The Russian Trolley Problem
🎦 33:06-34:34⏩
- Jonathan recalls a video he shared previously which showed a sapper working next to a road. The sapper was trying to warn an oncoming Russian vehicle about the mines. The vehicle hit him, knocking him over and then drove over the mines, causing an explosion.
- This reminds him of the classic "Trolley Problem" in philosophy: "A runaway trolley is about to run over five people. Do you pull a lever to kill one person to save the five?". Jonathan notes that there are a lot of trolley memes online.
- His friend, Tom Williamson, sent him a meme which he shares: "Russian Trolley Problem: A friendly vehicle is speeding down a road you have just mined. If you do nothing, they will hit the mines and blow themselves up. If you attempt to stop them, they will run you over, hit the mines and blow themselves up. Why are they so effing stupid?". Jonathan enjoys the philosophical humour.
The Poignant Reality of War
🎦 34:34-35:56⏩
- Jonathan shares a poignant quote from Ilya Ponomarenko (author and former Kyiv Independent Journalist): "The other day, I was giving a ride to an Azov guy I know, and he was like, 'Sometimes I find myself praying that the next shell comes from me and delivers me from this hell on earth. Sometimes Russians on comms don't get it why we laugh as we repel their meat grinder assaults. And we laugh and smile because we're only waiting on them to bring us the sweet death and the eternal calmness in silence. When you're fresh, it's all adrenaline. But when you're exhausted, and when you've lost so many friends, you think of death as salvation. Yet, you keep doing what we do. We fight and die for the unthankful. And the 15 days I finally have as my leave is just a joke on us.'"
- Ilya goes on to say that: "Heaven forgive us for not being thankful enough for what Ukrainian soldiers have done for us and the entire world all this time".
Wrap up
🎦 35:56-36:00⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I was unable to find any information about the "Vandal" drone mentioned in relation to Ukrainian losses. Everything else was clear.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a multi-part video so I need to make sure I include "Part 1" in the title. Jonathan mentions that this video covers news overnight and other news. I will need to listen/read carefully to ensure I understand his key points and opinions for the summaries. For the quote, I need to choose something particularly significant/meaningful/humorous.
